The UFC returns to Singapore with an 11-fight card for the UFC 275, highlighted by a couple of title fights in the men’s lightweight and women’s flyweight divisions.
The first preliminaries start at 7pm ET on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN + before moving on to ESPN at 8pm ET. The main five-fight PPV card will begin at 10:00 PM ET on ESPN +.
After examining all your betting options, a typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.
So in addition to the money lines and the plus / minus, I will explain how I plan to bet each fight card, including the exact winning methods, the accessories of the winning round and whether the match will be decided or finished within the distance. .
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. ET hours every hour.
Projected probabilities of UFC 275
Below you can find my fair odds money line projection for each of the 12 Saturday fights. In the next section, you will discover the predictions for these fights to end at a distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission.
Chances from Saturday morning and via BetMGM.
UFC 275 Near Screenings
In addition to creating a crowdsourcing projection for money line plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout or presentation, which allows us to determine the fair odds for each fight to reach the distance. or for each fighter to win within the game. distance.
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UFC odds 275
Advance Preliminary Card
Joselyne Edwards Vs. Ramona Pascual
Women’s Featherweight Odds Predictions Joselyne Edwards Odds -175 Ramona Pascual Odds +145 Rounds Above / Under 2.5 (-225 / +160)
Collective screenings: Joselyne Edwards (56.3%)
Pascual looked very lasting in his promotional debut against Josiane Nunes. As a former lightweight, she may be the biggest fighter in the cage against Joselyne Edwards, a natural rooster weight that is moving up to 145 for this fight.
Edwards should be the top striker, while Pascual will look for landings (3 of 10 against Nunes, 3:41 of control time) against Edwards, who usually accepts a low position and works with his back.
Since Friday’s weighting, Pascual’s monetary line has risen from +125 (44.4% implicit) to +145 (40.8%) implicit, and now presents value as a disadvantaged line of money compared to my projection (+129).
Still, I’d rather bet that the fight goes into the distance (projected -210, listed -175 in DraftKings) with a more significant advantage.
In addition, Pascual would splash to win by decision (projected +252, listed +300 in BetMGM) in what is a close and competitive scrap, with a relatively low finishing potential on both sides.
Bets
- The fight goes to the decision (-175, 0.5u) in DraftKings
- Ramona Pascual wins by Decision (+300, 0.25u) at BetMGM
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Silvana Gomez Juárez vs. Na Liang
Women’s Straw Fighting Odds Silvana Gomez Juarez Odds -130 Na Liang Odds +105 Rounds Above / Under TBA
Collective screenings: Silvana Gomez Juarez (55%)
Liang is an extremely aggressive fighter, and explains why the total is 1.5 rounds for a straw-weight women’s fight. Historically, the 115-pound split has seen 67% of all fights come at a distance.
By contrast, Liang has 24 professional fights and 23 fights ended in the first or second round. “Dragon Girl” is 0-1 on the scorecards and 2-0 on disqualification, mostly against low-level competitions.
Liang shoots the shots at high speed and tends to set a pace he can’t keep up. But he can have a significant fight-fighting advantage over Juarez, who has lost his two UFC contests by the arm.
If Liang can bring this fight to the mat, he may be able to present Juárez relatively quickly.
Juarez is the top forward, and if he can keep the fight afloat, I hope he will be able to separate his opponent and possibly score a wear stop in the second or third round.
While I don’t see value on either side of the money line, I project value in the fight to make a decision (projected +174, +220 listing at BetMGM).
And although I project value on Juarez by decision (projected +264 listing +310 on BetMGM), I prefer value on rounds over 1.5 (-125 on DraftKings) and the struggle to make a decision (projected +173 , listing + 220 at BetMGM).
Essentially, this fight has a 42% difference between the average completion rate in straw weight (33%) and the implicit probabilities (-300, or 75%).
Bets
- More than 1.5 rounds (-125, 0.5u risk) in DraftKings
- The fight goes to the decision (+220, 0.25u) at BetMGM
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Preliminary Card
Rayo Vallecano vs Salamanca Kyung Ho Kang
Rooster Weight Odds Batgerel Danaa Odds -130 Kyung Ho Kang Odds +105 Rounds Above / Under TBA
Collective screenings: Batgerel Danaa (52.5%)
Danaa returns to the octagon after suffering a knockout defeat on March 26, and I don’t love a quick change for any fighter coming out of a violent loss.
