On Sunday, more people left U.S. airports (2.46 million according to the Transportation Security Administration) than on any other day so far this year. The July 4 holiday is expected to be even busier, with Hopper, a travel booking app, predicting that about 13 million passengers will fly to, from and within the United States this weekend.
The question for many travelers is whether they can rely on airlines to get them where they want to go on time.
You couldn’t blame them for assuming the answer is no. On Friday, June 17, before the holiday Monday in June, nearly a third of the flights arrived late, according to FlightAware, a flight tracking company. Between last Saturday and Monday before the weekend of July 4, US airlines have already canceled nearly 2,500 flights. At a June 16 meeting, Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary, told airlines he would closely monitor its performance. The next day, his own flight from Washington to New York was canceled.
In a letter Tuesday, Sen. Bernie Sanders urged Mr. Buttigieg to start fining airlines for especially serious cancellations and delays. Among other proposals, he suggested that airlines should pay $ 55,000 per passenger for any canceled flights that were clear in advance that they could not staff.
Before postponing any upcoming trips, however, it’s worth taking a look at the cancellation and delay data for information on how trips have changed and haven’t changed this year.
Percentage of cancellations so far this year compared to a comparable period in 2019: 2.8 percent compared to 2.1 percent.
Lesson: The idea that air travel was much better before the pandemic may be overshadowed by the nostalgia of Before Times.
Social media is full of statements that air travel is the worst it has ever been. In fact, on some holiday weekends and stormy weeks it has been incredibly bad. As Mr. pointed out. Sanders in his letter, airlines have canceled flights four times more often on weekends of big travel than in 2019. But the reality is that the reliability of the airlines was quite terrible even before the pandemic.
U.S. airlines have operated between 21,000 and 25,000 flights a day in recent months. By 2022, an average of one in five flights a day arrived late, a total of more than 820,000 delayed flights according to FlightAware. More than 116,000 flights have been canceled. All of this means that tens of thousands of people are missing weddings, funerals and work events and are struggling to make up for the holidays. But in 2019 for a comparable period, it wasn’t much better. Back then, 17 percent, instead of 20 percent, also arrived late and the average delay time was 48 minutes instead of 49 minutes.
“I think the reason people notice it so much more is because it’s grouped together during these holiday periods,” said Kathleen Bangs, a former commercial pilot who is now a spokeswoman for FlightAware.
While holiday weekends have always been a bit of a gamble, the problems of crew personnel exacerbated by overly ambitious schedules mean there is now less fluidity in the system, said Bob Mann, an executive at the airline has long now run RW Mann & Company, an airline consulting company. The time it could have canceled a dozen flights at a few airports is now more likely to have a much more spectacular domino effect, canceling thousands of flights to dozens of airports. This has been especially true for low-cost airlines such as JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, which canceled 10.3% and 9% of flights in April, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
That same month, JetBlue announced it would cancel between eight and ten percent of flights for the rest of the summer.
“A figure like the 10 percent I’ve never seen before,” Mr. Mann on early cancellations for a maximum travel period.
If you want to integrate protection in case your flight is canceled, never book the last flight of the day, advised Shawn Pruchnicki, a former airline pilot and professor of air safety at Ohio State University.
Less reliable airports: Newark, LaGuardia and Orlando
Lesson: The main centers were always a nightmare, especially on busy weekends. Changes in travel patterns and air traffic control personnel problems have made them worse.
So far this year, two airports in the New York area, Newark Liberty International and LaGuardia, have had more cancellations in the United States, about 6% of total flights, according to FlightAware data. In terms of delays, Newark was also one of the two most aggravating airports of which to fly, and took people to their destination almost 30 percent of the time. Only Orlando International had a comparable percentage of delayed flights.
Overall, flying out of Florida has been tough. More than one in four flights to Fort Myers, Fort Lauderdale and Tampa airports have been delayed so far this year. According to FlightAware data, only flights from Dallas Love Field and Chicago Midway airports arrived late at comparable fares.
