Last weekend, big news broke in Washington that the Nationals had a massive 15-year, $440 million contract offer turned down for young superstar outfielder Juan Soto.
There were also reports that Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, believed Washington’s offer was about $100 million short of fair value. It has become clear to Nationals ownership and management that they will not be able to sign their young slugger. So they made the contract offer public through the media and then made it clear they would likely trade the 23-year-old.
This was the second major Soto trade the Nationals have held with Boras. Washington previously offered $350 million over 13 years. The only difference is that Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said the team had no intention of trading Soto after the first round of negotiations failed. At the time, they thought they would probably make another offer and just wanted to regroup. They may even have believed they knew what it would take to finally reach an agreement.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the club is for sale, so the Nationals may have wanted to discuss whether the team would be more valuable with Soto signed to an extraordinary deal or whether to trade him for multiple prospects. ‘impact was better. way to go
The direction is now clear. The Nationals will not sign Soto and he will be traded, most likely before the Aug. 2 deadline.
Soto won’t be a free agent until after the 2024 season, so if the Nats don’t hear the offer they were hoping for at the trade deadline, they could opt out and wait until the offseason to trade him. Any team that acquires the right fielder now could have him for three playoff runs before he hits free agency. Its value will never be higher than it is now. It will take a significant package of talent to pull off the deal.
There will be more than a handful of teams interested. Since Soto won’t be a free agent for another two and a half years, any team that truly believes he’s worth the playoffs this year or next will likely make an offer. It doesn’t matter if they think they can sign him long term. Either way, he won’t sign before becoming a free agent. So if he can help a team make the playoffs, he’s worth acquiring now.
That includes the Toronto Blue Jays. My initial thought was that it didn’t make sense for Toronto, but I’ve changed my mind. Soto in the same batting order as George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez would create a fearsome lineup. Soto’s extraordinary patience and plate discipline would be very helpful for Guerrero, Bichette and Hernandez. His approach could rub off on the rest of the lineup, which is a perfect fit for a player of Soto’s age and experience.
My initial hesitation with the Jays stemmed from the reality that they probably couldn’t sign Soto and still sign Guerrero and Bichette and Hernandez long term. But what? Having Soto can give the Jays options on how to spend their money.
And even if Soto does go to free agency, the two-plus years he will have played in Toronto could be the incentive for him to want to re-sign there as a free agent. If the Jays realize they can’t sign Guerrero to a long-term deal, they could sign Soto and let Guerrero walk. Toronto likely can’t afford both, but it’s nice to have options.
The other thing to remember is that more than two years is a long time. If the Jays were to acquire Soto in the next 10 days, there’s nothing to say they couldn’t trade him in the future. Of course, the hope would be that three playoff runs would get him en route to three World Series championships. But if things don’t work out the way the Jays hope, they could always trade him at the deadline next year, or the year after that, or anytime in between.
So what are we really talking about?
Trade up to acquire him and let him run for three championships in a row or cut your losses at any time and get back some or all of the prospects it took to acquire him in the first place. The difference between the acquisition cost and what they could recoup later if they decide to trade him is well worth the chance to chase a World Series or two.
What would it take to get Soto dels Nacionals? I have seen so many different opinions. Some of the speculative trade deals I’ve seen from members of the media have been outrageous. Soto is very good, but this is not a Herschel Walker situation. Walker was a former Dallas Cowboy running back who was traded to the Minnesota Vikings in 1989 in a deal that eventually included 18 players and draft picks.
Last year at the trade deadline, the Nationals traded veteran ace pitcher Max Scherzer, who was a free agent at the end of the season, and All-Star infielder Trea Turner, who he had one more season of control, in the Dodgers for two blues. -chip prospects (starting pitcher Josiah Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz). Soto may cost more than two prospects, but not much more.
The Jays should probably include infielder Orelvis Martinez (currently at Double-A New Hampshire), plus catcher Gabriel Moreno and pitcher Nate Pearson (both currently at Triple-A Buffalo) and possibly Cavan Biggio. Yes, it’s a big package that would hurt some, but you don’t get a superstar for nothing.
After making the deal with Soto, he would trade a package built around outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has two years of control remaining after this season, to acquire pitching.
Gurriel can get the Jays a package that includes starting pitcher Martin Perez and reliever Joe Barlow or Brock Burke from the Texas Rangers. Or maybe he could help the Jays get starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard and relievers Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera from the Los Angeles Angels. Or lefty relievers Gregory Soto and Andrew Chafin and righty Michael Fulmer of the Detroit Tigers, who need offense. Or starting pitcher Pablo Lopez of the Miami Marlins.
This has a chance to be a remarkable trade deadline. Soto’s draw has everyone drooling because it makes such a difference. The Jays may be in the mix, but they’ll have to beat the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Giants and Mariners, among others, to get him.