After the election victory, Anthony Albanese tried to present a new Australia to the world, taking climate change as seriously as defense, after decades of inaction.
“The new Australian government’s priorities are in line with the Quad agenda, taking action against climate change and building a stronger and more resilient Indo-Pacific,” Albanese said in words issued worldwide.
But experts say it will not be easy to turn around a coal-fired ship that has been going in the wrong direction for years, partly fueled by a government that earns billions of dollars in export revenue.
The powerful fossil fuel lobby could favor headwinds, as could those aligned with the former Liberal-National government, a center-right conservative coalition, although after years of dominating the Australian parliament, their voices are likely to be drowned by a cohort. of Greens and climate-motivated pro-independence activists who made big gains in the weekend vote.
Change seems to be approaching in Australia, but the new government must convince the nation that the climate crisis presents an opportunity, not a threat to jobs, said Frank Jotzo, director of the Center for Climate and Energy Policy. the National University of Australia. ANU).
“What the government should do is talk deeply about climate change as an opportunity to help create better economic opportunities for the younger generation,” Jotzo said. “A government that wants to change things must establish a narrative that is overwhelmingly strong against the inevitable lobby of powerful created interests.”
What Labor has promised and the challenges
For years, Australians had been sold the idea that moving away from fossil fuels would hurt the economy, but these elections suggest that the fear of economic ruin has been replaced by something else.
The message from climate-minded Labor, Greens and pro-independence activists was that too much time had been lost, although they did not agree on the size of the emissions cuts needed to get the country back on track.
Four days after the vote, although ballots are being counted, Labor were close to winning a 76-seat majority in the House of Representatives, meaning the party will not have to depend on alliances for pass legislation.
The Albanian government aims to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, but will no doubt be pressured to raise that target by the Greens and independents, whether or not Labor has a majority.
“Parliament now has a ‘super majority’ in support of climate action that cannot be ignored,” said Ben Oquist, executive director of The Australia Institute think tank.
However, while Australia plans to reduce larger emissions, more than 100 fossil fuel projects from the previous government are still being studied. If all goes well, they could add 10% to Australia’s benchmark emissions over the next decade, according to the Climate Analytics research institute.
While Labor’s climate goals are far more ambitious than those of the previous government, Albanese has not given the exact death knell to coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel. The future of natural gas, also a fossil fuel that is warming the planet and one of Australia’s largest exports, has not yet been figured out.
Bill Hare, founder of Climate Analytics and one of the country’s leading climate scientists, told CNN that it is not yet clear whether Labor will reduce fossil fuel subsidies, which could affect the viability of some projects.
“My impression is that these companies are still in a powerful position to take the pending projects forward, and there is a very strong gas lobby within the Labor Party,” Hare said.
Oquist said it is likely that pressure will also be put on the government in the other direction, by parties and the public who do not want new coal and gas projects to be developed.
“This debate against the opening of new coal mines and new gas fields will intensify,” Oquist said. “Raising new coal and gas will be on the nose politically.”
There is some debate as to whether government support for fossil fuels equates to subsidies. According to a 2020 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development think tank, the vast majority of the Australian government’s previous support for the fossil fuel industry was through “lost taxes”: reduced tax rates or exemptions.
Adam Bandt, the leader of the Green Party, which now has three seats in the Senate, is pushing for money to be redirected from fossil fuel companies to public spending.
“If the next government wants to know where the money is coming from to fund things like going to dentistry on Medicare (Australia’s universal healthcare plan) … stop giving aid to the big corporation of coal and gas, “he told reporters on Monday. “This is how we can make life better for Australians.”
Where will the emission cuts come from?
The goal of working to achieve zero net emissions by 2050 will also largely depend on a $ 20 billion investment in renewable energy, including solar banks and community batteries. But it cannot do so without reviewing the country’s infrastructure to modernize the power grid, distribution networks and switching stations.
“The question is whether it will be an investment or a direct budget expense; I’m not sure what your plan is, but we’re facing the toughest budget environment since the 1950s, so there will be challenges,” Hare said. dit. “Without this capital, the deployment of renewables will be slower.”
The Albanian government has promised discounts on electric vehicles, but the ability of Australians to charge them will again depend in part on the government’s plan to “convert the nation”.
According to research from the University of Melbourne, the country’s aging distribution network (poles and cables) is not sophisticated enough to cope with the extra power needed to charge electric cars at home.
Australia also has a lot to catch up on when it comes to purchasing electric cars. Just three years ago, in his re-election candidacy, former Prime Minister Scott Morrison claimed that electric vehicles would “ruin the weekend.”
They are still a relatively rare sight on Australian roads, although demand currently exceeds supply, according to the industry body Electric Vehicle Council. The group says Australia’s poor fuel efficiency standards create few incentives for carmakers to build the market, and the country ends up being “a dump for the world’s dirtiest vehicles”. the rest of the world, which also limits car owners’ access to the latest engine and exhaust technology to reduce road emissions.
Jotzo of ANU said that in addition to raising the rates of electric vehicles through discounts and other incentives, the government should tax heavily polluting cars and trucks. “This is a really big tax reform because it sets it up to gradually move away from excise duty on fuel as a major source of revenue,” he said.
What else to do
To date, most of the incursions Australia has made in reducing emissions have been driven by states and territories. In the absence of federal government leadership, they have introduced their own policies and goals.
Jotzo said the challenge for Albanese will be to bring together independent state-based strategies into a single united national plan.
“If you just let states do their thing, then you end up with state versus state competition and a truly horrible mosaic of different rules and regulations in different states, which is not really what you want,” he said.
Such a fundamental change in climate strategy after nine years of Conservative rule will take time to develop, but that could work in favor of Labor, Jotzo added.
“Some of the most important things will obviously be left to a future parliament,” Jotzo said. “Electorally this would be attractive to Labor; it would set them with an agenda for the next election.”
But if they do not understand the strategy, he warns, Labor will be the next party vulnerable to the challenges of the Greens and the pro-independence movement.
In the meantime, the government needs to focus on ensuring that Australians who depend on coal and gas for their lives are not left behind, Hare said.
“You can see that the mood has changed since 2019 in the coal regions, they want a plan,” he said. “They have found that coal is being phased out and they want to start looking at alternatives.”