Eden’s team tracked RSV-A rates until early 2020, concluding that their origins were “a 50-50 call”: they either moved within Australia or entered from foreigner when tens of thousands returned home as Australia prepared to close its borders and became located due to the closure of the state border.
Although modelers predicted that RSV would return after the blockade in greater numbers due to the fact that children had no immunity to previous exposure, it was assumed that this would happen during the winter. The wave of summer infections, also seen in parts of Europe and Israel, was a surprise.
“It was something we had never seen before,” Eden said, noting that there was no increase in cases last summer possibly due to high COVID-19 transmission earlier this year. “Viruses tend to be suppressed a bit; they are interposed between them “.
Professor Peter Collignon, an infectious disease doctor and ANU microbiologist, said the past two years had revealed many things about the behavior of respiratory viruses.
“The VRS never went away, but the flu is interesting because it really seems like we care about everything, and now it’s happening sooner and with more numbers than a few years ago,” he said, adding that he had previously assumed that the flu existed in the undetected community. levels during the summer.
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Collignon said the winter increase in respiratory infections would likely have a greater impact on children than previous seasons, with reduced immunity due to lower virus rates over the past two years.
Children and teens have accounted for more than half of all flu cases this year in NSW, which is experiencing an early flu season.
Starting Wednesday, flu shots will be free for all NSW residents, following state-funded vaccines for those not on the federal program.
As pandemic restrictions in NSW have eased, data show that cases of RSV and other respiratory infections, including rhinovirus and parainfluenza, are on the rise.
According to NSW Health Respiratory Surveillance reports, there were 1,140 cases of RSV confirmed by a PCR test in the week ending May 22, compared to 766 the previous week and 508 the previous week.
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Some 930 children under the age of five were hospitalized with bronchiolitis, a lung infection usually caused by RSV, in May, with about 40% hospitalized.
Eden is conducting a genomic analysis of the recent wave of RSV cases and hopes that both the increase in the social mix and the reopening of international borders will drive infections.
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