Strategists say Patrick Brown’s disqualification from the Conservative leadership career gives Pierre Poilievre an advantage, but Jean Charest may still have a chance.
The Conservative Party has ousted Brown from the race, citing allegations that he breached funding rules. Brown denies the allegations and his campaign says he is appealing the decision.
If the disqualification is maintained, Poilievre will have a clear chance against the Conservative leadership, Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke said.
“I think their odds of winning have gone from 98% to 100,” Rubicon Strategy partner Teneycke told host Vassy Kapelos at CBC’s Power & Politics.
SEE: Patrick Brown blames the dismissal on the Conservative establishment
Patrick Brown blames the dismissal on the Conservative establishment
Conservative leadership candidate Patrick Brown says he was fired by the party establishment. Political experts Eric Grenier and Kory Teneycke join Vassy Kapelos in reacting to his dismissal and predicting where the race will go from here.
Teneycke noted the Poilievre campaign’s claim that it has registered more than 300,000 of the 675,000 members the party says will have the right to vote.
The party says the preliminary list of members it published in the campaigns last week indicates that approximately 675,000 members are now eligible to vote for the next Conservative leader.
“That makes the race very strong [Poilievre’s] favor in terms of odds, ”Teneycke said.
Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers, director of Earnscliffe Strategies, said that while Brown’s disqualification offers Poilievre an easier path to victory, Charest could prevail if he wooed Brown’s supporters.
Brown has said he has recruited 150,000 new members to the party. Chambers said those votes could put Charest on top.
“Create a path for [Charest] to increase your camp, increase your members. And if he can get to the second or third ballot, he has a much better chance of winning, ”he said.
But Eric Grenier, author and editor of The Writ, said that scenario will likely depend on how many of Brown’s supporters still vote.
“Not all of these people will just go home and not vote because their candidate was disqualified. Many of them will still end up voting,” Grenier told Kapelos.
“Some of them will go to Jean Charest, but in all likelihood the 150,000 people Patrick Brown signed up for will vote in smaller numbers than people who are enrolled for other campaigns.”
If a significant number of Brown’s followers disconnect, that could give Poilievre another advantage, Grenier said.
Polievre and Charest claimed paths to victory
Both Poilievre and Charest claim they have paths to victory based on the preliminary list of members and that Brown’s disqualification does not change his calculations.
Party Leadership Election Organizing Committee [LEOC] did not break down the number of members by region or indicate how many members signed up for each campaign.
But the Poilievre and Charest campaigns say enough members have signed up in enough circles to win.
Conservative leadership race rules award 100 points to each of Canada’s 338 mountains. These points are distributed to candidates based on their share of votes in each constituency. A candidate must earn the most points to secure leadership.
Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre, right, passes Jean Charest as he takes his place on stage during a debate at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa on May 5, 2022. (Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press)
Poilievre and his campaign have said they have registered more than 300,000 members.
But in a message to supporters obtained by CBC, the Charest campaign says 450,000 party members are in less than 100 constituencies.
“After a detailed review of the preliminary list of members, we are confident that we have a very strong voting efficiency to ensure the points we need to win the leadership race,” the message says.
The Charest campaign also claims that the former prime minister of Quebec has secured 80 percent of the points in the 78 constituencies in his home province.
Poilievre’s campaign rejects the idea that his candidate’s support should be concentrated in a modest number of constituencies. The Conservative MP’s team says it has registered at least 100 members in each constituency in the country.
Poilievre’s campaign sent CBC a regional breakdown of its support: it claims it has more than 25,000 votes in Quebec, 118,000 in Ontario and 71,000 in Alberta.
These figures do not include those who may have been removed from the preliminary list by the organizing committee, but the party says only about 6,500 names have been removed from the list for not following the rules of the party or Elections Canada.
“If Mr. Charest is so confident, we ask him to release his numbers as we have done and show him his way to victory,” said Poilievre’s press secretary and campaign spokesman Anthony Koch in a text message.
Campaigns can use the preliminary list to buy votes
The fact that a campaign has registered a certain number of members does not guarantee that these members will still vote in the fall, and those who do can still vote for another candidate.
With the publication of the preliminary list, the party now allows all campaigns to call party members by phone or email in hopes of convincing them to change sides.
Ontario MP and leadership candidate Scott Aitchison’s campaign team said it plans to launch a tour this summer to gain fans.
“[Aitchison] “He will continue to work to build a Conservative Party that can deliver results and good government that Justin Trudeau is unable or unwilling to deliver,” a statement from his campaign said.
Former Ontario MP Roman Baber’s campaign said he is “optimistic” about the composition of members.
“There is no doubt that our message of democracy had a material effect on all campaigns and the race as a whole,” Baber’s campaign said in a statement to the media.
Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis’ campaign also says she has a path to victory, although she did not publish her own membership numbers.
“We absolutely believe there is a path to victory for Leslyn in this race, and we will continue to work to achieve that goal,” Steve Outhouse, Lewis ’campaign manager, said in a media statement.