- Tropical storm clocks and warnings have been issued in parts of South and Central Florida.
- This is before the expected formation of a depression or tropical storm in the Gulf.
- The system will bring soaking rain to parts of Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas.
- Wind shear and dry air will limit the intensity of this system, which would be called Alex if it becomes a tropical storm.
Tropical storm warnings and warnings have been issued in parts of Florida ahead of the likely formation of a depression or tropical storm in the Gulf that will bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to these areas over the weekend.
A low-pressure area near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing rain and storm clusters right now.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has dubbed this system “Potential Tropical Cyclone One”, a procedure that allows the NHC to issue warnings, clocks and warnings for a system that has not yet been developed but that involves a threat of tropical storm force winds. in land areas in 48 hours.
Due to models indicating slightly faster movement across the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm warnings have now been issued for the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida south of Englewood. Winds over 40 mph are expected in this area on Friday night or early Saturday.
Tropical storm clocks are also in effect from near Sarasota and Bradenton south to Englewood and along the Atlantic coast to the Volusia-Brevard County line. Strong tropical storm winds (39 mph or more) could reach these areas on Friday night or Saturday morning and could last until Saturday afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm clocks have also been raised in western Cuba, including the capital Havana, where tropical storm winds could occur on Friday. These watches have also been released for the northwestern Bahamas.
Clocks and notices
(Warning is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
The NHC expects this system to be strengthened until Tropical Storm Alex on Friday as it approaches Florida.
Current information and planned path
(The area shaded in red denotes the potential trajectory of the center of the tropical system. It is important to note that impacts (especially heavy rain, swell, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond its trajectory. expected.)
Fortunately, higher level winds over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to be strong, providing a strong wind shear that should limit the intensity of this system.
These strong higher-level winds should also deflect the system, meaning that most of its impacts from heavy rain and gusty winds could be relatively east and southeast of its center.
Keep this in mind when looking at the path provided above, which is the potential path to the center of the storm.
Dry air over the Gulf of Mexico can also be ingested by the system and help limit its intensity.
Current analysis of satellite and wind shear
(Cloud zones are shown in white. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in speed and wind direction with height, are shown in violet. Strong wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those that they try to develop.)
Chronology and potential impacts
Here is a general timeline that we expect from this system over the next few days.
-Friday: Soaking rain extends to southern Florida and continues to western Cuba. Tropical storm force winds could arrive at night.
-Saturday: The storm will move across the Florida peninsula with heavy rain, strong winds. Heavy rains are likely in the northwestern Bahamas. The system then moves to East Florida on Saturday night with conditions slowly improving.
-Sunday: The system will track the southeast coast of the United States. Strong winds could lift heavy surfing and dangerous currents along the southeast coast, even with much of the rain from this system remaining on the coast.
– Sunday night: the system moves in the open Atlantic far from the east coast.
South Florida, including the Florida Keys, western Cuba, and western Bahamas could collect between 4 and 10 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, from this system. This is where rainfall is most likely in this system.
Additional rain forecast until Sunday
Modest coastal flooding is possible in the South Florida Peninsula from the Florida Keys to Longboat Key near Sarasota, where it can flood up to 1 to 3 feet at high tide.
Golf is a hot spot in June
The Gulf of Mexico, Campeche Bay, and the western Caribbean Sea have historically been hot spots for development in June.
Last year, Tropical Storm Claudette formed, which then quickly moved ashore in Louisiana and deep south on Father’s Day weekend.
Points of origin of all tropical / subtropical storms in the Atlantic basin in June 1950 to 2021.
(Data: NOAA)
This is another reminder that now is a good time to develop or update your hurricane plan long before the first storm or hurricane of the season.
The Weather Company’s main journalistic mission is to report breaking news, the environment, and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.