Croakey’s introduction: The federal government announced today that it had accepted expert advice to expand the availability of a fourth dose of a vaccine against VOCID, amid widespread concern about the impact of winter and flu cases.
From May 30, a fourth dose will be recommended for people aged 16 to 64 who have a medical condition that increases the risk of serious COVID-19 disease and for people with disabilities with significant or complex health needs. .
At this time, healthy people aged 16 to 64 are not recommended not to have a risk factor for serious illness and to have received three doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
More details on the latest advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization here.
However, more needs to be done to stop the transmission and widespread impacts of VOCID, according to Professor Nancy Baxter of the University of Melbourne and Professor Nicholas Talley of the University of Newcastle.
In an article first published in The Conversation, they suggest reviewing the mandates of masks for indoor meetings and the insulation for home contacts of positive cases. “Pretending that the pandemic is in the rearview mirror will not help anyone,” they say.
Nancy Baxter and Nicholas Talley write:
In a survey conducted by The Guardian in August 2021 on the number of deaths that Australians would be willing to accept as restrictions were reduced, only three per cent of respondents estimated that 5,000 or more COVID-related deaths in year would be acceptable.
Unfortunately, only in the first four months of this year have we surpassed this milestone.
Every day, an average of 45,000 Australians report cases of VOCID, a figure that is rising and probably a substantial underestimation.
However, where are the reasonable public health measures to curb the tide of disease and death?
Read more: Reducing COVID transmission by 20% could save 2,000 Australian lives this year
People are dying of COVID
Unfortunately, we now lead the world in per capita COVID cases.
But did these people die with or with COVID? This question is often asked by those who want to reduce the impact of the pandemic, including former Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
The evidence, however, is clear: Of all the people who died “of” or “with” COVID during the pandemic in Australia, 90 per cent have died of COVID.
Even if we only care about excess mortality rates (i.e. deaths that exceed what would normally be expected), VOCID is a major killer. The Australian Bureau of Statistics assessed the deaths in January 2022, around the time of the peak of COVID cases during the first wave of Omicron in Australia. Comparing the observed mortality rate with the usual pre-VOCID rate, they found 22 percent more deaths this month than expected.
COVID is currently on track to become one of the leading causes of death in Australia this year.
Long COVID will affect many infected Australians, perhaps up to 30 per cent. And the other long-term effects of VOCID are not yet known.
The death toll and the long COVID are just one part of the story. The health care system is currently in crisis across the country with people dying waiting for ambulances, record levels of ambulance ramps (where patients wait with paramedics for medical attention), prolonged emergency stays for patients in overcrowded departments and shortage of hospital staff.
In addition, we are now facing our first flu season in two years, with weekly figures exceeding the average of the last five years.
Along with an below-average absorption of the flu vaccine this year, the flu season is shaping up to be potentially severe, which could result in up to 30,000 people requiring hospitalization.
With the arrival of winter and more people gathering indoors as the weather gets colder, COVID cases can also increase along with the flu.
We can reduce the cases
This impending disaster can be avoided: we can reduce transmission and “flatten the curve” with simple actions.
We have seen the impact that the relaxation of public health restrictions and protections has had as mandates to wear masks in terms of driving transmission.
Read more: Australia is failing marginalized people and COVID mortality rates
In Western Australia, public health measures such as the use of masks and the isolation of household contacts were relaxed on 29 April. Within days of these changes, the number of cases reached all-time highs: there are now 100 more people hospitalized with COVID each day than before these changes were introduced. effects.
It would be reasonable to reinstate these two measures would have the opposite effect: fewer cases, fewer people in hospital and fewer people dying from COVID.
The Australian Medical Association has called for an increase in voluntary use of masks, but their requests are being ignored. It seems that without mandates most people are not willing to wear masks, so the reinstatement of these mandates for indoor meetings should be considered.
Reinforcements and treatments are vital
We must also use the tools at our disposal to prevent serious illness in people who contract COVID.
While vaccinations have remained effective for serious illness, hospitalization, and death, our protection has diminished over time and has also been reduced due to increased Omicron immune evasion.
The impact of a booster dose is substantial, with high levels of protection against serious results demonstrated with a third dose. However, only 70 per cent of Australia’s population has received a boost and the numbers are not rising.
For those who have been strengthened, the fourth dose prevents serious illness in those most at risk, but so far, most eligible people have not yet received it.
If delivered early to people at higher risk for serious illness, antiviral drugs can reduce the risk of hospitalization. But to access these medicines, patients must have access to tests and a knowledgeable caregiver within five days of the onset of symptoms. The GP community is trying, but there will be an uneven distribution of these treatments without more education and support for coal-faced doctors.
A clearly articulated view of what is at stake and what actions we need to take to prevent disaster is the leadership we need right now.
A few simple public health measures, such as mask warrants and restoring isolation for positive home contacts, could make a big difference in saving lives. And ensuring the provision of reinforcements and early antiviral therapy for those at risk despite vaccination will also save lives.
Pretending that the pandemic is in the rearview mirror will not help anyone.
Nancy Baxter is a professor and director of the Melbourne School of Population & Global Health at the University of Melbourne. Disclosure Statement: You have been an unpaid participant in an MSD bulletin board by Molnupiravir.
Nicholas J. Talley is a Distinguished Professor at the University of Newcastle. Disclosure Statement: Receives funding from the NHMRC and the Department of Defense / Innovative Human Performance Research Call. He is affiliated with OzSage, the Australian Medical Council (AMC) (Board Member) and the NHMRC Main Committee (Research Committee).
See the extensive archive of Croakey articles on COVID-19