On Thursday afternoon, the NHC began referring to the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 and issued a tropical storm watch for the southern parts of the east and west coasts of Florida, as well as the Florida Keys. The watch includes Miami, Sarasota, Key West, West Palm Beach and Melbourne.
A tropical storm watch was issued for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the island of Youth.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One was 95 miles northwest of Cozumel, with maximum winds of 35 mph as it moved north at 6 mph, the NHC said in a 23:00 ET update.
This causes the storm to intensify and become a tropical storm sometime on Friday afternoon, in hopes of making landfall in southwest Florida in the early hours of Saturday afternoon, forecasters said. of the NHC.
A “potential tropical cyclone” is a term that the NHC developed as a way to issue clocks and warnings for a storm system that is expected to develop as it approaches land. Prior to this change, the NHC was unable to issue clocks and alerts until a tropical storm had developed, which limited the delivery time for critical alerts.
In this case, the NHC predicts a 90% chance that this group of storms will turn into a depression or tropical storm over the next 48 hours. For the storm to be named Alex, the first name in the 2022 hurricane season, the system will need to be strengthened and with sustained winds of 39 mph or more. Currently, maximum sustained winds are 35 mph.
“Whether the storm is organized or not, a major flood event is possible in South Florida and the Keys,” says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “It’s too early to tell where the heaviest rain will be because it’s not even a storm yet, but models indicate that 12 to 16 inches of rain is possible in the worst areas.”
“There is still some variability in how this system will be monitored, but heavy rainfall capable of dispersing numerous sudden floods is certainly plausible in South Florida and the Keys,” he said Thursday morning. Meteorological Forecasting Center (WPC).
They are predicting a moderate risk – level 3 of 4 – of excessive rainfall, leading to sudden flooding.
Deep tropical humidity will rise before the likely storm and in South Florida throughout the day on Friday and Saturday.
South Florida is most likely on the way
Computer forecasting models are beginning to agree that a tropical storm or depression will form and affect South Florida.
“The latest guidance model is beginning to reach an agreement on this low step somewhere in the southern part of the Florida peninsula on Saturday,” the Miami National Meteorological Service said Thursday morning. .
The road is important because if you take a route further south, this could keep densely populated areas of South Florida away from the severe threat coming from the northeast side of tropical storms and hurricanes.
“Strong winds and an isolated tornado or two will be the main severe threat on Friday and Saturday,” the NWS said in Miami. “These details remain uncertain, as they will depend on the exact track the system makes. A track further south would place the northeast quadrant above the water, which would be a better scenario in terms of severe weather south of Florida “.
So the road matters, even if it’s just a tropical storm.
Chad Myers warns that until the NHC locates the exact center of this storm, forecasting models will have a hard time accurately predicting the path of this storm.
“A hurricane fighter jet is heading to the area today and hopefully it can find the true center of any traffic,” Myers says.
This information will be used in computer models from Thursday evening, giving a better indication of the path and the potential strength of the storm.
On Wednesday night, without knowing the exact location of the center of the storm system, the American model had 3 different low-pressure locations at the same time, Myers explains. “For me, this indicates that wind shear in the area can slow down the organization of the potential storm and, for the time being, prevent it from growing rapidly.”
This system has two of the three ingredients needed to form a hurricane
For a hurricane to form, you need “warm ocean water, low wind shear and a bunch of pre-existing storms … right now we have 2 of the 3,” says Myers.
Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction as you move toward the sky. If it is strong, such as in the Gulf of Mexico, it makes it difficult for hurricanes to form.
“We have a lot of opposing forces here,” Myers says. “It’s like trying to speed up the car and not realize the emergency brake is on.”
If the brake, the wind shear, decreases, there is little chance that this storm will intensify more than expected.
This is the least likely scenario, however.
Another above average hurricane season forecast
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its forecast for this hurricane season.
They are forecasting one year above average, with 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.
There are several factors that contribute to a “busy” hurricane season.
“We’re in an active period,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said. “There are certain ingredients that drive the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.”
One is La Niña’s existing conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
This phenomenon creates colder-than-average ocean temperatures around the equator in the Pacific and causes meteorological impacts around the world.
La Niña has favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic, in contrast to El Niño.
This morning, Colorado State University released an update on its forecast. It is now calling for a hurricane season far above with 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
This is the highest number of so-called storms the CSU has forecast for the June season, Phil Klotzbach, author of the forecast, told CNN. In 2020, the university’s forecasting center predicted 19 storms during its June launch, but that number included three storms that were named before the season began.
No storms have formed this year.
CNN meteorologist Gene Norman contributed to this report.