TORONTO-
Seasonal or higher-than-normal temperatures in much of the country will give Canadians a chance to enjoy the summer, but forecasts from a leading national forecaster warn that the humidity could welcome a few stormy months.
Chris Scott, chief meteorologist at The Weather Network, says the heat, along with an active lightning current, will cause above-normal rainfall across the prairies to Ontario and Quebec.
While that “doesn’t mean it’s a wear and tear every day,” Scott says he expects “some pretty intense storms from time to time.”
Scott says western Canada is not preparing to face the same conditions that caused last year’s devastating heat wave and wildfires in British Columbia.
The westernmost province is expected to gradually emerge from a cool spring and near-normal temperatures from June, which it says will prolong snow thawing and slow the start of the wildfire season.
In the Rocky Mountains, the extremes of spring drought in Alberta and flooding in Manitoba will begin to equalize, he said, as rainfall in the Prades returns to more normal levels.
However, he noted that the threat of drought conditions persists in southern Alberta, which could be influenced by the “epic heat” that is expected to take over areas just south of the border.
“We will have to watch exactly where this large heat dome is installed,” he said.
“This sets the stage for storms … We may have big hail, strong winds on the prairies and we believe this summer has a good chance of having some more of these big storms than usual.”
In Ontario and Quebec, most of the region is likely to experience a “very hot, humid summer” that doesn’t quite touch on last year’s stifling June levels.
“We’re going to see a lot of heat, a lot of dry days,” he said, ahead of the start of summer weather on June 1st. The official start of the summer is June 21st.
“But when we have the rainfall settings, just be careful this summer because we believe these storms can really have a punch.”
Scott does not anticipate a doubling of the “extremely rare” strong wind and storm that swept Ontario and Quebec on May 21, but urges Canadians, especially campers, to be vigilant when it comes to fast-paced weather patterns.
Atlantic provinces can expect rainfall above normal and temperatures above normal. These factors suggest a very active hurricane season in the region, he said.
“We can’t say exactly what the storms are doing; seasonal forecasts are a sketch,” he said.
“But it’s a warning if you’re in Halifax or Yarmouth, anywhere in Atlantic Canada, and frankly back in Quebec and Ontario. Keep that in mind, especially in July and August with the trend of tropical storms and hurricanes. “
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the Yukon and Nunavut, while rainfall remains close to normal.
Around Hudson Bay, he said precipitation was expected above normal.
Scott noted that while extreme heat scenarios are on the rise and will continue in this direction, some of the recent phenomena surrounding extreme weather events, such as severe storms, are more difficult to predict.
“We are receiving more heat waves, absolutely 100 percent. We are also having less intense periods of cold,” he said.
“In the middle, you have this combination of heavier rains, but what about strong winds, hail and tornadoes? We really don’t know in this area. Maybe never because it’s a very complex part of the weather.”
This report from The Canadian Press was first published on May 31, 2022