1) The rebels fall short. There is no vote of confidence. Johnson escapes through the skin of his teeth
As the country celebrates its 70th anniversary on the throne, Boris Johnson has been desperately calling on his MPs to try to make sure he can reach his three-year term as prime minister.
Conservative MPs who want him out earlier believe they are very close to the magic number of 54 letters (to 1922 committee chairman Sir Graham Brady) needed to provoke a vote of confidence.
But if Johnson survives next week without exceeding the threshold and then avoids a disastrous double loss in two by-elections on June 23, in Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield, he could survive without a vote of confidence. I would be sure, at least until the next crisis comes.
Probability On the balance sheet, but on the unlikely side, as the mood of the party is turning against it.
2) The rebels reach 54 letters this week, or after the June 23 by-elections. A vote of confidence is called. Johnson wins and keeps fighting
Most Conservative MPs believe it is now more likely than a vote of confidence. The big question is when does it happen. Voting could arrive this week. If he does, then Johnson has a good chance of winning (getting a majority of 359 Conservative MPs), in which case he can continue as prime minister.
If the vote is held after the June 23 by-elections, however, and the Conservatives are hit in both, lawmakers believe they would have a much tougher fight, as their new electoral toxicity would have been exposed. On the other hand, even in the midst of the despair of double defeat, scapologist Johnson could still secure a majority of Conservative MPs because his colleagues do not see the best leader on offer.
Another leadership challenge would not be allowed for a year. Johnson would be lame, though very weak.
Probability Most likely 1, but only only.
3) Johnson loses a vote of confidence and is out. Elections for party leadership begin
If Johnson submitted to a vote of confidence before or after June 23, and then fails to persuade the majority of the 359 Conservative MPs that he was the best person to lead the party in the next general election, he would come out. A leadership contest would begin during the summer to find a new Conservative leader and prime minister.
Probability It depends on how bad the results of the by-elections for the Conservatives are. If they are very bad, it is at least as likely as it is not.