Two decades ago, George W Bush coined the term “axis of evil” to describe rogue states that threatened the welfare of the West. And, judging by this week’s Russian-Iranian summit, an equally deadly alliance is forming between two states determined to undermine Western values.
The White House claims that President Vladimir Putin has been forced to embrace the ayatollahs because he finds himself completely isolated on the world stage after the invasion of Ukraine. It is hard to say that the countries that have so far remained loyal to Moscow – North Korea, Eritrea, Belarus and Syria – maintain the principles of democratic government.
But while Putin’s courtship with Iran is certainly a consequence of Moscow’s diplomatic isolation, this week’s summit is far more important than that.
The closer relations between Russia and Iran must be seen in the context of the broader geopolitical realignment taking place in world affairs, one that directly confronts the liberal values of Western democracy against the tyrannical instincts of despotic autocrats.
As for the formation of a new “profane alliance,” deepening the link between Russia and Iran gives Mr. Putin the confidence to believe he can avoid the worst effects of Western sanctions and persist with his aggressive policy of restoring the Russian empire. to its former glory.
The new spirit of cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, which was reflected in Putin’s warm welcome from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is undoubtedly a change from the Iranian regime’s long-standing hostility to Russia.
I remember very well the visit to Tehran in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, where the hotel had three mats at the entrance representing the flags of the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union. The guests were invited to wipe their feet as a gesture of contempt.
Today, Iran considers itself locked in the same existential struggle for survival against the West as the Russians, insofar as the Iranian leadership is willing to put aside its usual contempt for non-Islamic regimes in its rush to welcome the ’embrace of Moscow.
Iran’s willingness to relate to the Russian infidel was evident in Khamenei’s comments after meeting with Putin. He declared: “If you had not taken the initiative, the other side would have provoked the war on its own initiative. If the road is open to NATO, it knows no bounds, and if it did not stop in Ukraine, some time later the same war would begin under the pretext of Crimea. “
Iran’s paranoid attitude is the same as that of Mr. Putin, and that is why the new pact between Russia and Iran could prove to be a powerful threat to the Western alliance.
After all, this was the week that a senior aide to Mr. Khamenei boasted that Iran already has the capacity to build an atomic bomb. It is a statement that completely undermines the Biden administration’s concern to reach a new nuclear deal with Tehran, one that limits Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Kamal Kharrazi, a former Iranian foreign minister, said Iran was technically capable of making a nuclear bomb, but had not yet decided whether to build one.
As a nation with the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, the possibility of Moscow helping Tehran fulfill its long-held nuclear ambitions is a truly alarming prospect.
Russia has already played a key role in thwarting the Biden administration’s attempts to reactivate the nuclear deal with Iran by lengthening the process, to the point that most diplomats involved in the talks in Vienna they now believe there is little chance of reaching a new agreement. .
Iran’s response has been to help Russia evade sanctions, using the complex financial structures it has put in place to challenge the West to allow Russia to export its oil to international markets through a “ghost army” of oil tankers, which turn off your GPS. systems at the time of going out to sea.
The knowledge he has of the active support of rogue regimes like Iran will no doubt encourage Mr Putin to believe that, despite the military setbacks he is suffering in Ukraine, he can still cause difficulties for his Western opponents.
Putin is unlikely, for example, to be so willing to cut off gas supplies to Europe, a threat he made immediately after returning from Tehran, unless he was sure he could make up for the revenue shortfall by using oil smuggling. of Iran. net.
It is a similar situation with the insistence of Mr. Putin to ask the world for a ransom for the crucial issue of grain exports to Ukraine.
Significant parts of the world are facing the possibility of starvation this winter unless Putin relents. But this is unlikely as long as he can count on the support of his new friends in Tehran.