British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has survived a vote of confidence by dissatisfied lawmakers in his own Conservative Party, but his problems are far from over.
Johnson won the vote on Monday by a significantly smaller margin than he and his allies expected, suggesting that his party leadership, and by extension the country, has been shaken.
Here’s what it means and what’s next for him:
What happened on Monday?
The vote of confidence was sparked after at least 54 of Johnson’s own MPs – or 15 percent of Conservative lawmakers in the House of Commons – sent a confidential letter of censure to the 1922 committee chairman, a group of lawmakers. than not holding government office.
As a result, a secret ballot was held on Monday evening, with 211 Conservative MPs voting to keep Johnson as party leader, while 148 voted in favor of his removal.
Why do you face so much pressure?
Johnson’s presidency has been shaken by the so-called “Partygate” scandal, with months of allegations of parties and alcohol-fueled rallies at the heart of his government during pandemic blockade restrictions that eroded support for his leadership.
But the scandal is just one of the reasons for the rebellion.
Johnson has also been criticized for his response to a cost-of-living crisis, his inability to deliver on promises to boost the economy in the north of England by creating new transport links, as well as his attitude towards the Northern Ireland Protocol and the ongoing effects. of Brexit.
Was the result a surprise?
Yes and no. Johnson was expected to win the vote, especially considering that about 180 MPs are believed to be on the government’s payroll and therefore directly connected to the prime minister, including ministers, private parliamentary secretaries and vice presidents of the government. party.
But while Johnson and his allies tried to turn the result of the vote into a “convincing” and “decisive” number, the final tally of lawmakers who rebelled against him was much higher than expected. his supporters.
Before the vote, some analysts said that if the number of deputies voting against it exceeded 100, it would be in serious trouble.
Does that mean you’re safe?
Technically and for now, yes.
Under current Conservative Party rules, a leader who survives a vote of confidence is safe from another challenge for 12 months. These rules, however, can change at any time, as many pointed out on Monday and Tuesday.
What are the next big challenges?
The great rebellion of his legislators will tarnish Johnson’s reputation. It could also damage their ability to push through legislation.
“The number of rebels who voted to oust Johnson far exceeds the Conservative Party’s 75-seat majority in the House of Commons. If the rebels are determined, they could threaten to halt the government’s legislative agenda. it would further weaken the Conservatives’ position in the House of Representatives and increase pressure on Johnson, “Kallum Pickering, a senior economist at Berenberg Bank, wrote in a note to clients.
Conservatives are also facing two difficult by-elections in late June after two of their MPs were forced to resign amid their own scandals. Losses in these polls could increase pressure on Johnson ahead of the 2024 national general election.
What are Johnson’s options now?
Judging by his comments so far, the prime minister will try to keep clinging. In a statement Tuesday morning, Downing Street said Johnson would convene his cabinet on Tuesday and “pledge to continue delivering what matters to the British people.”
Johnson won Monday, but the fate of his predecessor Theresa May will still be fresh in his memory.
May also faced a vote of censure, again sparked by Conservative lawmakers. He survived that vote, by a larger margin than Johnson, but eventually resigned a few months later. If it turns out that Johnson’s situation has been irreparably damaged, he could opt for a voluntary departure instead of facing the humiliating death he suffered, which eventually led Johnson to become prime minister.
One nuclear option, which Johnson said Monday had no interest in, would be to call early elections. Johnson on Monday wanted to remind his lawmakers that he was the one who led the party to its biggest election victory in 40 years in 2019.
What options does the opposition have?
Labor Party leader Keir Starmer predicted on LBC radio that Monday’s vote would mark “the beginning of the end” of the prime minister’s political career, no matter which way he goes.
After the vote, Starmer said Johnson was “completely incapable of the high office” and accused Conservative lawmakers of ignoring the British public. “The Conservative government now believes that breaking the law is no impediment to making the law,” he added.
Johnson became the first UK Prime Minister in history to be found to have broken the law in office when he attended a meeting to celebrate his birthday in breach of Covid-19 restrictions.
Starmer MP Angela Rayner told the BBC on Tuesday that the opposition would “consider all options” when asked if the Labor Party was considering another vote of confidence in Johnson, this time across the board. Parliament.
Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon called Johnson a “completely lame duck” after the vote.
“This result is arguably the worst of all worlds for Conservatives. But more importantly, at a time of enormous challenges, the UK is saddled with a completely lame duck PM,” he said. Sturgeon in a tweet Monday night.