The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, visits the positions of Ukrainian troops located in the city of Bakhmut and the districts of Lysychansk, Ukraine, on June 5, 2022.
Presidency of Ukraine Brochure | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
LONDON – There are growing indications that Western unity for war in Ukraine could begin to break down as the conflict drags on and leaders face public discontent over rampant inflation and the cost of living crisis .
There are widespread concerns about how long the war could continue, and some strategists say it has all the hallmarks of a war of attrition where neither side “wins” and the losses and damage inflicted by both sides over an extended period of time. and prolonged, they are immense.
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Eastern Europe seem firm in their position that Russia should not be able to triumph or “win” over Ukraine by sculpting (or reclaiming, as Moscow sees it) expanses of territory. for itself, saying that this could have major geopolitical repercussions.
They have also made it clear that it is up to Ukraine to decide if and when it wants to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia. For its part, Kyiv has said it is willing to hold talks but has red lines, mainly that it is not willing to cede any territory to Russia.
However, it seems that there is a faction in Europe, that is, France, Italy and Germany, which hopes to reach a peace agreement sooner rather than later.
On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his officials would have to negotiate with Russia “at some point.”
Macron and his German and Italian counterparts (who are all in Kyiv on Thursday) have called for a ceasefire and a negotiated end to the war, and have urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold peace talks with Zelensky, to no avail. .
French President Emmanuel Macron arrives at the Kyiv train station on June 16, 2022, after traveling from Poland with the German Chancellor and the Italian Prime Minister.
Ludovic Marin | Afp | Getty Images
Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to demand more weapons from its Western allies, with NATO officials meeting in Brussels this week to discuss the urgent need for more weapons from Kyiv.
It comes as Russia gains ground in eastern Ukraine, largely as a result of its relentless artillery bombardment of the Donbas. Russian forces are making slow but steady progress in taking more parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions where two pro-Russian separatist “republics” are located, which Moscow says it intends to “liberate” from Ukraine.
The West continues to help Ukraine; U.S. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that his administration will send $ 1 billion more in arms to Kyiv, as well as $ 225 million more in humanitarian aid. For Kyiv, weapons can not arrive fast enough.
But questions are now being asked about how long their military assistance may last, especially if the conflict continues for years.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby asked CNN how much Biden was willing to spend in Ukraine, given the inflation crisis and the economic pressures facing the United States at home. Data released last Friday showed that the US consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981, with equally high levels in Europe ( the rate reached a 40-year high of 9% in the UK in April). ).
Saying that Ukraine was “a key priority” for the president, Kirby said the US “will do everything we can for as long as we can,” and reiterated that the last pledge of arms was only a small part of the 40,000. millions more dollars in aid approved by Congress.
“This is the first stretch announced in this $ 40 billion package. So we still have a long way to go here. How long can all this last? How long will the war last? No one can be sure.” said Kirby.
“We know and we predicted that the fight in the Donbas would be a draft, which would probably prolong this war for many months. And it seems that it is now bearing fruit.”
Western leaders under pressure
When the invasion of Russia began on February 24, the unified opposition of the West to the war and the strong response by imposing a series of harsh sanctions on it was surprising.
However, four months after the conflict, and Western leaders are increasingly under pressure from their constituents, as the consequences of the conflict are basically rising food and energy costs as a result of supply chain disruptions and sanctions in Russia severely affect consumers.
Summarizing the dilemma facing officials, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets, said: “‘What price are you willing to pay?’ Apparently, it has become the central issue of the summer, as Western leaders seek to balance their desire to support the Ukrainian resistance with their urgent imperative to tame inflation and prevent recession. “
There seems to be a geographic dimension to this division, Croft noted in his note Wednesday. “The leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe seem to be the strongest advocates of the principle that Ukrainians will determine what constitutes a just peace and have expressed firm commitments to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
However, he said, “officials in continental Europe and many developing nations, on the other hand, seem more inclined to call for a compromise that will give Putin a ‘golden bridge’ to withdraw.”
Croft said he had recently attended political meetings and forums where “there was an appreciable split” between officials calling for fuller military assistance to Ukraine and “those who suggest it is time for Ukraine to consider making concessions to the table.” of negotiations, citing the devastating impact of rising commodity prices. “
divided Europeans
A pan-European poll released on Wednesday also indicated that Europeans’ sense of unity in the face of the war in Ukraine could be waning.
A Russian military inspects an underground tunnel under the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol amid ongoing Russian military action in Ukraine on June 13, 2022. (Photo by Yuri KADOBNOV / AFP) (Photo by YURI KADOBNOV / AFP via Getty Images)
Yuri Kadobnov | AFP | Getty Images
The study by the European External Relations think tank found a growing level of public concern about the costs of economic sanctions and the threat of nuclear escalation in particular. It was based on surveys of more than 8,000 people between 28 April and 11 May in nine EU countries.
About 35% of respondents wanted the conflict to end, even if it meant that Ukraine would cede territory to Russia, while 22% said they were more interested in seeing Russia punished for its aggression, even if it meant prolonging the war. .
In addition, a growing number of people said they were concerned that their governments were prioritizing war over other issues, such as the cost of living crisis.
“Many in Europe want the war to end as soon as possible, even if it means territorial losses for Ukraine, and believe that the EU, instead of the US or China, will be ‘worse’ as a result of ‘this conflict “. said the report on the findings of the survey, co-authored by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev.
“Unless something changes drastically, Europeans will oppose a long and protracted war. Only in Poland, Germany, Sweden and Finland is there substantial public support to increase military spending.”