All this plays into an even more important battle for international opinion.
An offensive victory for Ukraine would be seen as a claim to the policy advocated by Britain, Poland and, for the time being, the Joe Biden administration in the United States.
In short, that Ukraine must win the war and the West must do everything possible to help it do so.
If this effort is maintained, Ukraine’s long-term victory is almost inevitable. Russia cannot surpass Western economies.
But there are many influential voices in Western capitals, especially Washington, Berlin and Paris, who still believe that Western support for Ukraine is useless.
Maybe Putin’s army is empty. Maybe it’s based on men and weapons made in the 1960s. And yes, maybe every meter of land has been paid dearly for.
But the Russians continue to advance and the Ukrainians continue to retreat.
With the exception of the Russian withdrawals from Kyiv in March and from Kharkiv in May, the battles of attrition have ended almost entirely in favor of Russia.
In Mariupol, Severodonetsk and now Lysychansk, the higher Russian numbers have prevailed. And shells are once again hitting the suburbs of Kharkiv.