According to YouGov, the Conservatives will lose their seat in a key battlefield constituency near Bristol. Tory Jack Lopresti has been the deputy for Filton and Bradley Stoke since the seat was created in 2010, but the research company says everything would change if a general election were held today (May 29).
YouGov released its latest MRP model on Saturday (May 28th) which found that if elections were held today, the Conservatives would only retain three of the 88 battlefield seats in England and Wales. Filton and Bradley Stoke is one of those seats, which is estimated to have a +7 job advantage in the next election.
The YouGov model predicts that of the 88 constituencies that Conservatives, either one in Labor in 2019, or currently have a less than 15-point majority over Labor, only three would remain in Conservative hands. They are Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Dudley North.
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West Country constituencies like Stroud, which has been in the hands of Conservative MP Siobhan Baillie since 2019, would also lose their Conservative seats, YouGov predicts. Elsewhere, the seat of Boris Johnson of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would likely fall into Labor hands, with current results suggesting a 5-point Labor leadership in the constituency.
YouGov data for Filton and Bradley Stoke (Image: YouGov)
YouGov says: “If we look at the ‘Blue Wall’ areas where Labor are the main challengers for the Conservatives, there is even more pain for the ruling party. Every seat in London and the South under the definition of the battlefield falls to Keir Starmer’s party: of Iain The Duncan-Smith constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, to Steve Baker’s seat in Wycombe, to the marginal camp of Southampton Itchen, Labor sweeps the board.
“All Conservative seats in Wales under our battlefield definition would be lost, including one for Plaid Cymru, which is currently being picked up by Ynys Mon. The other eight include the former Labor nuclei of Wrexham, Bridgend and Delyn.”
But YouGov admits: “However, there is a lot of uncertainty around these figures. The next election, of course, is not scheduled for another two years, and the limits on which it will be fought are currently expected to change.
“In addition, no less than 25 battlefield constituencies are currently expected to be won by a margin of less than five percentage points, well within what we consider a ‘margin of error’ for an exercise of this nature.” .
It comes after a YouGov poll found that Conservatives chased Labor by six points to Filton and Bradley Stoke in 2021. In the last election, Jack Lopresti won 48.9% of the vote, compared to 38, 4% of Labor candidate Mhairi Threlfall.
Last year, BristolLive found that some voters in the South Gloucestershire constituency had come out against Boris Johnson as a result of the Partygate scandal. Others said they are changing the way they vote because of Brexit and the government’s handling of the Covid-19.
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