Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Institute of Space Sciences
It may be difficult to understand now, but human exploration of the solar system will not stop at the Moon and Mars. Eventually, our descendants will spread throughout the solar system; for those interested in space exploration, the question is only when and not if. Answering this question is the focus of a new article published on arXiv by a group of researchers from the United States, China, and the Netherlands. His approach is highly theoretical, but is probably more accurate than previous estimates and gives a reasonable idea of when we might expect to see humans in the outer solar system. The last time they thought we could reach the Saturnian system was 2153.
Even how to start a calculation of this type is complicated, so it is best to start with the basics, which in this case involves a bit of calculation. To understand when humans will go farther into the solar system, the authors needed two variables: distance and time. In this case, distance is defined as the distance from Earth that humans have traveled, and time is defined as having begun at the beginning of the space race in 1957, when no human had yet left Earth. .
Another critical point in the data is when humans reached the moon in 1969. At a distance of 0.0026 AU, it was not far from the solar system, but it was a start. The next step in exploration is still speculative at this time, but the authors set two different scenarios for when humanity will reach Mars. Considering the launch windows, they estimate that the first humans will set a realistic footing on the Red Planet in 2038, which is when they are planning NASA’s Artemis program. But they also acknowledge that given the history of delays in the last-minute human space exploration program, it could go as far as 2048. Using this separate starting point, they develop a “backward” timeline of the rest of the steps. ‘exploration and, as it is exponential, has a correspondingly large impact on the dates of other milestones.
Credit: Univers Today
Arriving on Mars is certainly not the only factor affecting the exploration of the rest of the solar system. The authors use two other variables: the NASA budget and the level of space exploration technologies.
The use of NASA’s budget may seem relatively biased, as the agency represents only one country, even if that country has the largest space program in the world. However, it can act as an intermediary in the financing of space exploration more generally, although the private sector has been gaining more attention recently. Undoubtedly, there is a debate in the space community about whether the first person on Mars will even be from a government agency. Either way, using NASA’s budget as a variable in the equation unlocks a relatively simple linear relationship between time and a non-inflation-adjusted budget.
Technological advancement is more difficult to quantify, but the authors use a model of the number of articles published in a given year that mention deep space exploration as an indicator of the level of technology needed to complete these missions. The ratio they found for this metric of the number of papers over time is exponential, reaching a maximum of almost 2,000 articles per year recently.
Exponential graph of the Earth’s distances from human exploration. Credit: Rosen et al.
This combination of linear and exponential relationships results in an equation that can be solved by connecting the distance and time data points of the start of the space race, the first landing of the crew on the Moon, and the (still hypothetical) first landing of the crew. a Mart. From this model, the dates of the milestones begin to fall. Humanity could reach the asteroid belt in 2073, the system of Jupiter in 2103, and finally Saturn in 2132. As discussed above, there are some potentially significant differences based on the uncertainty of the planned landing on Mars. Still, the general trend is one of exponential exploration, as long as we keep up with our current level of technological and budgetary progress. That would be music for the ears of any space fan.
Canada will pursue crimes on the moon. More information: Philip E. Rosen et al, Impact of Economic Constraints on the Projected Timeframe for Human-Crewed Deep Space Exploration. arXiv: 2205.08061v1 [physics.pop-ph]arxiv.org/abs/2205.08061 Provided by Universe Today
Quote: Forget Mars, when will humans fly to Saturn? (2022, May 24) Retrieved May 24, 2022 from
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