No team is as good as it looks when it’s at its best, or as bad as it looks when it’s playing its worst. The month of July has been a bit of a rollercoaster for the Toronto Blue Jays. Remember, in this month alone, the Jays have lost nine of 10 games and won nine of 10 games. They have seen the best and the worst. So, the real Toronto Blue Jays, please stand up!
With the trade deadline just days away, general manager Ross Atkins is looking for ways to improve his club. Not just to make the playoffs, but to win once they make it. Nothing about his recent hot streak will deter him from making moves to improve his team. The losing streak is still fresh in his mind. He knows how quickly things can turn.
The needs of the team have not changed much during the month of July. In order of priority, the Jays need: another starting pitcher, bullpen depth and a big bat. Pitching needs are the most critical.
Ideally, you would trade for a front-of-the-rotation guy who could take the ball in a playoff series and win a big game. If they don’t get an ace, they need a second-tier starter who can predictably give them a chance to win every start. If they settle for a minor starter, they should focus on acquiring stronger tranquilizers. They could really use another lefty reliever who can get big outs in the eighth or ninth inning. They need a veteran reliever who can save the game at any point in the game. Sometimes games need to be saved in the 6th and 7th innings. This lefty would be a complement to Jordan Romano in high leverage situations.
Offensively, Toronto could use another big bat in the lineup. Realistically, this hitter would serve primarily as a designated hitter. Ideally, you would bat left-handed to better balance the lineup, which is somewhat right-handed dominant. Or, even better, he’d be a switch-hitter. But mostly, they just need him to be a good professional hitter.
Reading the commercial market
When CEOs make their calls this time of year, they’re juggling a number of parallel negotiations. GMs should have a plan A, a plan B, a plan C, and a plan D for every need they want to cover. So Atkins needs to identify who can be the best starter, reliever and hitter for this team. But the reality is that no team has the potential capital, financial flexibility or good fortune to land the best available players in multiple areas of need. In their talks with other clubs, the general managers are measuring the suitability of the players they are considering acquiring: the cost of the acquisition and the time when a deal can happen.
It’s a juggling act trying to stay involved in all the discussions while navigating to get the best result starting at 6:00 pm ET on August 2nd.
Atkins will have to weigh his ability to land Reds ace Luis Castillo or A’s starter Frankie Montas for the starting rotation. Knowing that if he gets one of them he will cost so much that he will likely have to settle for minor relief and offensive help. If he can’t get one of the aces, he’ll have to make sure he gets a stronger hitting and relief tandem. If he gets a minor starter and can’t land the relievers he’d prefer, then the quality of the hitter should be higher. There are a lot of moving parts that call for the CEO to be nimble and smart. There is an art to keeping all the deals alive and figuring out the best combination of players to acquire and at what price.
It is critical that the Jays make moves to address their needs. Have you ever sat in a car in traffic and experienced the feeling that you were rolling backwards, but it was just an illusion because the movement was actually the cars next to you rolling forward? This is what it feels like at the transfer deadline when your club’s teams in the league are making deals and improving and you are not. You seem to have gotten worse. CEOs recognize this sentiment and its impact. Players want to see the effort and commitment from their front office. As a general manager, he couldn’t throw or hit the ball. But at the trade deadline it was my time to compete.
I wanted to beat the deadline.
He knew there were other good teams and aggressive general managers out there, but he believed that a GM who made the right deals could manipulate the roster so that his club would make the playoffs and win. Look at the Atlanta Braves last season. Former Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos added four outfielders at the deadline (Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler) and soon after they passed the Mets, who had been in first place for more than 100 days. They rode the wave of momentum to a World Championship.
Is demand outstripping supply this year?
The expanded playoff format adds another interesting twist to the trade deadline. There are now six teams in each league that will make the playoffs; the three division winners and three wild cards. The top two division winners by record have a first round bye, while the third division winner plays the third wild card club and the first and second wild card teams play each other. The larger teams will host all games in a best-of-three series.
The law of supply and demand applies to baseball as it does to economics. The more teams in the playoff chase, the greater the demand for player acquisitions at the trade deadline. Sellers’ asking price will be slightly higher for talent this year due to the increased opportunity to play in October.
One example is the Yankees’ acquisition of Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi on Wednesday night. The Yankees need starting pitching and bullpen help and a left-handed hitting outfielder. There was speculation that they would be all-in with Nationals outfielder Juan Soto. Instead, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman made a preemptive strike to get Benintendi. Cashman realized their biggest need is pitching on offense (they’ve scored the most runs in baseball). So instead of putting all his eggs in Soto’s basket, he made a deal to get his Plan B option. He moved quickly before some of the bubble teams decided whether they were buyers or sellers.
Cashman read the scale of supply and demand in the market. He also had to prioritize his needs. By making the deal for the Plan B outfielder, he still has impact prospects to improve his pitching. There is now one less fielder in the market, so as the supply goes down, the price will go up for others to purchase a bat. In the meantime, Cashman can use his remaining trade chips on the pitching market.
Whichever team wins the World Series in 2022, trade deadline acquisitions will likely be a big reason why they were successful. I can’t wait to see which moves turn out to be the most impactful.