The runway temperature reached 50C at the Farnborough Air Show this week. Officials checked whether the tarmac was melting between the aerospace industry showing off its wares, with flights of passenger jets including the Boeing 777X and Airbus A350, a variety of military aircraft and crew members from presentation of Red Arrows.
Monday’s heat was another reminder, if needed, of the urgency to decarbonize aviation, which is responsible for about 3% of global emissions. The threat of the climate crisis has taken the shine off an industry that was once the height of glamour, and zero-emissions flight presents a far greater technical challenge than decarbonising most other parts of the economy .
Air passenger numbers are rising again after pandemic lockdowns, even on long-haul routes that are recovering more slowly, but aerospace executives are increasingly willing to emphasize their investments in technologies that offer flights without carbon, while governments are belatedly turning their attention to aviation emissions. .
Boris Johnson confused executives with a rambling opening speech – “an audition for his future career on the after-dinner circuit”, one industry insider wryly noted – but the UK government also used the show to promise that 2019 would be the peak year for aviation emissions.
The key measure, beyond the aspiration of zero-emission flights by 2030 in parts of the UK, was a mandate that 10% of all jet fuel used in the UK be so-called of “sustainable” aviation (SAF) by 2030. , twice the EU target. This will come about thanks to an ambition to have at least five commercial-scale SAF plants under construction in the UK by 2025.
Cockpit of a Boeing 777X at the Farnborough Air Show. Photograph: John Keeble/Getty Images
Environmental groups said the strategy lacked a focus on reducing air traffic, a dirty word at an industry event known for its flurry of orders for new planes that produce more than 800,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent of carbon throughout its life.
Alethea Warrington, campaigner at climate charity Possible, said: “Relying heavily on underdeveloped, extremely expensive or unworkable technologies, the strategy fails crucially by leaving out a policy to fairly reduce demand for flights, such as a frequent flyer fee.”
Asked about the change in policy that could accompany a change in prime minister, Warren East, the chief executive of Rolls-Royce, said he hoped the UK government would remain committed to reducing aviation emissions.
“The energy transition and the need for carbon-free energy transcends any change in government,” he said.
Some suppliers to Airbus and Boeing face less existential risk than engine manufacturers. Collins announced that he is developing high-voltage, high-power wiring that could be used in hybrid engines that combine electricity and fossil fuels. The US company’s facility in Solihull, West Midlands, has also produced a working electric motor prototype for the Airlander aircraft, which will be fully electric by 2030.
Henry Brooks, president of power and controls at Collins, said hybrid propulsion could save up to 30 percent of a passenger plane’s emissions. “The hybrid electric part is very real,” he said.
However, for net zero flight, the message from Farnborough was that the industry is pinning its hopes first on SAF and then on unproven hydrogen technologies.
SAF can be made from plants or smart chemistry. However, many analysts doubt that it will be able to live up to its name without using large amounts of arable land for raw material or large amounts of energy in chemical reactions.
Pratt & Whitney’s PW123 engine on display at the Farnborough Air Show. Photograph: Peter Cziborra/Reuters
East said he sees “several decades” of demand for SAF, after a first net-zero flight in 2023.
The second great hope of industry is hydrogen. Hydrogen is an attractive fuel because water, rather than carbon dioxide, is the only output when oxidized.
EasyJet and Rolls-Royce announced at the show that they would jointly invest in hydrogen gas turbine engines, while Airbus said this week it would study the effects of atmospheric vapor trails produced by the use of hydrogen Airbus has already announced work on hydrogen propulsion with CFM, an engine joint venture owned by General Electric and Safran, in stark contrast to Boeing whose hydrogen efforts have been limited to testing a storage tank.
“Hydrogen is being built as a bit of a panacea,” East said, but he expects it will be 15 to 25 years before a two-aisle wide-body jet can run exclusively on gas.
Even then, it could still rely on combustion rather than generating electrical power on board with fuel cells. A combustion scenario could give engine manufacturers cover to continue making profitable but polluting gas turbines (theoretically capable of burning kerosene or hydrogen) for longer.
Val Miftakhov, chief executive of hydrogen fuel cell aircraft startup ZeroAvia, said his goal is “true zero” flight using hydrogen produced from renewable energy, not net zero , which is based on the re-emission of carbon previously captured from the atmosphere.
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The company aims to certify a 19-seater aircraft in 2024 and a 90-seater in 2028. It is optimistic that “in 20 to 30 years we will have technology that covers all aircraft,” but adds the caveat that ” I can’t tell you how exactly”.
Battery-electric flight in passenger aircraft capable of carrying more than 100 people is further away. East said it would be “probably in my lifetime in a pretty small plane, but I’ll be very big.” A transatlantic flight on battery power is more likely to be seen only by their grandchildren, he added.
Meanwhile, the industry is hedging its bets on how to fly with zero emissions. But the bonus in orders for fossil fuel jets suggests that, for all the talk at Farnborough about emissions-reducing technologies, the aviation industry is counting on the jet fuel era to continue for decades.