Less than a decade ago, ties seemed to be recovering as the two sides, separated by a strait less than 128 kilometers wide at their narrowest point, deepened economic, cultural and even commitments. and all politicians. But today, relations are at their lowest point in decades, fueling fears of a military escalation, even when experts warn that an impending total war is still unlikely.
In recent months, China’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only fueled speculation about Beijing’s intentions with Taiwan, and has raised questions about how the world might react if China launches an attack. .
While the White House quickly downplayed Biden’s comments, no other country is as deeply entangled in the dispute as the United States, which has a complicated history with both sides and has long since come a long way.
The authoritarian turn of China under leader Xi Jinping and the fall of relations with Washington have brought Taiwan closer to the orbit of the United States. This has infuriated Beijing, which has encouraged it to release more pressure on Taiwan and sent relations between the strait into a downward spiral.
That’s what you need to know about the island increasingly at the forefront of U.S.-China clashes.
First, a quick story
Taiwan, which has long been inhabited by indigenous peoples, became part of the Chinese Empire in the 17th century. It was later ceded to Japan in 1895 after Imperial China lost the First Sino-Japanese War.
The island remained a Japanese colony for half a century until the end of World War II. After the Allied defeat of Japan, the nationalist government of China, led by the Kuomintang (KMT), took control of Taiwan.
Shortly afterwards, the nationalists, who ruled the mainland under the banner of the Republic of China (ROC) after the fall of imperial China, were attacked by a new attack by an insurgent Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The two sides entered a bloody civil war that resulted in the eventual defeat of the nationalists who fled to Taiwan, moving the seat of government of the Republic of Korea from Nanjing to Taipei. On the other side of the strait, the CCP seized power and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing.
Both were proclaimed the only legitimate government in all of China.
In Taipei, nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek dreamed of one day reclaiming the mainland; In Beijing, CCP President Mao Zedong considered Taiwan to be the last piece of a united “new China”, a “problem” that had to be resolved sooner or later.
In recent years, Taiwan has downplayed its territorial claims over mainland China and today is a vibrant democracy, with its own army, currency, constitution and elected government.
But it is not recognized as an independent country by most governments in the world, and has become increasingly isolated diplomatically.
Over the years, a growing number of governments have shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, leaving Taiwan with only 15 diplomatic allies by the end of 2021.
What is the role of the US in all this?
During the Chinese Civil War, the United States supported the nationalists, while the Communists had the support of the Soviet Union.
The US continued to support the KMT government after its withdrawal from Taiwan, providing development assistance to help build its economy, while shunning the PRC as an ideological and military adversary.
But after a diplomatic conflict between Beijing and Moscow in the 1960s, known as the Sino-Soviet split, relations between the PRC and the United States began to thaw to counterbalance the Soviet Union.
In 1979, the United States joined a growing list of nations to formally change Taipei’s diplomatic recognition in Beijing.
In what is known as the “One China” policy, Washington recognizes the PRC as China’s only legitimate government; it also acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never accepted the CCP’s claim to sovereignty over the island.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to maintain close unofficial ties with Taiwan under the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, which has been in place for decades, facilitating trade, cultural, and other exchanges through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). de facto US embassy in Taipei.
Washington has also been supplying the island with defensive weapons, but has deliberately remained vague about whether to defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion, a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”
This aims to keep a lid on the confrontation by deterring China from keeping open the possibility of a US military response. At the same time, it aims to deprive Taiwan of US guarantees that could lead it to declare official independence. The goal is to preserve the status quo and prevent a war in Asia, and it has worked, allowing Washington to walk the tightrope of relations with both sides.
But under Biden, this “strategic ambiguity” has become a little less ambiguous. Since taking office, Biden has said on three occasions that the United States would be willing to intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack, although the White House has been quick to withdraw its statements each time.
But his latest warning against Beijing had an additional symbolic weight: it was made right at the door of China during his first trip to Asia as president, which aims to unite allies and partners to counter the growing influence of Beijing. China.
As expected, Beijing has reacted angrily to his statements, expressing “strong dissatisfaction and strong opposition” and accusing the US of “playing with fire”.
Why do tensions increase?
For decades since the founding of the PRC, animosity has reigned between Beijing and Taipei, with trade, travel and communication largely cut off. Military conflicts continued to grow, and the PRC bombed several peripheral islands controlled by the Republic of Korea on two separate occasions.
But tensions began to ease in the late 1980s, allowing for limited private visits, indirect trade, and investment across the strait. Ties peaked in 2015 during a landmark meeting between KMT and PCC leaders in Singapore.
But relations deteriorated rapidly after 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen of the traditionally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a presidential election in Taiwan, fueled by voter concern that Taiwan was getting too close to Beijing under KMT government. .
And under Xi, China has become increasingly assertive in foreign policy and has become more authoritarian at home. Their relentless crackdown on democracy and freedoms in Hong Kong has further alienated many Taiwanese, who fear that they could face the same fate if they were under Beijing’s rule.
Tensions are especially high as the Chinese military increases its pressure on the island, in response to what Beijing considers “provocations” by the Taiwanese and US administrations.
How likely is the conflict?
Following Beijing’s aggressive military displays in 2021, Taiwan’s defense minister warned that China could stage a “large-scale” invasion of Taiwan in 2025, sparking talks over a possible armed conflict.
Chinese military maneuvers and exercises are a reminder to Taiwan and the United States not to cross the red lines of Beijing, said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program of the German Marshall Fund in the United States. He said those red lines include the campaign for Taiwan’s formal independence or the decision to deploy a large number of U.S. troops on the island.
In an interview with CNN last year, President Tsai said Beijing’s threat was growing “every day.” But on the streets of Taipei, the mood seems to be mostly relaxed and confident. And analysts agree that despite the rhetoric and noise of the military saber, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan soon. U.S. intelligence officials have not yet seen anything suggesting that China is preparing for a military offensive, according to people familiar with the assessments.
On Monday, Biden also echoed that assessment.
“My expectation is that it will not happen,” he told reporters. “It will not be tried.”
Aiming for a peaceful solution to the stalemate across the Taiwan Strait makes sense: Experts have long said that any attempt by Beijing to take the island by force would be a hugely costly endeavor, with an uncertain outcome. .
In addition, the rapid and coordinated response of the United States and its allies to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has likely alarmed Beijing, experts say, suggesting that its leaders are watching the Western reaction in Ukraine in light of Taiwan. .
It remains to be seen what lessons Beijing will learn from the Ukraine crisis: it could be more cautious in its calculations in light of the Russian invasion and the strong Western response.
But on the other hand, Beijing could also conclude that “any attempt to take the island by force will only be more difficult as long as it is expected, as Taiwan can be put more seriously in its defense and the US and the US their allies can be more serious when it comes to preparing. ” with Taiwan for this fight, “wrote Bill Bishop, a Chinese political expert and author of the Sinocism newsletter.
CNN’s Stephen Collinson contributed to this story.