Mongolian hunting has a lot of power but loses effectiveness after the first round. Danaa may have a hard time hurting Kyung Ho Kang, whose only defeat by technical knockout came in football in his third fight of his career in 2008.
If “Mr. Perfect ”can withstand the early storm of Danaa, he should start taking charge of the fight in the last two frames. Although he has no significant power, Kang is the tallest and tallest fighter (two inches tall, three inches wide), the most technical striker, and possesses all the fighting.
Since her defeat to debut against Alateng Heili, Danaa has not faced any attempt at elimination. Kang is at his best when he fights behind his range weapons and changes level occasionally (2.23 demolition every 15 minutes, 59% accuracy).
I hope Danaa wins the first round at a decent pace, but the first round should be her best round before Kang starts taking over this fight. While you might expect a live ticket to Kang after round 1, I’m willing to bet on +115 or better before the fight (projected +110).
Kang by decision (projected +201, listed +225 in DraftKings) could offer maximum value from a close perspective. Still, I will stick with Kang’s money line and look to join this live position.
Bets
- Kyung-ho Kang (+115) and DraftKings
- Live betting Kyung Ho Kang after round 1
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Brendan Allen v. Jacob Malkoun
Medium Weight Fighting Odds Brendan Allen Odds -300 Jacob Malkoun Odds +240 Rounds Above / Under 1.5 (-165 / +125)
Collective screenings: Brendan Allen (72.6%)
Malkoun does not have the most fan-friendly fighting style. After being knocked out immediately by Phil Hawes in his UFC debut, Malkoun has responded with a couple of annoying wins against Abdul Razak Alhassan and AJ Dobson accumulating knockouts and control time.
In 30 minutes of octagon against these two opponents, Malkoun got 14 knocks in 40 attempts (35%) and spent 20:58 (70% of fights) in control positions.
The question is whether Malkoun can defeat and hold Allen, a well-rounded middleweight who trains with a superior camp at Sanford MMA.
Allen has some durability concerns, but Malkoun is not the type of fighter who threatens a knockout. And even if Malkoun can defeat him, Allen is a cunning grappler who can reverse positions or get back on his feet.
That said, I have constantly underestimated Malkoun’s maximum pressure. In fact, he prioritizes the position over submission and does enough damage from the top to secure the rounds in his favor.
Standing, he is very slow and is likely to finish unless he can slow down the fight, create extensive fighting situations and put Allen on his back. Malkoun is a high-strength fighter with good endurance. He knows his limitations and will relentlessly chase down the pitfalls to maximize his potential to win.
While I don’t value either side of the money line or the totals, I see considerable disagreement in my assessment of Malkoun’s victory condition.
I projected a decision as 60% of Malkoun’s probability of victory (40% finish) and set the line at +508. And frankly, it could have done it closer to 70-75%.
The bet of his condition of victory (60-65% in the end).
Given this discrepancy, I bet Malkoun would win by decision, and reduce it to +650.
Bets
- Jacob Malkoun wins by decision (+900, 0.25u) at Bet365
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Steve Garcia v. Maheshate
Light Combat Odds Steve Garcia Quotes -185 Maheshate Quotes +150 Rounds Above / Under 1.5 (-140 / +100)
Collective screenings: Steve Garcia (62.5%)
Maheshate won a contract in Dana White’s Contender series last November as a major loser (closed between +400 and +575 according to the book) and, at 22, is one of the youngest fighters on the list.
However, this was his first victory against a record-breaking rival, and he still has a long way to go at that level. While Maheshate may have some fighting shortcomings, the Chinese wrestler showed a heart and excellent numbers to improve with age.
Garcia will seek to shuffle the knockouts whenever possible and win the fight exchanges. I doubt he wants to get involved in a fight with Maheshate, especially after he moved Charlie Ontiveros in his last fight.
I don’t see either man as a particularly powerful finalist, but this fight is expected to end at a significant time. A lightweight middleweight fight is a decision made 48% of the time, and the market indicates something closer to the 35% probability of this confrontation.
While I don’t project value on either side of the money line, I see this fight coming to a decision 44% of the time, much closer to the division average. I bet the more than 2.5 rounds (+140 on DraftKings) and the fight to make a decision (+180 on Caesars).
In addition, you can bet on Maheshate to win by decision (projected +433, listing +500 at BetMGM). Still, I prefer totals.
Bets
- More than 2.5 rounds (+140, 0.5u) in DraftKings
- The fight goes to the decision …