The heat of early June has given way to a milder climate over the past few weeks, but as we approach the high point of summer, the possibility of a heat wave grows.
A high-pressure system known as “Bermuda High” is approaching the weekend, and The Express claims that weather experts have warned of temperatures as low as 41ºC on July 17th.
James Madden, an Exacta Weather forecaster, told the newspaper: “We are about to see a very warm period of time that could last between seven and ten days and cause a big heat wave in Britain.”
The Met Office has not yet made such drastic predictions. Here’s what you need to know.
Latest Met Office weather forecast
The Met Office’s long-term forecast for July 9-18 is as follows:
- Overall, good and dry for the southern and eastern parts of the UK to begin with, as the high pressure extends to the southwest, although some showers are still possible. The cloud rises further northwest, with more showers and rain bursts.
- Hot or very warm with light winds in the south, almost normal temperatures elsewhere and moderate or cool winds in the far north.
- It can be established more widely in the UK for a time after the period, although some areas in the north will likely continue to see periods of rain or showers at times.
- Temperatures well above average, especially in the south, with the possibility of very hot or sometimes hot periods for England and Wales.
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Forecast for the rest of this week:
- Today: a good start on Tuesday, but it becomes more cloudy in much of the region. Some bright or sunny periods continue in the afternoon, especially in the eastern areas. Light winds. Maximum temperature 22 ° C.
- Tonight: After a good night, it will be a clear night for many until the clouds penetrate from west to dawn, most parts staying dry. Minimum temperature 8 ° C.
- Wednesday: Cloudy start on Wednesday, although dry everywhere. The clouds will break during the morning and all parties will see some long periods of sunshine during the afternoon. Hot with light winds. High of 27 ° C.
- Perspective from Thursday to Saturday: fine and dry Thursday with sunny weather, but sometimes windy. Fine and dry Friday and Saturday with clear or sunny weather. Hot or very warm with light winds.
What is a heat wave?
The Met Office defines a heat wave at least three consecutive days of temperatures above a certain level. The threshold is different for each county, depending on where they are in the country.
In London temperatures must exceed 28ºC for three days in a row for a heat wave, while in East Riding of Yorkshire temperatures must remain above 26ºC.
Temperature thresholds in some parts of the country changed in March. Previously, Met Office thresholds were set using average temperature data for mid-July 1981 to 2010.
However, it now uses data from 1991-2020. Increased greenhouse gas emissions make higher temperatures more frequent than the last two decades. This means that the average temperature in mid-July has risen, said the Met Office, which brought about its changes.
“With rising average temperatures in the UK, we need to change the definition of what is‘ particularly hot ’, otherwise that definition makes no sense,” said Professor Hannah Cloke, a natural risk researcher at the UK. University of Reading.
Why do heat waves occur?
The Met Office explains: “Heat waves are most common in summer, when there is high pressure in an area. High-pressure systems move slowly and can persist in an area for an extended period of time, such as days or weeks.
“They can occur in the UK due to the location of the lightning current, which is normally found in the north of the UK in the summer. This can allow high pressure to develop in the UK, resulting in a dry climate and persistent settlement “.