But several Victorian Liberals, speaking to The Age on condition of anonymity, fear they have been harmed by Dutton’s appointment and are concerned that it further alienates voters who left the coalition in the federal election.
When Dutton established himself as the favorite to take the lead last week, Guy said he would not be afraid to appear on his side during the state election campaign.
“I will campaign with any federal liberal leader,” Guy said last week.
Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras, who worked on the 2018 state election campaign, said that while some voters will differentiate between state and federal issues, Dutton’s rise would be “very bad” for the Liberal brand in Victoria. .
“Victoria doesn’t like it,” he said.
Samaras, RedBridge Group’s director of strategy and campaigns, said research conducted during the Coalition’s term had identified Dutton as unpopular in richer Liberal seats such as Kew, Malvern, Brighton and Caulfield.
He said federal election data also indicated that Dutton could be a scam for the Liberal Party’s vote in state seats with the highest number of Chinese-heritage voters, including Ashwood, Bulleen, Glen Waverley and Oakleigh.
As defense minister, Dutton took a hawkish approach to China, accusing Beijing of being “on a very deliberate path” and warning Australia that “the only way to preserve peace is to prepare for war.” .
A 2018 Victorian Labor campaign ad featured Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton alongside state Liberal leader Matthew Guy after investigations proved unpopular in Victoria.
A Labor activist, speaking to The Age on condition of anonymity, agreed that Dutton’s rise would be a net positive for the Andrews government, especially given its unpopularity among Chinese voters, but said the Queensland Conservative would have “small pockets of support,” especially. in the northern suburbs of the north.
Samaras, whose Redbridge group will be commissioned by Trades Hall to conduct research to help shape its anti-Dutton campaign, said Labor had previously been successful in arming Dutton and other Coalition figures deemed unpopular. in Victoria, as Barnaby Joyce and George Christensen.
“We called them the ‘alignment of the deplorable,'” Samaras said. “In many ways, this damage to the brand contributed to the birth of the blue virgins.
“He made the Melburnians in some of those previously safe Liberal seats look at the party and say, ‘This is no longer the party I identify with.'”
Hilakari said Trades Hall would commission more surveys and research to identify Dutton and Guy’s weaknesses, which would be used to tailor the campaign.
But he hoped the campaign material would reflect what Labor used before the 2014 and 2018 state elections, which linked Canberra’s unpopular Liberal leaders to their state counterparts.
Workers and unions took advantage of Tony Abbott’s unpopularity before the 2014 state election, using that image in their election material. Credit: Angela Wylie
In 2014, advertising from workers and unions included photos of Tony Abbott, whose popularity had plummeted after his government’s first budget, smiling and wrapping his arm around then-Prime Minister Denis Napthine.
“This was an effective strategy that saw the fall of a first-term government,” Hilakari said.
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In 2018, workers and unions again tried to capitalize on the Liberal Party’s unpopularity in Canberra by running a campaign featuring Guy alongside Dutton and newly installed Prime Minister Scott Morrison, just weeks after the party left. leaving Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister.
A review of the loss of Liberal Party Victoria, conducted by party leader Tony Nutt, later found that Turnbull’s elimination was a factor that contributed to Guy’s defeat in 2018.
During this campaign, Labor also took advantage of Dutton’s inflammatory comments that Victorians were “afraid to go out to restaurants” because of the “violence of African gangs”.
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