Ontario Conservative Progressive Party leader Doug Ford from left to right, New Ontario Democratic Party leader Andrea Horwath, Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner poses for photo before Ontario Party leaders debate in Toronto on May 16. Frank Gunn / The Canadian Press
Doug Ford is the best choice in Ontario’s pocket election, according to a new poll that also shows that the vast majority of respondents are uncomfortable with building homes on farmland and green spaces as a way to reduce housing costs.
The survey, conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail, was conducted amid provincial elections in which housing accessibility, pandemic recovery and infrastructure have become key issues.
Mr. Ford, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, came to the forefront when people were asked who was more reliable in managing the post-pandemic economy and making life more affordable. NPD leader Andrea Horwath was chosen as the most reliable one to arrange health care.
Liberal leader Steven Del Duca and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner did not lead any category.
But as election day approaches (the province goes to the polls on June 2), a substantial minority did not choose any of the leaders on every question about trust.
“There is not much enthusiasm for any of the parties and party leaders,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research.
“I would say that it is indicative of a growing anti-establishment sentiment in the population, where he believes that the establishment, elected political officials and our democratic institutions have fundamentally failed.”
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There is also substantial public skepticism about carbon taxes, a political tool that Mr. Ford is the only opposition leader. When asked if a carbon tax would encourage people to use less fuel, 56% did not believe it would be effective. This included majorities in the Greater Toronto Area and the rest of the province, both men and women.
However, what complicates the picture for Mr. Ford is that the kind of highway expansions that have become the centerpiece of the Tory campaign are a priority for the few. Only 28% said the construction of highways was more important than traffic, which had the support of 65% of respondents.
While Mr. Ford may point to his government’s actions to build highways and public transportation, he is the first to be most promoted in the campaign.
Conservative experts say highway plans are an effective wedge problem, especially in the suburbs of Toronto, and opponents of such projects will not vote for the party anyway, The Globe and Mail reported. The Globe agreed not to appoint officials so that they could discuss the internal strategy openly.
Another wrinkle for Mr. Ford’s government’s attempt to push municipalities to expand their boundaries, in the name of housing accessibility, seems out of place with public opinion. According to the Nanos survey, opposition to this building was strong among all age groups, both genders and almost equally present in the Greater Toronto Area and throughout the province.
This sentiment was most felt among people aged 55 and over, a demographic group that tends to vote.
“If you were only looking at this from a strictly politically mercenary perspective, you would say, ‘I don’t think anyone should talk about building new houses on farms and green spaces as a solution to reduce the cost of housing.'” say Mr. Nanos.
There is a growing recognition in some Ontario municipalities that this form of development is uneconomical and unsustainable. However, the other option is to increase the density and many cities, and their residents, are uncomfortable with this.
Along the way, only the Green Party is firm in forcing municipalities to reform their zoning, allowing for a “soft density” like triplexes in residential neighborhoods. Both the NPD and the Liberals are leaning in this direction, but say they would work on the issue with the municipalities, which have generally resisted any such change.
Nanos surveyed 504 Ontario residents using a hybrid hybrid, online and telephone survey on May 21-22. According to the survey, the margin of error was more or less 4.4 percentage points, 19 times 20.
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