The odds of Warriors vs. Mavericks
Warriors Odds +1.5 Mavericks Odds -1.5 Over / Under 215.5 Hour 9pm ET TV TNT Odds via BetMGM. Get updated NBA odds here.
The Warriors got a third straight win to start the Western Conference Finals, and are now about to return to the NBA Finals.
Can Luka Doncic help the Mavs return and take this series to five games, or will the Warriors complete the sweep?
Let’s break it down.
Curry’s Drives helping offend the warriors
The Warriors have dominated this series in large part because of their flexibility in attack and defense. One of his players, Otto Porter Jr. (foot) appears to be questionable for Game 4, so this may affect your rotations a bit.
The Warriors have a net score of +14.2 in this round and have an offensive score of 120.5 and a defensive score of 106.3, the best scores in the conference finals.
They have done so despite a turnover rate of 15.3%, which is even higher than their regular season mark of 15% (second worst in the NBA).
One of the great advances for the Warriors in this series has been Steph Curry’s ability to drive basketball. He’s generating great looks, and the defense just can’t stop him. He averages 28 points per game with 49.1% shots, including 4.66 3s per game.
The units are incredibly effective and Curry has 64.7% eFG% in attempts from less than 10 feet.
These units are a bit atypical for Curry, and he’s messing up Dallas’ defense. The Mavs are so concerned about keeping Curry out of the 3-point line that they give up high percentage looks on the edge.
His starting point is set at 27.5 for Tuesday’s game, and he has made it clear in the last two outings.
Part of the reason Curry has been able to get these units is due to a scheme, but the Mavericks are tired too. They have played almost the maximum number of postseason matches, as well as tough opponents, and have now lost three games in a row to this perpetual-moving offensive used by the Warriors.
The Warriors are constantly moving, cutting and passing to create a good attacking appearance, and the Mavericks are basically playing a six-man rotation. These minutes and miles are catching up, and if you’re not perfect at defending the Warriors, you have no chance.
Can Mavs shoot the ball better?
The Mavericks have their backs to the wall after falling three games in a row, and now they need to win four in a row to advance to the NBA Finals.
One of the main problems Dallas has had in this series is attacking the Golden State defense zone. He has hampered the Mavericks’ attack and Luka’s ability to break through the defense.
While Dallas is making an absurd 52% of its shots from the 3-point range during this series, it has only managed to make 33.3% of it, for Cleaning the Glass.
The Mavericks couldn’t get a clean look. Their shooting difficulties, along with their 42.1% rebounding percentage and 18.2% offensive rebounding percentage, do not allow them many second chance opportunities.
Dallas is at a clear disadvantage in size and, without additional opportunities, cannot compensate for its poor overall shooting. The Mavs are scoring just 101.3 points per game during this series.
Warriors-Mavericks selection
Historically, it has been profitable to lose teams 0-3 in the NBA Playoffs. These teams have 20-30-3 ATS and only 14-39 SU on this site since 2005.
The sample size is drastically reduced if you limit it only to the conference finals, but there, the teams are only 3-4 SU and only once the team has been favored (the 2013 Memphis Grizzlies lost to the San Antonio Spurs).
The Warriors have convincingly won every game, with margins of nine, nine and 25 points. Now, in this essential scenario, the Mavs are favored by 1 point.
When teams are in a critical situation, it usually means something went wrong. While the Warriors may lack a bit of motivation to close out this series on the road, they have a 5-2 straight lead with an average margin of six points as they look to complete a sweep from the 2015 playoffs.
The Warriors have adapted and evolved continuously throughout this series and the Mavericks have struggled to adapt. While a sweep may seem surprising, given the pedigree and past performances in this series, the Mavericks ’career seems to have been done.
Pick up the Warriors to complete the sweep while they wait for the Heat-Celtics winner with a significant break advantage.
Choose: Warriors Moneyline (-104)
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