Why is everyone talking about China in the Pacific at once?
China’s ambitions for the Pacific first drew renewed attention in March, when news leaked of a draft security agreement that would give the Chinese army and police significant access to the Solomon Islands. The news shocked Australia and New Zealand, Solomon’s traditional security partners, as well as other Pacific nations and the United States. This week, as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarked on a 10-day visit to the Pacific with eight countries, news broke that Beijing was seeking a comprehensive economic security agreement with 10 countries that it would mean a dramatic expansion of its influence in 10 countries. the region.
Why do Australia, New Zealand and the US care?
The three countries have expressed concern that a greater Chinese security presence in the Pacific will destabilize the region, and the biggest fear of the Solomon Accord is that China may eventually establish a military base on the islands. only 2,000 km off the east coast of Australia. Beijing and Honiara have denied the plan.
Meanwhile, China’s interest in establishing a similar agreement with Kiribati has been worrying for its fishery resources and geostrategic location in the central Pacific. Kiribati and the Solomon Islands maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan until 2019, when they came to recognize China.
The news of Wang’s visit and the potential multilateral economic and security agreement will have sounded new alarms in Washington, Canberra and Wellington.
“If you consider the scope of China’s global interests and the relatively small size of the Pacific countries, this immediately tells you that Beijing has ambitious long-term plans in the region,” said Richard McGregor, a senior member of the Lowy Institute. of Australia.
What are they doing about it?
In her first days in office, Australia’s new Foreign Minister Penny Wong has made it clear that the Pacific will be one of Canberra’s priorities after years of friction between the Pacific and the previous US government. liberal-national coalition. Shortly after its inauguration, it recorded a video address to regional leaders in which it pledged to make climate a priority and Australia to be a “generous, respectful and reliable” partner. He began his own competitive visit to the Pacific on Thursday, with a meeting with Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama and a speech at the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva on the agenda.
The United States sent a high-level delegation to the Solomon Islands last month to express concern over the deal with China, with Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, Deputy Secretary of State for Asian Affairs. and the Pacific, which later refused to rule out military action if China established an army. based in the Solomon Islands.
New Zealand has taken a softer approach, with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern saying this week that “not for us to speak on behalf of other Pacific nations”, but that Wellington was “ready to respond” to security needs in the region.
What agreements has China signed in the Pacific and what is underway?
Solomon’s agreement marks Beijing’s first known bilateral security agreement in the Pacific. China is expected to sign more agreements with the Solomon Islands during Wang’s visit and will also seek to sign agreements with other Pacific nations during the tour.
Teburoro Tito, Kiribati’s ambassador to the United States and the UN, told the Guardian this week that China had agreed in principle to fund the renovation of a World War II runway on Canton Island. , but denied reports that a wider security deal was being prepared.
There are concerns that Kiribati may sign an agreement with China to grant special fishing rights to the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA), which was one of the largest marine protected areas in the world, until the government of Kiribati announced last year that it would open PIPA to commercial fishing.
Vanuatu has just signed a contract with China for the construction of a new runway extension at Pekoa Airport on Santo Island to allow access for larger aircraft, making it accessible to to the delivery of humanitarian aid.
So Australia, New Zealand and the US have dropped the ball?
The Pacific Islands have long accused Australia of not taking its climate concerns seriously, which it considers an existential threat. Canberra leaders have also been caught mocking the Pacific for their concerns. In 2015, then-Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his immigration minister, Peter Dutton, were caught joking about rising sea levels in the region. Following a 2019 meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum, several leaders accused then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison of contemptuous and insulting behavior, and Bainimarama told the Guardian that his condescending attitude was pushing the Pacific toward China. .
New Zealand has a more positive relationship and 60% of its foreign aid goes to the region. However, its influence has waned in recent years, with Dr. Anna Powles, a senior professor at the Center for Defense and Security Studies at Massey University, explaining it to “assumptions that Australia and New Zealand had not to make a considerable effort in the region “. to maintain its perceived primacy ”.
The U.S. has also been accused of being disinterested and focused on undermining China rather than responding to what Pacific leaders want.
What do the agreements mean for the Pacific?
There are fears that the agreements will not only mean a loss of sovereignty for island nations, but also make them the center of unwanted geostrategic competition. Some of the bloodiest battles of World War II took place in the Pacific. There are also fears in the Solomon Islands that the Chinese army or police may come to quell the protests.
In a letter to 21 Pacific leaders seen by Reuters, David Panuelo, president of the Federated States of Micronesia (WFTU), who will hold a virtual meeting with Wang, said his country would argue that the proposed multilateral agreement should be rejected. because he feared that a new “cold war” could break out between China and the West.