The most contagious variant of Covid so far is dominant in England, sequencing data show that experts warn it could lead to pandemic peak infections.
Data from the Sanger Institute, one of the largest Covid surveillance centers in the UK, shows that six out of 10 positive swabs it examined the week through June 25 were the BA.5 version of Omicron.
It has now officially displaced BA.2, which caused infections to breach 4 million in April and caused NHS chiefs to demand the return of the masks just days after the number 10 dropped all restrictions.
BA.5, which is also catching steam in the US and across Europe, is believed to be a third more transmissible than its ancestor, considered as infectious as measles. Government advisers, however, believe it is just as mild.
Experts told MailOnline that the strain could bring daily infections to a “higher point than previously seen.” Covid cases have already doubled in the last month and NHS hospitals have seen an increase in admissions.
In view of the current resurgence of the virus and concerns that may disrupt the health service’s efforts to address its growing backwardness, officials are said to be considering expanding the fall booster vaccine campaign to cover all older people. 50 years.
Hours before resigning over a lack of confidence in Boris Johnson, former Health Secretary Sajid Javid said he had told the NHS to prepare for a wider-than-expected program.
The interim guide recommended restricting beatings to nursing home residents over the age of 65, front-line social and health workers, and vulnerable youth.
Sanger Institute data show that BA.5 was behind 58.6% of all infections it rubbed during the week until June 25, a fifth more than a week earlier, when it caused the 48 , 8% of cases. Since it was first detected in South Africa in February, it has raised concerns about the speed of its growth. Sanger Institute figures show that its prevalence has almost doubled every week. It caused only 5.8% of infections in the week to May 21, increasing to 10.4% in the week of May 28, 21.6% until June 4, and 36.6% in seven days until June 11th.
Covid infections have soared in England to just over 1.8 million according to the latest data from the National Statistics Office
This graph shows the number of deaths directly by Covid recorded in England and Wales. The number of deaths currently recorded in these nations is much lower than in previous years and a large fraction of those observed in early 2021.
Hours before resigning over lack of confidence in Boris Johnson, former Health Secretary Sajid Javid (pictured today) told the cabinet that a fourth dose should be offered to an additional six million people to control hospital admissions amid rising infection, in the face of fears of invalidation. the NHS this winter
People over the age of 50 could receive a FOURTH stroke from Covid in the autumn to avert the NHS winter crisis as Omicron raises new cases and hospital admissions
Those over the age of 50 will be offered a Covid booster shot as early as the fall, as ministers plan the latest fight against an increase in the number of infections.
It is understood that about six million people are in line for a fourth shot, as the latest subvariants of the Omicron strain continue to spread rapidly.
Outbreaks across Europe are fueled by Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which are believed to be even more infectious than the BA.2 strain that caused infections in the UK to reach a record high. of 4.1 million in April.
Hospitalizations have tripled in the past month, with about 1,500 patients infected with the virus now being taken to wards every day.
Former Minister Sajid Javid had addressed cabinet colleagues about the recent rise in infections, but The Times reported that new restrictions on the letters are not yet understood.
Javid, who resigned as secretary of health just hours after issuing his warning, had updated the cabinet on Covid’s situation for the first time in months after infections spread in recent weeks.
Instead of increasing the return of restrictions, health officials are said to be prepared to encourage increased vaccination rates during the fall in time for any winter rush.
Since BA.5 was first detected in South Africa in February, experts have been concerned about the speed of its growth.
Data from the Sanger Institute show it was behind 58.6 percent of all infections during the week through June 25, a fifth more than a week earlier.
Until now, its prevalence had almost doubled every week. It caused only 5.8% of infections in mid-May.
Meanwhile, the separate but closely related Omicron BA.4 subsoc, which was labeled as a variant of concern along with BA.5, appears to have slowed.
It was just behind 25.8 percent of cases the most recent week, compared to 25.1 percent a week earlier.
Although these data provide the most up-to-date picture, the researchers noted that the positive tests they sequence are not a representative sample of the population.
