LEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) – Between ice storms, flash floods and tornadoes in December, it’s been a wild year for weather across Kentucky.
Experts said a number of factors make the commonwealth more prone to certain things like this happening, and also leave eastern Kentucky especially vulnerable to flooding.
Some call this a 1,000-year flood, meaning there is a 1% chance of it happening in any given year. WKYT Chief Meteorologist Chris Bailey said it may be even rarer than that. He and others said it was so much rain that it probably would have flooded other places as well. But not like that.
As a state geologist, research professor and director of the Kentucky Geological Survey, Dr. William Haneberg has been trying to put the flooding in eastern Kentucky into perspective.
“We often talk about unprecedented things, but I think this was an event that really was,” Dr Haneberg said.
Water again showed its power over a place whose topography, experts say, already makes it more prone to flooding.
“You might hear people say, ‘Why do people build in floodplains?’ It’s because in areas like many parts of eastern Kentucky, there’s really no other option,” said Dr. Haneberg.
Its steep terrain and narrow valleys mean it often doesn’t take that much rain to cause flooding, but experts say elevation in the mountains can create more rain. In addition, Kentucky’s geographic location also places us on the map for more precipitation.
“We are one of the few states that can experience extreme weather every season. Our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, which is now open for business, and the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico have just fed a lot of additional moisture into Kentucky,” Bailey said.
With all of these factors in place, some officials in eastern Kentucky also worry that construction and development won’t help matters.
“You don’t have this vegetation to contain this water like you always did in the past. It’s a combination of things… We don’t usually see 10-12 inches of rain. We’re getting more precipitation along with the commercial development that we have, and we need to do a better job of understanding the long-term consequences of what we do along our watersheds,” Floyd County Judge Executive Robert Williams said.
Bailey said the 2010s were the wettest decade on record for all of Kentucky. A 2018 state flood risk assessment assumes that flood events will increase over time.
“We’re in an extreme time period not only nationally, here in Kentucky, but around the world, as our planet continues to warm, and it’s warming, we’re going to see more extreme events,” Bailey. said
The Kentucky Geological Survey also said it is possible that mining, particularly surface mining, could affect the severity of flooding in the region. They said right now it’s too early to tell if it had an effect on this event.
Experts believe the Commonwealth may be seeing worse disasters more often. Data from the state’s latest risk mitigation plan already shows that presidential disasters are being declared more frequently here. Based on trends, the report concludes, Kentucky can expect an average of one or two disaster declarations per year for the foreseeable future.
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