As the energy crisis deepens, the UK’s gas network is preparing for rationing for more than a month, alongside similar talks within the electricity network. An industry source said grid operator National Grid is preparing for shortfalls on an “accelerated time” to prepare for the colder months.
They warned that household energy consumers have become the focus of plans to offload the electricity grid, and that a public information campaign would be needed to ensure households were prepared.
Meanwhile, Whitehall has been drawing up scenarios to manage energy since May, when it was reported that ministers were warned that 6 million homes could face blackouts this winter due to Ukraine’s invasion of Russia
In this worst-case scenario, Norwegian gas imports could be more than halved amid increased competition from the EU for supplies. If Russia completely cuts gas to the EU, the blackouts – over the course of the week – could start in December and last for three months.
Under plans briefed to top politicians, ministers warned that electricity would have to be rationed from early 2023 during the morning and evening peak times of 7am to 10am and 4pm to 9pm .
Industrial users of gas, such as steel mills, would also be asked to shut down, and gas-fired power plants could be shut down.
Those proposals, dating back to May, got renewed attention this week amid reports that the UK could face multi-day blackouts in January if cold weather and gas shortages leave the nation without power. An industry source warns that the massive shutdown of nuclear power plants in France could also threaten energy imports via submarine cables.
On Tuesday, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi sought to calm public concern.
“Like we did with the pandemic, we looked at reasonable worst-case scenarios, which were extreme, which never materialized. Why? Because we have a contingency plan for every outcome,” he said.
“But working with the sector, having an energy strategy that Kwasi Kwarteng has developed and executed very, very competently, means I don’t think we’re going to be in that world, in that space.
“It is a responsible government that plans these things, this is a difficult time in our history, there is war on our continent.”
However, analysts have warned that a serious scenario is “highly likely”. A recent note from Rabobank said: “What is most likely is that millions will freeze this winter – or go into debt to avoid doing so – and the result will be deflationary demand for everything else, along with price increases for all kinds; and yet government help will only mean the second inflation and less the first.”
Radiant Energy Group’s Nelson says the outage is likely to have a profound effect on homes, especially if it lasts a long time.
He says people will learn to always keep electronic items fully charged and stock up on extra charger packs. They will start dressing faster in the morning to stay warm and may buy electric blankets if they cannot fully heat their homes.
“People will relearn a lot about the daily rhythms of life before they had central heating or cheap electricity,” adds Nelson.
“It’s a tough way to live and as a society Britain hasn’t had to do that for a long time. Tea will become one of the main sources of warm comfort because it doesn’t take as much energy to boil a some water for tea.
“Of course it is too late for this decade, but key decisions can be made now for a bright and warm 2030.”