“Today marks a crucial step on your path to the EU,” European Council President Charles Michel said on Twitter after talks in Brussels. The leaders also agreed to approve Moldova’s candidacy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he “sincerely praises” the European Council’s decision, calling it “a unique and historic moment in EU-Ukraine relations.”
The decision, taken at an EU Council summit, comes a week after European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen said it was the bloc’s executive body’s view that Ukraine deserved the status of candidate because “he has clearly demonstrated the country’s aspiration and determination to live up to European values and standards.”
However, it is likely that years will pass before Ukraine can join the EU. The process is long and requires the agreement of the 27 member states at almost all stages. This means that there are multiple opportunities for member states to use their veto as a bargaining chip.
Before Ukraine can start negotiations to join the bloc, it must first meet the Copenhagen criteria: an opaque trio of requirements that focus on whether or not a country has a functioning free market economy; whether its institutions are fit to uphold European values such as human rights and the EU’s interpretation of the rule of law; and whether it has an inclusive and functional democracy.
It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to meet these criteria while the country is at war, however, von der Leyen acknowledged that he had begun to move forward to get there long before the invasion.
Once these criteria are met and all member states have agreed to start talks on the 35 negotiating chapters, ranging from trade to law and civil society, Ukraine must make internal reforms to meet the standards required in each. of these areas. Again, all Member States must agree that these requirements have been met before closing each chapter.
Once this has happened, the European Parliament and the legislative agendas must approve the decision, and finally Ukraine will be an EU member state.
The average time it takes to join the EU is four years and 10 months, according to the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. However, some Eastern European member states have had to wait up to 10 years.
In addition to a long and complicated process, there are also political considerations that could frustrate Ukraine’s European dream.
Not all member states are happy that Ukraine is considering joining the bloc. Therefore, it is likely that at each stage one or more will be tempted to throw a key to the works to get a concession on something else that the EU is debating, such as the allocation of EU money.
France and Germany and Hungary have not supported at all. Only after a visit to the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, the leaders of France, Germany and Italy indicated that they would support the status of candidate of Ukraine. Hungary has also dragged its feet, for a variety of reasons, though mostly because it is Russia’s biggest ally in the EU.
Some European countries have also been criticized by Zelensky for not providing enough weapons, as Ukraine is in the middle of a desperate battle to defend the Luhansk region in the east of the country.
The reasons for his hesitation range from concerns about corruption to a shift of power from the bloc to the east if Ukraine is admitted. There are also concerns about how much of the EU budget could eat Ukraine.
While all member states have supported the candidacy, there are still multiple opportunities for leaders to get on their heels over the next few years.
Ukraine’s long journey to the EU has only just begun. His status as a candidate could represent a moral victory and send a strong message to Russia. But the reality is that now Ukraine has to make reforms, almost on its own, which at best would be difficult enough, let alone while under the invasion of a foreign army.