Amanda Nunes is at a crossroads.
In the main event of Saturday’s UFC 277, “The Lioness” has a chance to nearly erase the bitter taste of a loss to Julianna Peña, a loss that cost her the bantamweight title of the UFC, a seven-year undefeated streak and possibly. her case is unequivocally recognized as the greatest female wrestler of all time.
If Nunes goes out and makes a run for Peña as he was expected to do the first time around and as he has with so many challengers in the past, then December’s upset will be remembered as a notable blip in an otherwise irrefutable career. If Peña wins again, suddenly one of MMA’s biggest upsets will look more like a passing of the torch to an opponent who has Nunes’ number any day of the week. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot more on the line in this rematch than a shiny piece of metal.
The co-main event features two of the best flyweights in the world competing for an interim title with undisputed champion Deiveson Figueiredo temporarily sidelined. On the one hand, ex-champion Brandon Moreno is looking to regain the gold and set up a fourth fight with his Brazilian rival; on the other, Kai Kara-France is looking to avenge his 2019 loss to Moreno and bring another title home to New Zealand mastermind City Kickboxing’s gym.
In other main card action, veteran heavyweight Derrick Lewis takes on Sergei Pavlovich to claim a spot in the top 10, Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez square off in a flyweight battle that could create another challenger for Figueiredo’s title, and Magomed Ankalaev can secure a potential. championship opportunity with a standout performance against lightweight stalwart Anthony Smith.
What: UFC 277
Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas
When: Saturday 30 July. Four-fight prelims begin on ESPN+ at 6pm ET, followed by four-fight prelims on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+ at 8pm ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10:00 PM ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate position in the overall MMA fighting rankings)
Julianna Penya (1) vs. Amanda Nunes (2)
Is this a new beginning for Amanda Nunes or the beginning of the end?
Nunes has spoken openly about being satisfied with everything she has accomplished in her extraordinary career, going so far as to say in a June 2020 interview that she was contemplating retirement. He has won UFC titles in two divisions. She wants to train someday. She is a mother. she is happy And if there’s one thing we know in the fight game, it’s that complacency can lead to calamity when it’s time to step back into that cage.
None of these factors are why Julianna Peña beat Nunes in their first meeting. Peña has a style tailor-made to frustrate Nunes: a great fight, an abundance of well-earned confidence and a bottomless gas tank. All of those strengths were on display when she upset Nunes, and there’s no reason to believe she can’t do it again, this time with the knowledge that her strategy worked not just in theory, but in reality.
Skill for skill, we know Nunes is a better fighter than Peña. She has the advantage in knockout power and is a better fighter, so I’m willing to accept the argument that she didn’t perform at her best at UFC 269. Ideally, Nunes saw this loss as a valuable learning experience and we see in her a renewed fire.
I’ve just seen too many Nunes wins to count, and while I think she’ll be more methodical than dominant on Saturday with an emphasis on conserving her energy, this version of Nunes is good enough to beat Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will give it everything she has to beat Nunes again, and while I expect her to give Nunes hell for 25 minutes, I also expect Nunes to get a competitive decision.
Nunes, #AndAgain.
Choose: Nunes
Brandon Moreno (2) vs. Kai Kara-France (T4)
Speaking of #AndAgain, I like Brandon Moreno’s chances to be champion again.
Kai Kara-France has never looked better, but Moreno has also improved by leaps and bounds since their first meeting and already had the upper hand then. Moreno’s aggressiveness is difficult to deal with, not to mention the diversity of his attacks. There are more ways to win this one.
On the other hand, Kara-France has a strong right hand and excellent timing on her feet. He also put up a strong defense against Askar Askarov, one of the best fighters in the flyweight division, so if Moreno decides to mix in a fight Kara-France is ready for it. These two are very evenly matched and while Moreno won a clear decision the first time around, 10 more minutes to work with could change the complexion of this matchup.
The safe bet is to go with the fighter who has done this championship dance before and that is Moreno. Three times actually. It’s this advantage in title fight experience that makes me feel confident that she’ll get the better of Kara-France again, though I’m also confident that this isn’t the last time we see Kara-France fight for a belt UFC
Moreno by decision.
