Two years ago, UK meteorologists conducted an interesting experiment of reflection: what will our forecasts for 2050 be like? The climate crisis is making the weather in the extreme around the world, and temperatures in northern latitudes have been especially sensitive to these changes. .
Thus, meteorologists from the UK Meteorological Office, the UK’s official weather forecasting agency, delved into long-term climate models in the summer of 2020 to see what kind of temperatures they would forecast in the near future. about three decades.
Meteorologists say the unusually early heat wave is a sign of what will come as global warming continues, raising on the calendar the temperatures Europe would have seen before only in July and August. In the south of England, crowds filled Bournemouth Beach to enjoy the warm conditions. (Getty)
“It’s not a real weather forecast,” Met Office graphics said.
“Examples of plausible weather based on climate projections.”
Well, on Monday and Tuesday, the “plausible” comes true: 28 years before.
Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University in New York, noted the striking similarity between the outlook for 2050 and forecasts for early next week in the UK.
“Today, the forecast for Tuesday is surprisingly almost identical for large parts of the country,” Simon tweeted, adding in a later post that “what’s to come on Tuesday gives a vision of the future.”
In 30 years, this forecast will seem rather typical.
Temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal early next week in the UK. Highs could approach 40 degrees Celsius for the first time, a prediction that prompted meteorologists to issue a “red” heat warning for the first time.
To be clear, this would be a really record heat.
The hottest temperature in the country ever measured was 38.7 degrees Celsius at the Cambridge Botanical Garden in 2019.
It is also clearly a sign of how quickly the climate crisis is altering our weather.
“We were hoping not to get into this situation,” Nikos Christidis, a climate attribution scientist at the Met Office, said in a statement.
“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK. Chances of seeing 40ºC days in the UK could be up to 10 times more likely in today’s climate than in a natural climate unaffected by human influence. “.
The probability of exceeding 40 degrees “is increasing rapidly,” Christidis said.
The beaches of the UK are full while the government holds an emergency meeting for the heat
These are more than a few awkward days. Extreme heat is among the deadliest weather events; we just don’t usually see it happening at the time, when heat stroke and death are attributed to underlying conditions such as heart disease or respiratory disease.
And recent reports suggest no more than five per cent of UK homes have air conditioning to help keep residents cool.
Hundreds of people died in that heat wave.
British Columbia officials noted that more than 800 “excess deaths” occurred during the heat, unexpected deaths and far from the norm for that time of year.
Britain recorded the hottest day of the year so far, with the temperature reaching 32.4 ºC at Heathrow Airport, near London, on Friday 17 June. (Getty)
Unlike floods or wildfires that destroy a city, the sense of urgency surrounding a deadly heat wave is not as dramatic, said Kristie Ebi, a climate and health researcher at the University of Washington, stressing that the heat is a “silent killer.”
“When it’s hot outside, it’s just hot outside, and so it’s a relatively quiet killer,” Ebi previously told CNN.
“People are generally unaware and don’t think about the risks associated with these high temperatures.”
He also said it is important to understand that the weather is not as it was even a few years ago. The climate crisis is already affecting our lives today, and will continue to affect the most vulnerable.
“We all look forward to summer as we enjoy the warmer temperatures, but there are people who are at risk with higher temperatures,” he said.
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“As the weather continues to change or higher temperatures are higher than we experienced when we were younger, people need to pay more attention, especially to those around you.”