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Kyiv – Explosions that rocked a Russian military airfield in forcibly annexed Crimea signal the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south and a critical new phase in the war that could shape its final outcome, two Ukrainian officials told POLITICO.
The series of explosions on Tuesday sent huge fireballs and clouds of black smoke into the sky, scattering terrified Russian tourists who were seen in videos shared on social media scrambling for safety on a beach and fleeing by car across the bridge in Crimea to Russia.
Moscow downplayed the blasts, saying they were caused by ammunition that had accidentally detonated at the airfield, where satellite images showed several military planes had been parked.
Ukraine’s defense ministry coyly denied responsibility while warning about the dangers of smoking around explosives, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying “this Russian war against Ukraine and against all of free Europe started with Crimea and it must end with Crimea, with its liberation. … I know that we will return to Ukrainian Crimea.”
But two Ukrainian officials who spoke to POLITICO suggested more directly that Kyiv was behind the blasts. Although Ukrainian forces have been pushing in recent weeks to regain ground towards the southern city of Kherson, which fell to the Russians in the first days of the invasion, the two officials said the explosions in the airfield indicated that this counterattack was now beginning in earnest.
A successful strike against a military target far behind Russian lines, and particularly on the Crimean peninsula, a place of great importance to the Kremlin that has largely avoided the heavy fighting taking place on the Ukrainian mainland, it would be deeply embarrassing for President Vladimir Putin, who would. he probably sees it as a dramatic escalation and a blow to the morale of his troops.
“The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of carrying out attacks that caused the damage, since such attacks would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian downing of the [Russian flagship] Moskva had already disclosed this,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank that tracks the conflict.
Asked by POLITICO if the explosions could be seen as the start of Ukraine’s counterattack in the country’s south, a Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters on the record, said affirmatively
“You can tell this is it,” the official said.
A second Ukrainian official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, told POLITICO that August and September will be “very important” months from a military perspective, likely to shape the final result of the war.
The official warned that the intensity of fighting in August and September could “feel like February,” but declined to elaborate on that assessment, citing military secrecy.
The official said the explosions at the airfield were a message to Russia that “nowhere is safe”.
The official warned that the intensity of fighting in August and September could “feel like February,” but declined to elaborate on that assessment, citing military secrecy | Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images
“Let them know how it feels,” the official added, referring to the fear and uncertainty that has spread across Ukraine, where Russia has fired more than 3,000 missiles since February 24.
The Washington Post, citing a Ukrainian government official, reported that the attack was carried out by special forces.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said in an interview on Ukrainian state television on Wednesday that the Saki airfield in the city of Novofedorivka, as well as other military airfields in Crimea, were the home of Russian planes that carried out airstrikes in Ukraine, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency has reported.
“That’s why taking any airfield out of service is very good,” he said, without explicitly confirming that Ukraine is responsible.
The air force reported on its Facebook page that nine Russian planes had been destroyed.
The full extent of the damage caused by the explosions at the airfield in Crimea is still unclear. But any number of military jets destroyed would put a dent in Russia’s air force, which has been attacking targets in Ukraine.
Satellite images taken by Planet Lab four hours before the explosions and released by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Ukrainian investigative desk, Schemes, showed more than 20 military aircraft parked at the airfield.
A one-second video posted on social media that POLITICO could not independently verify appeared to show at least one completely destroyed Russian plane and a firefighter pouring out an area of the damaged airfield.
Tweeting another video that appeared to show the aftermath of the blast, Anton Gerayshenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, wrote: “It seems that there is no chance that a single plane will remain intact.”
“The impact of yesterday’s explosion is no less than the destruction of the Moskva cruiser,” he added, referring to the Russian cruiser that was the flagship of its Black Sea fleet until it was destroyed by two Ukrainian Neptune missiles in April. “Dozens of warplanes will no longer be able to drop bombs and missiles on us.”
Ukraine has been methodically preparing for its counteroffensive to the south in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions since May.
Ukraine has increasingly targeted critical infrastructure in and around Kherson, which Russia relies on to bolster and supply its military. Aiding the Ukrainians are Western weapons, notably the HIMARS, or high-mobility artillery rocket systems, which Kyiv’s forces have used to take out the important Antonivskyi Bridge, forcing Russian troops to transport supplies across of the wide Dnipro river.
Ukraine has increasingly targeted critical infrastructure in and around Kherson, which Russia relies on to bolster and supply its military | Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images
Ukraine has also trained new brigades and deployed them to the south, where they have slowly retaken dozens of small towns and villages.
The regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia were invaded and captured by Russian forces early in the invasion due in large part to internal security failures, local collaborators, and weak defenses. The regions have economic importance and strategic importance due to their location. Together with the southern Donetsk region, the three regions form a land bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea and cutting off Ukraine from vital access to the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s focus on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia stems largely from concern over the Kremlin’s plans to consolidate control of the regions and thus the land bridge connecting Russia to Crimea.
Russia has also distributed passports to Ukrainians in Kherson and introduced the ruble as currency.
The two Ukrainian officials, plus a third close to Zelenskyy with knowledge of the counteroffensive, told POLITICO they are confident Russia will use its handpicked local proxies and collaborators to hold illegal referendums in occupied Ukrainian territories on September 11th or around September 11th.
What is not clear, one of the officials said, is whether the referendums will be “Crimea-style” or “Donbas-style.”
The Russian-orchestrated vote in Crimea in April 2014 asked residents of the peninsula whether they wanted to join Russia, while votes in the Moscow-controlled areas of eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in May of that year year they tried to legitimize the “independence” of those. areas and “people’s republics”. Both referendums were condemned by the international community and have largely gone unrecognized, except by Russia and several separatist states.
Explaining the urgency for the military to strike back now, the official close to Zelenskyy said they believed the momentum was in Ukraine’s favor. Russian forces have not made much progress in the eastern Donbas region since the battles for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, from which Ukraine made tactical withdrawals in June and July, respectively. And Russian morale is low, the official said.
Also, recapturing the south, the official said, would allow Ukraine to negotiate from a stronger position if talks between Kyiv and Moscow resume.
In addition, the official added, Ukrainians trapped in Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are waiting to see if Kyiv can “free” them or if they will remain trapped under Kremlin control.
“The longer our people are trapped under Russian occupation, the more we risk losing them,” the official said.