Selection: Moreno
Derrick Lewis (6) vs. Sergei Pavlovich
At the risk of being the subject of his next roast, I’ll just say it: I don’t think Derrick Lewis can win any more high-level forwards.
Here are Lewis’ recent wins: Chris Daukaus (Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist), Curtis Blaydes (much improved hands, but fighter at heart), Aleksei Oleinik (submission specialist with an aversion to standing) and Ilir Latifi (solid). boxer, but hasn’t threatened to knock anyone out in years). We know Lewis can handle the beaten competition. We no longer know if he can win a back-and-forth battle with his feet.
We also don’t know how good Sergei Pavlovich’s impact really is, but there is plenty of evidence that the huge Russian can do it with his hands. Twelve knockouts, all in the first round, that’s a recipe for success against the often sluggish Lewis. If Pavlovich finds the timing early, Lewis could be in serious danger of taking his third knockout loss in his last four fights.
Lewis should work to close the distance and bully Pavlovich against the fence as he looks for trips to put him on his back. One thing we know for sure is that Lewis’ ground and pound is as deadly as ever. Pavlovich is more of an athlete with a wrestling background, much like Lewis himself, he can probably get out of the bottom position, but wrestling on the ground is a great way for Lewis to hurt his more ranked opponent.
Pavlovich sits just outside the top 15 in the global MMA fighting rankings and is poised to make a big jump at Lewis’ expense. This one takes him by knockout.
Selection: Pavlovich
Alexandre Pantoja (7) vs. Alex Perez (8)
The flyweight division is ridiculously deep right now.
For example, you could have put Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez in an interim title fight, and while they don’t have the name recognition of Moreno and Kara-France, the quality of the competition is just as high. Perez has already fought for a UFC title, albeit as an understudy, and Pantoja has two wins over Moreno (one from his season on The Ultimate Fighter).
I have Pantoja sliding into the next contender spot with a win over Perez on Saturday. Perez has quick hands and solid grappling, the latter of which could give Pantoja trouble, but Pantoja has serious pop when he starts throwing and his jiu-jitsu is elite. There aren’t many places where Perez can take this fight where Pantoja isn’t a threat.
The other factor to consider here is that Perez is susceptible to showing while Pantoja is never done. If you like this one to finish the distance, then Pantoja is the pick all the way. I see these two having some lively exchanges on the stand and on the ground in Round 1 before Pantoja pulls away and finds a submission in Round 2.
Selection: Pantoja
Magomed Ankalaev (7) vs. Anthony Smith (8)
I understand the whole “Anthony Smith will force Magomed Ankalaev to take out the dog” angle to this matchup and why that should favor Smith, but I think Ankalaev is up to the challenge.
Note that Ankalaev is a solid counter-attacker who uses smart movement to avoid fights. Even if Smith’s plan is to make this one sloppy, Ankalaev has the knack of keeping the action from turning into a slugfest. Look for his accuracy and counterwork to deter Smith’s early efforts to push the pace.
As the fight progresses, that’s where Smith’s big-game experience comes into play. You know he means it when he says there’s nothing about Ankalaev that intimidates him and he won’t be afraid to take risks to stop Ankalaev’s eight-fight winning streak. Smith is the most dangerous type of opponent for Ankalaev: highly skilled, highly motivated and with more to gain than to lose.
Ankalaev has yet to make a statement to become the clear No. 1 contender, and while I’m picking him to overcome adversity and win a decision against Smith, I doubt he’ll dominate in such a way that the matchmakers bump him up front. of the line
Selection: Ankalaev
preliminaries
Alex Morono defeated. Matthew Semelsberger
Drew Good defense. Rafael Alves
Don’Tale Mayes def. Hamdy Abdelwahab
Drakkar Klose def. Rafa Garcia
Michael Morales def. Adam Fugitt
Ji Yeon Kim defeated. Joselyne Edwards
Nicolae Negumereanu defeated. Ihor Pottery
Orion Cosce def. blood diamond