The last Ukrainian troops resisting in a desperate battle for the city of Sievierodonetsk have been ordered to withdraw, after weeks of intense street fighting and aerial bombardment.
Key points:
- Once Sievierodonetsk falls, Lysychansk will be the only city left in the Luhansk region not under Russian control.
- However, some analysts say his capture is unlikely to be a turning point in the war.
- It is believed that both sides suffered heavy casualties in the battle for Sievierodonetsk
The governor of Luhansk province, Serhiy Haidai, told Ukrainian television that it was no longer practical to try to hold on to the city.
“Staying in shattered positions for many months just for the sake of staying there makes no sense, because every day the number of casualties in unfortified positions increases,” he said.
Russia has been throwing everything at Sievierodonetsk as part of its mission to take the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
A man rides a bicycle past a building damaged by Russian bombing in Bakhmut, Donetsk. (AP: Efrem Lukatsky)
To achieve this, Russian forces must control all the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Once Sievierodonetsk falls, Lysychansk will be the only city left in the Lugansk region that is not under Russian control.
However, even if both cities are taken by Russia, the battle for the Donbas will not end.
The Donetsk regional military administration claims that 45% of its province remains under the control of Ukrainian forces.
So, if Russia takes these two cities to Luhansk in the next few days or weeks, will it mark a significant victory?
A Ukrainian analyst says Moscow has lost more troops than Kyiv in Sievierodonetsk. (Reuters: Oleksandr Ratushniak)
The American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, says the loss of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk “will not represent a major turning point in the war.”
In a recent assessment, he said: “Ukrainian troops have managed for weeks to attract substantial amounts of Russian personnel, weapons and equipment to the area.
“[They will] they have probably degraded the general capabilities of Russian forces while preventing Russian forces from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance. “
Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to search, up and down arrows for volume. Clock time: 6 minutes 7 seconds 6 m Many Ukrainians decide to stay to help win the war.
“Limits” to the amount of territory that Russia can occupy
Professor Emeritus of War Studies at King’s College London Sir Lawrence Freedman told the ABC that Russia’s progress on the Donbas had been incremental.
Sir Lawrence Freedman says Russian troops are facing moral issues. (Provided by: Chatham House / File)
“This will obviously be proclaimed in Moscow as a kind of victory. But this is a glacial progress.
“They announced their approach to the Donbas on March 25. So we’ve been together for three months and they’ve taken up a small amount of territory.
“I think that’s the problem they have ahead of them. If that’s the cost of each piece of territory, there are limits on how much more they can take.”
Alexander Khara is a former Ukrainian diplomat and a member of the Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank.
From Kyiv, he told the ABC that the withdrawal from Sievierodonetsk was a strategic move that does not mean any kind of victory for Russia.
Alexander Khara says that Ukrainian commanders have decided to move to a more fortified position. (ABC News: Taras Shumeyko / File)
“I think it was a wise decision to withdraw at a time when there is a possibility of pulling our forces out of the danger zone,” Khara said.
“We carried out a tactical withdrawal and it gives us a more favorable position with secure supply lines to our forces and with more application from our partners.
“I think our military commanders decided it was time to retreat to a more fortified position, especially in Lysychansk, which is on the hills.”
Khara said Russia had lost many more troops in the battle for Sievierodonetsk than the Ukrainian side.
“If you’re talking about ratio, I think they are several times more than the losses of Ukraine,” he said.
“Sievierodonetsk was pretty well located and gave us a chance to bring down Russian forces.”
Professor Freedman said Ukraine had to make the “difficult decision” on how long it remained pending in Sievierodonetsk.
He said that despite the casualties they have suffered, there were advantages to retiring at the end of the battle.
“By holding the Russians, give them time to start carrying the most advanced Western armament that is now beginning to arrive in Ukraine and is beginning to have an impact on the battle.
“Secondly, it’s a lot of wear and tear. We know that the Ukrainians suffered big casualties, but so did the Russians.
“And it is the Russians who are running out of infantry, who are clearly facing moral problems with the troops there.
“Third, because the Russians had made it a priority, they diverted activity from other areas, such as Kharkiv and Kherson, in particular, where the Ukrainians have begun in a limited way to counterattacks.”
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