Stay tuned for a second front in the Ukraine war. Vladimir Putin is pressuring Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to bring his troops into the fight.
Until now, the prospects for this were slim. The war is unpopular in Belarus, and top military commanders apparently doubt the wisdom of direct intervention (Belarus has been helping Russia with air bases and hospitals).
But if Russian forces stall in the east, watch for the Kremlin to take the war back to western Ukraine. The United States must remove this option now.
The beautiful cultural city of Lviv, near the Polish border, can become a prime target. When I was there last month, the streets were dotted with men in military uniforms. Some were foreign volunteers – I heard American, British and Australian accents. The atmosphere remains sober.
We tried to order a beer at an outdoor cafe, but it was after 6pm, and while the fighting may be concentrated in the east, in the west there is still a curfew, curfew restrictions alcohol and missile terrorism. Places like Lviv and Kyiv face four to five air raid sirens a day.
A Ukrainian man holds his country’s flag inside his war-torn home. Vincenzo Circosta/ZUMA24.com
The whole country needs more air defense. And fighter jets. This has been a constant refrain from our Ukrainian friends. In late June, a Russian missile hit a military base west of Lviv, near the border with Poland. Are we ignoring the wake-up calls?
Lviv prepares for war. Ukraine is mining its border with Belarus. The mayor of Lviv recently held an “operational” meeting with civilian and military leaders and is establishing a defense headquarters in each of the city’s districts. Counter-terrorist defense units are trained to be ready for duty 24 hours a day. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has stepped up its warnings in Minsk.
Putin may not be able to destroy Lviv, but he can attack it. And from Belarusian territory (and with the support of Lukashenko), Russia can open another front. In principle, several hundred Belarusian tanks are ready to start their engines approximately 160 miles away.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 23, 2022. Sputnik/Ramil Sitdikov/Kremlin/REUTERS
It may seem like a weak card to play in Moscow, but Putin’s calculations may be changing. At the recent NATO summit, President Joe Biden, along with more than 50 countries, pledged an aid package that could tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor.
So far, the force ratio in the war in eastern Ukraine has been about one Ukrainian artillery system for every 10 Russians. Biden has promised 500 additional systems to Ukraine. Putin must stop the flow of Western arms to prevent a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive.
What Russia needs going forward is a protracted conflict. We need deterrence.
A Ukrainian serviceman fires an NLAW anti-tank weapon during an exercise in eastern Ukraine on February 15, 2022. Vadim Ghirda/AP
The West must give Ukraine the air defense systems and fighter jets it needs. Slovakia has donated its own air defense system and promised fighter jets. Poland has also offered significant military aid. But the old Soviet-era MiGs are no match for Russian air power.
The Senate begins to pressure the Pentagon. In a July 19 letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley, a group of U.S. senators—Democrats and Republicans—called for fourth-generation U.S. fighter jets to form part of the administration’s latest military assistance package. It’s time and it’s getting late. Training takes time.
Consider the effect if Belarus enters the war. The flow of arms from western to eastern Ukraine could be disrupted. New refugees would pour into Poland.
The Polish border with Ukraine is only 46 miles from Lviv. When I was there a few weeks ago, it was impossible for me to cross the border in any way by car: the line of vehicles stretches for kilometers and the waiting time in both directions is 12-24 hours (I crossed). If Russia convinces Belarus to properly join the war, we’ll have border chaos again and Lviv will quickly find itself isolated.
Belorussian dictator Lukashenko may stay out of direct involvement in the war. He has a difficult balance to strike between staying in Moscow’s good graces and maintaining power at home.
A Ukrainian serviceman walks past war-torn buildings in Siversk, Donetsk on July 22. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
But it’s Putin we have to watch out for. If there is a tipping point in Ukraine’s favor in the east, a desperate Russia will try to bring the war back to the west. We must act now and bring Russia into line.
Iulia Sabina-Joja teaches at Georgetown and George Washington University, directs the Black Sea Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, and co-hosts the AEI podcast “Eastern Front.”