And since the government’s £ 2bn free trial scheme was removed, it has examined fewer swabs, which could lead to discrepancies in its data.
However, figures from the UK Health Safety Agency (UKHSA) paint a similar picture.
In a report last week, it noted that BA.5 would “most likely” become dominant in the UK, estimating that 39.5 per cent of all cases in England were caused by the strain on 15 June. Their data show that BA.5 was the most important. predominant in the southeast.
The UKHSA said the growth advantage of BA.5 over BA.2 “would plausibly lead to greater community transmission.”
The previously dominant strain caused Covid infections to spread to record highs in April. Virus monitoring data from the National Bureau of Statistics, now considered the best barometer to control the outbreak, showed that 4.1 million people in England became infected during the last peak.
Its most recent update, based on tens of thousands of random swabs, shows that approximately 1.8 million became infected in late June, a third more than the previous week.
In addition to the new variants, celebrations for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, mid-term holidays and warm weather are also believed to be fueling the latest hike. Some have also pointed out that the British confuse Covid’s symptoms with hay fever.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: “Currently it looks like BA.4 / BA.5 together will increase the total number of new infections per day to one more point. higher than previously seen “.
But he added that BA.5 can cause “less serious disease on average due to infection” compared to previous strains, although it is too early to know for sure.
“But of course, the total amount of serious illness depends on both the number of infections and the risk of serious illness per infection, so [it is] not yet [possible] to say he has a lot of serious illness / how many deaths will occur in total, ”he added.
Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, told MailOnline: “We’ve known for a long time that another major wave, the third, was coming to the UK and now we’re very much inside.”
He said it is mainly due to BA.5, which “once again demonstrates that the ability of the virus to evolve shows no signs of reduction.”
He said the fact that people go to life largely as normal “shows how far we have come, in terms of limiting serious illness and death due to this virus.”
Extremely high rates of immunity from the launch of vaccination in the UK and repeated waves have drastically reduced the threat of the virus, making it something resembling the flu.
But Dr. Griffin noted that the “total dependence on vaccines and antivirals” to control the outbreak, rather than using measures such as masks and tests, does not take into account that immunity decreases over time and that the virus can evolve.
He called for greater access to Covid testing, masks in crowded spaces and support for people to isolate themselves when they are infected, which “would not only reduce the impact of big waves, but would do more to reduce ‘constant plateau of infections we’ve seen since then’. last July ‘.
Professor Gary McLean, an immunologist at London Metropolitan University, told MailOnline that whenever a new variant emerges that has a transmission advantage, it “displaces the previously dominant variant”.
He said: “This could be due to better infection of cells, which make more copies of viruses, which last longer in the airways of infected people or better survival rates in the environment.”
“This is the normal evolution of the RNA virus in real time, most mutations we do not see, as they do not give advantage to the virus or are harmful.
“But those mutations that are tolerated and / or provide a physical advantage are selected over time until they dominate.
Sanger Institute data show that BA.5 (dark pink) was behind 58.6 percent of all infections it rubbed during the week through June 25, one-fifth more than a week earlier, when it caused 48.8 percent of cases.
Figures from the UK Health Safety Agency show that BA.5 (yellow) was behind 39.5 per cent of all cases in England during the week to 15 June.
The latest NHS England data show that 1,572 people infected with Covid were admitted to hospital on June 29, up 38.7% in one week. The number of hospitalized patients increased by 39.1% to 9,389 during the week of July 1, while the number of patients with severely ill viruses, requiring medical ventilation, increased by 30.4%. However, official figures show that only 37.5 percent of these patients are hospitalized primarily because they are not well with the virus, while the remaining two-thirds were hospitalized for another reason and they also tested positive for the virus.
There is still no increase in deaths from Covid: only FIVE more deaths from viruses were recorded in England and Wales last week, although cases have more than doubled in the last month
Covid deaths in England and Wales remain below 25 daily although infections have almost doubled during the …