Neither region can completely blame its unreliability on coronavirus-related problems. But each has worsened for pandemic-related reasons, aviation experts say.
Airports in travel centers like New York City have long had more cancellations and delays than other airports, Dr. Pruchnicki said. This is partly because of the design. If airlines need to cut flights, they will use one from New York as a sacrificial lamb “because it gives them more options to divert passengers,” he said.
New York City has also long been vulnerable to delays because air traffic controllers have to choreograph the activity of numerous airports 50 miles apart. “It’s a flying spaghetti ball,” Mr. Mann, the former airline executive.
Lately, at least according to Scott Kirby, executive director of United Airlines, there aren’t enough air traffic controllers to handle the spaghetti.
“They do everything they can, but like many in the economy, they have little staff,” Kirby told Bloomberg last week. In an internal note, United set out its plans to temporarily reduce 50 flights from Newark on July 1 to “keep flights running on time.”
In Florida, at the heart of the problem, several analysts said, is the state’s great popularity as a vacation and relocation destination. Airlines have responded by increasing flights. But then, when there are storms, as is often the case in Florida, because air traffic control in the area has already been pushed to the limit, it’s harder for airlines to get back on track than before, ”said Kenneth Byrnes. the chairman of the Embry flight department. -Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida.
That said, avoiding the centers may not be the way to go, some analysts said, because if your flight is canceled, the centers offer more options to change the reservation.
The most delayed major airline in recent months: JetBlue
Lesson: Paying more for a ticket on an airline with a better punctuality history can be worth it for short trips.
Over the past three months, JetBlue, Allegiant Air and Frontier arrived an abysmal third of the time late, with average delays of nearly an hour, according to FlightAware data. The three low-cost airlines were also the most backward in 2021, according to the Annual Air Quality Rating Report, an analysis of Department of Transportation data released by Wichita State University in Wichita, Kan.
During the pandemic, JetBlue has often blamed staff for delays and cancellations. In a statement on Thursday, an airline spokeswoman said the airline had made the necessary schedule cuts and now has enough pilots and other crew to keep the flights running when they are supposed to. The airline blamed most of the recent delays on air traffic control problems on the “weather-prone congested northeast corridor.”
“We made the decision in April to reduce flights by more than 10 percent this summer so that we can more reliably operate our schedule with our current staff and other limitations of the national aviation system,” he said. say the spokeswoman in the statement. “With our reduced capacity, JetBlue had a sufficient number of pilots and flight crews to operate our schedule in June,” he added.
The Transportation Workers Union, which represents JetBlue’s flight attendants, has often clashed with the company over delays and cancellations. On Thursday, Gary Peterson, the union’s international vice president, said he thought explaining the poor performance of the flight as a mainly meteorological and air traffic control problem was false. “Typically, JetBlue seeks to blame everyone except its own leadership team for the airline’s mistakes not only in the passengers but also in the flight crew,” he said.
The lesson for the average traveler can be to pay close attention to which airline sells this ticket before you click to buy. Especially on short weekend trips, losing even an hour may not be worth saving $ 100. In recent months, no major carrier could be relied upon to arrive on time more than 90 percent of the time, which was uncommon even before the pandemic, but Delta, Hawaiian, Alaska and United approached. with more than 80 percent of flights. arrive on time, according to FlightAware and Bureau of Transportation data.
Ultimately, for those who want to be sure that their flight is not canceled or delayed, the best bet seems to be to skip air travel during busy weekends.
Delta seemed to offer that advice when, on Thursday, it said it would waive exchange rates and ticket price differentials for anyone who had a reservation to fly between July 1 and 4 and wanted to switch to another. date before July 8th.
As for this July 4 weekend, “My advice is to go buy hot dogs and stay home,” said Dean Headley, co-author of the Wichita State University airline ranking.