WASHINGTON — As Russia and Ukraine reached a deal Friday to unblock Ukrainian grain exports, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan played the role of benevolent statesman.
Sitting next to the Secretary-General of the United Nations in an Ottoman palace in Istanbul, Mr. Erdogan said the deal, which Turkey helped broker, would benefit “all of humanity.”
President Biden’s administration welcomed the deal, which could ease a global food crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blockade of its ports. Officials expressed skepticism about whether Russia was acting in good faith, and Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian port city of Odesa less than a day after the pact was signed. Still, a White House spokesman had praised Erdogan for his efforts.
But privately, Mr. Erdogan has remained a source of substantial irritation to Biden administration officials.
Days before presiding over the grain deal, the Turkish autocrat renewed a warning that he could veto NATO plans to accept Sweden and Finland as members in the coming months, an act that would deeply embarrass the alliance and the Biden administration as they work to counter Russia. . And Congress this month expressed misgivings about Mr. Biden at a NATO summit in Spain last month to sell dozens of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
On Tuesday, Erdogan traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. The images of two main US rivals with Erdogan, the leader of a NATO country, clashed with the Western narrative of a deeply isolated Iran and Russia, analysts said.
Then, on Friday, a White House spokesman reiterated U.S. concerns about Mr. Erdogan to mount a new invasion of northern Syria against US-backed Kurdish fighters he considers terrorists.
Taken together, Mr. Erdogan’s actions — and Mr. Biden’s limited ability to curb them — underscore the Turkish leader’s unique position as a military ally who is often at odds with the agenda of his Western allies. For American officials, it’s often a maddening role.
“Erdogan is basically the Joe Manchin of NATO,” said Elizabeth Shackelford, a former Foreign Service officer, referring to the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia who has obstructed Mr. Biden’s domestic agenda. “He’s on our team, but then he does things that are clearly not good for our team. And I don’t see that changing.”
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But Biden administration officials say that completely canceling Mr. Erdogan would be self-destructive. His nation’s position at the crossroads of east and west is strategically important and allows him to be an interlocutor with even more troublesome neighbors, as demonstrated by the grain deal, which created a demilitarized corridor through the Black Sea for agricultural exports of Ukraine.
A senior US official said much of Erdogan’s problematic behavior was a function of his political weakness in Turkey, where the inflation rate soared to nearly 80 percent last month. Hoping to divert attention from his mismanaged economy, Mr. Erdogan has turned to forceful displays of nationalism and demagoguery in the face of the threat from the PKK, a Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey, and Kurdish groups in Syria.
Major NATO initiatives, such as the proposed expansion of the 30-member alliance to include Sweden and Finland, require unanimous consent. Biden said in May that he hoped the two countries could come together “rapidly” in what would be a major strategic coup for Putin.
But Erdogan raised objections, complaining that both potential new members have provided political and financial support to the PKK, which the United States has designated a terrorist organization because of its history of violent attacks. US and NATO officials were concerned that the planned expansion could collapse into a major propaganda victory for Putin, who has long been working to split the alliance.
NATO leaders breathed a sigh of relief at their summit last month when Erdogan reached a deal with the leaders of Sweden and Finland, which pledged to act against terrorist organizations and adhere to agreements on ‘extradition with Turkey, which wants to prosecute PKK members living in these countries. .
Mr. Biden seemed especially grateful for the breakthrough. “I want to thank you especially for what you did to prepare the situation for Finland and Sweden,” he told Mr. Erdogan in the presence of journalists.
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July 23, 2022, 11:29 am ET
The two-page agreement said in blanket language that Sweden and Finland would address “pending requests to deport or extradite terrorist suspects from Turkey in a prompt and comprehensive manner.” But Turkish officials have said they expect the extradition of more than 70 people. It was unclear whether Sweden and Finland would agree or how Erdogan might react if they did not.
On Monday, Erdogan warned he could still “freeze” NATO expansion if his demands were not met.
Biden also told Erdogan in Spain that he supported the sale of 40 US F-16 fighter jets that Turkey ordered last fall, along with technology upgrades for dozens of fighters it already owns. Turkey wants these planes in part because the Trump administration scrapped plans to sell advanced F-35 fighter jets to the country in 2019 after Erdogan, in one of his more confusing recent moves, bought the anti-aircraft missile system S -400 from Russia challenging the USA. notices
Biden denied that he offered the planes to buy Mr. Erdogan for the expansion of NATO. “And there was no quid pro quo with it; it was just that we had to sell,” he said. “But I need congressional approval to be able to do that, and I think we can get that done.”
Congressional approval may not be given. And it was unclear whether Erdogan could block the proposed NATO expansion until a deal is reached on the F-16 jets.
This month, the House passed an amendment to an annual military policy bill that requires Mr. Biden to certify that any sale of the fighter jets is in the vital national interests of the United States and that Turkey will not use the planes to violate Greece’s airspace, its Aegean. Sea neighbor and fellow NATO ally, with whom Ankara is engaged in a bitter territorial dispute.
Representative Chris Pappas, Democrat of New Hampshire and sponsor of the amendment, also cited the purchase of Mr. Erdogan of the Russian missile system and the equivocal position on the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Erdogan has called the invasion “unacceptable” but has not joined the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Russia.
“That’s enough,” said Mr. fathers “Turkey has played both sides of the fence in Ukraine. They have not been the reliable ally we should be able to count on.”
“I think the Biden administration needs to take a stronger position,” he added.
Once the White House formally requests that Congress approve the sale of the planes, Biden will need the support of other influential members who have been highly critical of Erdogan, including the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez of New Jersey
Mr. Menendez has previously questioned whether Turkey belongs in NATO. And at a hearing last month on the NATO expansion proposal, he said that “in time of the essence, Turkey’s 11th-hour concerns that hinder this process only serve Putin’s interests.” .
Mr. Menendez also issued a statement last month with his Republican counterpart on the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, sternly warning Mr. Erdogan against his threat to invade northern Syria. He was joined by the Democratic chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Representative Gregory W. Meeks of New York, and his Republican counterpart, Representative Michael McCaul of Texas.
In the statement, the lawmakers said the potential invasion would have “disastrous results,” threatening local operations against Islamic State remnants and exacerbating Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
A Pentagon official recently added to the US warnings.
“We are strongly opposed to any Turkish operation in northern Syria and have made our objections clear to Turkey,” Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense, told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this month. “ISIS will take advantage of this campaign.”
Some of the harshest critics of Mr. Erdogan warns of a never-ending cycle, in which the Turkish leader wins concessions from the United States and other NATO allies, such as new fighter jets and a tougher line against Kurdish militia fighters, only to escalate their demands in the future.
“This dance around the F-16 — it’s fighter jet diplomacy, and that’s a mask for what’s really at stake here,” said Mark Wallace, founder of the Turkish Democracy Project, a group highly critical of Erdogan and his turn to authoritarianism. “A good ally, let alone a good NATO ally, does not use blackmail to get what it wants at key moments in the alliance’s history.”
Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Aspen, Colorado.