Why Russia does not hurt even if it cuts off gas in Europe

Moscow’s gas exports to countries outside its Commonwealth of Independent States, which includes 11 countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, fell nearly 28 percent in the first five months of 2022, it said on Wednesday. the Russian state energy giant Gazprom (GZPFY). To date, Gazprom has cut at least 20 billion cubic meters of its annual gas supply to customers in six European countries – Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands – because they were unable to make payments in rubles. the president. Vladimir Putin did in March.

This accounts for almost 13% of the EU’s total annual gas imports from Russia, according to the International Energy Agency.

But James Huckstepp, head of EMEA gas analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNN Business that gas prices have risen to an average of € 96 per megawatt hour ($ 102) in 2022 from last year.

As a result, “this is unlikely [Russia] it will see significantly less revenue until further cuts are made, “Huckstepp said.

Since Putin’s ultimatum, Gazprom has offered customers an alternative solution. Buyers could make payments in euros or dollars to an account in Russia’s Gazprombank, which would then convert the funds into rubles and transfer them to a second account from which payment would be made in Russia. Many large customers have accepted Gazprom in its offer in Russia. maintain gas flow. But others have resisted. On Tuesday, Shell (SHLX) Energy said it had “not accepted any new payment terms”, prompting Gazprom to close its flows to its German customers. GasTerra in the Netherlands said similarly in a statement on Monday that it would not comply with Gazprom’s “unilateral payment requirements”. The EU is making rapid progress in reducing its dependence on Moscow anyway, increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and compromised imports. reduce its consumption of Russian gas by 66% before the end of the year.

Countries are also struggling to fill their gas storage facilities before winter to avoid potentially disastrous supply shocks. The goal of the block is to keep at least 80% of the underground stores in the Member States in November.

Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, relies heavily on Russian gas to power its homes and heavy industry, but has managed to reduce Moscow’s share of its imports to 35% from 55% before the start. of the war in Ukraine.

Russia may not feel the impact yet. Although the EU is its largest buyer of gas, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration, rising oil and natural gas prices have boosted Moscow’s revenues.

EU fossil fuel imports from the country generated $ 47 billion in the two months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, twice the value of the same period in 2021, according to a report by the Energy and Air Research Center. Net. And some of the largest energy companies in Europe have begun the process of opening new accounts with Gazprombank to keep gas flowing, despite EU officials insisting that such a move would violate sanctions against Russia. . But as Europe moves further away from Russian gas in the coming months, Moscow will find it more difficult to find alternative buyers, as it has done for its oil, because its gas exports are delivered mainly through pipelines, which can take years to build.

– Robert North contributed to the report.

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