In December 2016, just six months after the Brexit referendum, there were by-elections in the constituency of Sleaford and North Hykeham, Lincolnshire, part of an area where 62% of voters had supported leaving the EU . The local Conservative MP had resigned over her differences with Theresa May and her government over their treatment of refugees, international aid and attempts to cut parliament out of the Brexit process, and set off a contest defined by the idea. that we had to face the EU. and escape from its prey as soon as possible. Conservatives campaigned with the slogan “Brexit means Brexit” and the promise of “a sovereign and fully independent country”, and won more than 50% of the vote, with Ukip in second place.
When I spent some time there, the interesting thing was not the rather silent battle between the parties, but a clear generational rift, which became clear as soon as I started talking to people. At one end of the spectrum, most people over the age of 60 were still concerned about the EU, as well as talking about a number of issues that revolved around it and worried that Westminster might somehow snatch up with the EU. Brexit. But anyone under the age of 30 answered questions about these things, either with opinions favorable to the rest, or shrugging their shoulders indifferently.
“I think the old people voted to get out,” said one woman, who fit perfectly into the first category.
“They want to see this country as it was,” her husband offered. “All the old values are gone, aren’t they? There doesn’t seem to be much pride in the country. “
As has long been the norm, these sentiments often blurred into rather poignant opinions about immigration and claims about dark forces trying to deny their fate in Britain. But when we spoke to students at a nearby college of higher education, the only political issues that seemed to matter were the near impossibility of getting a place to live and the lack of good local jobs: any talk on the subject. of nationality and membership became infinite. looks blank, almost as if speaking another language.
Six years later, despite the growing popularity of the government, Boris Johnson maintains this division. His attempts to pass his recent censorship vote focus on his government’s battle with the “lawyers of the liberal left” and the European Court of Human Rights for a truly mind-boggling asylum policy; and his reckless approach to the Northern Ireland protocol is based on the idea that if all else fails, the Brexit wars will have to be restarted. The mixture of nostalgia, belligerence and a zealous belief in “sovereignty” – whatever that means – that came to the fore in 2016 has never disappeared. The offer of conservatism to anyone who is not thrilled by these summaries, moreover, is once again a mystery.
What the government’s current contortions really betray is its anxiety about the long-term survival of the Brexit project. As they try to bolster an increasingly weak prime minister, Brexiters do not behave like people who won, but people full of fear and paranoia. On the day of Johnson’s censorship vote, Jacob Rees-Mogg warned, despite much evidence against it, that conservative opponents of the prime minister were “hostile to Brexit” and that the vote “would undermine the Brexit referendum”. Suella Braverman, the government’s internal trustee and attorney general, last week dismissed concerns about Northern Ireland as “continued implementation”. The right-wing press is full of talks about the remaining plots, including Keir Starmer’s alleged secret plan to return to Europe.
Somewhere in their souls, the smartest Brexiters presumably know two things. One is that there will be no material benefits from living outside the EU, and that its detrimental effects on the economy are now becoming apparent. The other one echoes what I found in Sleaford: the fact that the vote to leave the EU was the product of a unique political moment based on a demographic of a delicate age that has already changed, which confirms the feeling that harsh Brexitism is a doomed creed. It will fade as the future takes shape and the dire consequences of Brexit become unavoidable. But as the panic sets in, Tory’s strongest instinct is not to rethink. In contrast, the most doctrinaire and stupid conservatives see no choice but to bend.
History often works this way. Supporters sometimes rejoice in seemingly historic victories that are followed by defeat and retreat, which can still be applied to both the referendum and Johnson’s victory in 2019 (with nuances here of George Dangerfield’s famous critique of the 1906 Liberal Slip: “Since this victory they have never recovered”). The real supporters of a cause will be as passionate and motivated as the people at the top, and equally attached to their great ideas. “It will be founded, and in any case, most of us tend to get bored and quickly frustrated by the fans.” Johnson once showed signs of understanding this: it seemed to be the essence of his promise to to achieve Brexit. In this context, in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, the spectacle of him and his allies threatening to undo it and wallow in complete arcana is quite.
In Sleaford and elsewhere, I suspect that even many of the seemingly hardened Brexiters of 2016 will be left cold, but that’s only half the point. Remember: 73% of young people aged 18 to 24 who have voted remain. Among the 25-34 age group, the figure was 62%. Three years ago, when unconditional Conservatives raised the issue and flirted with a Brexit without an agreement, 68% of those over the age of 65 said they supported this line of action, but the 18-24 figure was a tiny 14%. Does this suggest some kind of firm foundation for a conservative future based on flag belligerence and endless struggles with Brussels?
Clearly not, and the same, a refreshing and hopeful argument can be applied to the present politician. If the Conservatives lose next week’s by-elections in Devon and West Yorkshire, we’ll probably hear a lot about Partygate and people’s doubts about the Prime Minister’s suitability for office. What we should also keep in mind is something that will become increasingly apparent: the fact that Johnson and his stubborn allies are beginning to look like generals fighting in the last war, without realizing how his is changing. country of origin, and the uselessness of its torn maps.