On Wednesday, ministers pushed through a bill to break Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade agreements for Northern Ireland, a move none of the Conservative leadership candidates have challenged.
The bill has poisoned relations with the EU, raising fears of a trade war and the possibility of British scientists being excluded from a € 95 billion research program, but it is expected to survive the leadership competition.
Downing Street has said the proposed legislation, which would repeal parts of the protocol, is an “agreed policy” and will continue its passage through the Commons while outgoing Prime Minister Johnson leads an interim government.
The bill, which began its line-by-line scrutiny stage in the House of Commons on Wednesday, is expected to face stiff opposition when it hits the House of Lords.
None of the candidates for Conservative leadership, including former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Commerce Minister Penny Mordaunt and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, have pledged to rule it out. Any such move would be unpopular among some Conservative MPs and party members.
Sunak resisted the Northern Ireland Protocol bill while in the cabinet, warning that it could lead to retaliation by the EU. But the former chancellor on Monday assured members of the European Research Group, the club of pro-Brexit Conservative MPs, at a private meeting that would allow the bill to be passed without amendment, according to attendees.
An ally of Sunak said, “Rishi would let the bill pass, but there would be a different tone.” Sunak’s spokeswoman declined to comment.
An ERG senior source said they were reassured by Sunak’s comments, but said no senior member of the group was likely to support the former chancellor in the leadership contest.
“We are concerned about other things than Brexit,” the source said. “We have no commitment to reduce taxes at all. The vision he gave us was not a vision of hope, but it was frankly administrative.”
The ERG met on Wednesday to discuss the leadership contest, but the group, which is thought to have dozens of members, will not endorse any candidate, with support spread among right-wing rivals Truss, Attorney General Suella Braverman and former equality minister Kemi Badenoch.
The pyre near the Rathcoole estate in Antrim county © Paul McErlane / FT
A cabinet member predicted that even if the protocol bill reached the statutes, removing Johnson from Downing Street would make a negotiated settlement of the dispute more likely.
“At the moment there is no confidence, but a new leader would change everything,” said a cabinet minister, who said Brussels and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, would like to commit to a new leader, especially if it were Sunak. .
An EU diplomat said: “A new face always makes a difference. It offers an opportunity. One approach would be to broaden the discussion on Northern Ireland in a much broader attempt to restart the relationship.”
Officials speculated that potential areas of discussion as part of a big deal over Northern Ireland could include unlocking UK membership in the Horizon Europe science program and the prospect of a veterinary agreement to reduce border frictions .
Last month, Truss introduced the protocol bill, saying it would “fix” practical problems with the agreement Brussels refuses to resolve, but EU officials warn the legislation will worsen tensions.
Truss has argued that the protocol has created difficulties in supplying goods to Northern Ireland from Britain and undermines the 1998 Good Friday Agreement between nationalists and unionists that ended three decades of conflict.
The dispute over the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, which has paralyzed local politics in the region, was raised over the bonfires and parades organized annually by unionists and loyalists from 11 to 12 July in celebration of their British identity.
Richard Bell: “Protocol is a disaster. They’re treating us like we’re not British ‘© Paul McErlane / FT
A pyre, near the faithfully loyal Rathcoole estate in Antrim County, was covered with signs that said “Protocol must go” and “Commitment = run out” while a band played “Land of Hope and Glory.” .
“I’d love to see Liz Truss come in. It’s tough with protocol and what I call the EU dictatorship,” said Richard Bell, 79, a retired electrical engineer, watching a band in north Belfast.
“Protocol is a disaster. They are treating us as if we were not British, “he added as protesters commemorated Protestant King William of Orange’s victory over Catholic James II at the Battle of Boyne in 1690.
Victor Molyneaux: “I don’t think the Conservatives have anyone to trust” © Paul McErlane / FT
The Democratic Unionist Party has paralyzed local politics by boycotting the region’s power-sharing assembly and executive until the Irish Sea border goes.
James McCluskey, 33, who works in banking, feared that if “we give an inch, then an inch, then an inch … I will eventually show my passport to go to Scotland.” He supported the project proposal. of a “green lane” law for goods coming from Great Britain and staying in Northern Ireland.
But as they celebrated their British “Twelve,” many unionists expressed little interest in who would become their next prime minister. “I don’t think the Conservatives have anyone to trust,” said Victor Molyneaux, 63, a truck driver.