Airlines had said they were prepared to avoid the service problems that plagued much of the industry last year. But between Friday and Monday, U.S. airlines canceled 2,653 flights, or nearly 3 percent of their collective schedules, according to FlightAware. That’s more than they had canceled for the same holiday weekend of the previous three years together.
In 2019, the year before the pandemic, the US airlines canceled only 1.2% of their scheduled flights, despite having 6,600 more flights on the calendar.
Experts said passengers are right to be nervous that they will see more of the same during the rest of the summer.
“This is not a good omen for the summer travel season, as we expect it to repeat itself during the summer months as more people fly,” said Helane Becker, an analyst at Cowen Airlines. a note to customers on Tuesday. “This was an opportunity for airlines to show that last summer’s delays would not be repeated this summer, and yet it was not.”
Airlines have far fewer employees, especially pilots, than before the pandemic. They received $ 54 billion in taxpayer assistance during the height of the health crisis to prevent unintentional layoffs, but most airlines offered purchases and early retirement packages to cut staff and save money while air traffic it almost stopped. But it takes years to get certified for pilots and some other airline employees.
Thus, airlines operate with little margin for error when they suffer from bad weather, air traffic control problems or employees calling for sick people, which is what they said happened this weekend.
“More than at any time in our history, the various factors that currently affect our operation: the climate and air traffic control, the staffing of vendors, the increase in Covid case rates that contribute to unscheduled absences are higher than expected in some working groups, are leading to an operation that does not live up to the standards that Delta has set for the industry in recent years, “said the director of experience of the Delta customer Allison Ausband in an online post.
But airline critics say management shouldn’t have been taken by surprise – they knew they didn’t have the margin of error they needed. After service problems throughout 2021, even during the year-end holidays, airlines should have anticipated these problems, said Captain Dennis Tajer, a spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association. American Airlines pilots union.
“When you do a stress test of the airline’s operating model, that’s when you see the same results,” Tajer said. With flights already booked until capacity, “a flight that is canceled not only causes a cascading effect, but causes a wave of problems. It’s a déjà vu again,” Tajer added.
With planes as crowded as ever, airlines may take longer to find passengers booked on canceled flights another seat to reach their destination, Tajer said. Call centers are also understaffed and overwhelmed by demand, especially when things go wrong as they did this weekend.
“You can wait more hours on the phone to book a flight again than the time it will take you to fly,” he said.
Staff shortages also lead to higher rates
The shortage of staff means that American airlines are not yet able to offer all the flights needed to meet demand. The capacity of US domestic flights in June, July and August this year is 5% below those months of 2019, according to Cirium, an aviation analysis company.
But passengers, especially holidaymakers, are looking forward to traveling again this summer. Numerous airlines reported a record number of customers booking flights earlier this summer.
“There’s a mismatch between supply and demand,” said Scott Keyes, founder of Scott’s Cheap Flight, a travel booking site. “Your hopes of getting cheap flights for the summer are slim.”
This combination of record demand and limited seating supply means much higher fares. The consumer price index, the government’s reading of inflation, shows that rates in April rose 33% from a year ago and 10.6% from April 2019.
The situation is likely to be worse for leisure travelers than these figures suggest because business and international travel has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Because these passengers pay higher fares than more price-sensitive domestic travelers, going on vacation is much more expensive than it used to be.
And it’s not just air fares that are more expensive.
The shortage of available vehicles meant that April rental car prices rose by 70% compared to April 2019. Hotels and other accommodation increased by 20% in April compared to a year ago. year and 10.6% compared to April 2019. All these price increases are likely. to accelerate even further during the busy summer travel months.
And of course, gasoline prices are at a record high, which could be pushing more travelers to fly instead of driving on some trips.
Experts believe that price pressures will begin to recede in the fall, but not before.
“The huge increase in demand, I think we’ll probably run out of it this summer,” said Hayley Berg, chief economist at Hopper, another travel booking site. “That and the normal drop in demand we see in September and October will probably mean lower rates.”
But he said it’s a good idea to book trips for the end-of-year holiday season if you already know your plans. It is likely that the same dynamics of strong demand and lower supply will be repeated.