Conservative MPs warn that a double defeat in the by-elections this week will increase pressure on Boris Johnson’s leadership as the prime minister tries to get out of the Partygate scandal.
The rebels say Mr Johnson, who faced criticism when his ethics adviser resigned on Wednesday, would suffer a “loss of authority” if the Conservatives lost Tiverton and Honiton, which would require one of the majorities. largest ever canceled in a by-election.
Deputies from across the party told The Independent that they were privately expecting a “big defeat” on Thursday at the Yorkshire headquarters in Wakefield, a former Labor center that Sir Keir Starmer hopes to reclaim.
A senior Conservative MP, pointing to the “huge majority” in Devon’s seat, told The Independent: “Losing it for one would be a disaster. It will be the scale of defeat. [in Wakefield] that will be really revealing. ”
Another Conservative MP agreed and said: “The scale of the results is important. If we lose Wakefield by a lot and Tiverton by a few thousand people he will think, hell.”
Reflecting on Johnson, a Conservative who represented a red-walled constituency told The Independent: “Losing the two by-elections will increase the pressure. There will be a loss of authority.
“If we lose Wakefield, it’s a real blow to the teeth for MPs who have supported him and hope to keep the support on the red wall.”
While hopeful, Sir Ed Davey’s party warned that success at Tiverton and Honiton would represent “the largest majority ever annulled” in a by-election, defeating a previous record at Liverpool Wavertree in 1935. Other contests, however, they have seen larger fluctuations.
But the Conservatives are gloomy, with a senior MP saying Wakefield “has gone, has gone, has gone” and that most MPs were expecting a Lib Dem victory in the South West.
“Look at North Shropshire. It’s another chance for people to send a message to Downing Street that they’re not happy about,” they warned.
A Conservative MP predicted that if the recent vote of confidence in the Prime Minister had taken place after two by-elections, “it may have tipped the other way”.
But with voters heading to the polls just 15 days after he narrowly survived, the consensus among the parliamentary party looks set to continue at number 10 over the summer.
Under current rules, Johnson cannot face a challenge from MPs for another 11 months, which prompted a senior MP to suggest that the 1922 Conservative Committee be under pressure to change the rules as a result. any partial electoral defeat.
Many MPs told The Independent that Johnson’s most dangerous moment would come when the Privilege Committee released its report on whether it had deliberately misled Parliament about the Partygate scandal, scheduled for late autumn.
The Prime Minister outraged Westminster during the week with plans to abolish the post of Downing Street Ethics Adviser, after Christopher Geidt resigned in protest of being asked to endorse deliberate breach of the rules. by the Prime Minister.
Lord Geidt, the second adviser to resign in less than two years during the Johnson administration, said he was in an “impossible and odious” position when asked to advise on a plan to keep tariffs on the government. Chinese steel in a way that infringes the UK. obligations of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
A senior MP suggested that the 1922 Committee would not change its rules to allow another vote of censure this year, whatever the results of the by-elections. But they added: “I think it’s much more vulnerable if the privileges committee resolves that it has tricked the House into knowledge, in which case it has to go.”
A second MP said: “If the search for privileges is against him, this is a dangerous time. It will be difficult for him to lead a majority of MPs. There could be a delegation going to Sir Graham Brady. [to change the rules]. ”
A third added: “I think a lot of people who have reluctantly supported him last time would have trouble supporting him if the privileges committee was against him.”
Speaking to The Independent ahead of Thursday’s by-election, pollster Professor Sir John Curtice suggested that Wakefield was a “payback” for the Conservatives, who won the 2019 election seat with a majority of 3,358. A recent JL Partners poll found a 20-point lead for Labor in the constituency, with the Conservatives behind.
He said it was “very difficult to defend for any government, and it doesn’t matter if it’s a red wall, a blue wall, a pink wall or a purple wall, you just need a 3.5 percent swing.” He added: “It should be inconceivable that the government should stick to it.”
Sir John said the Tiverton and Honiton by-elections were “much harder to call” and highlighted the more than 20-point change the Lib Dems need to eliminate a majority of the Conservatives’ 24,239 from 2019.
“But of course that’s what happened in North Shropshire,” he added. “It will give you an idea of the extent of discontent in what is a fairly strong Conservative territory.”
A Lib Dem source said winning the seat on Thursday was “feasible”, but warned: “This is a vast majority of old people. British politics.
“We’re throwing it all away,” they added. “What happens loud and clear is a sense of neglect, very similar to Chesham and Amersham, very similar to North Shropshire.”