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What is driving the day in London.
By ALEX WICKHAM
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Good Tuesday morning.
DRIVE THE DAY
NOW IN STREAMING: The drip became a drip, and at some point on Monday afternoon it became a steady stream, or even a stream, a cool, or a stream. This is the general consensus of Conservative MPs who are seeing more and more colleagues writing letters of censure under Boris Johnson’s leadership. With 48 more hours of dangerous free space ahead of the Platinum Jubilee bank holidays, Westminster is stunned at the prospect of the Prime Minister facing a vote on his future as soon as next week, or not , perhaps after the June by – election. The game of guessing numbers has quickly dominated the conversation on Twitter and WhatsApp groups SW1, although most current newspapers are splashed with the chaos of mid-term travel that is probably on the minds of many voters in these moments.
Boom time: Sky bean counter Tom Larkin says there are now 27 Conservative MPs calling for the Prime Minister to leave as soon as possible, that is, three Mondays and 12 since the Sue Gray’s report last week. There are 12 other Conservative MPs questioning Johnson’s position, four more on Monday. Remember that the letter threshold for triggering a vote of confidence is 54. From these figures it follows that yesterday’s move was significant and worrisome for the number 10, if it still does not prove that they are in mortal danger. Ominous for Downing Street, Dan Bloom of the Mirror notes that when Theresa May reached her own 48-letter threshold in 2018, 27 Conservative MPs had publicly stated that they did not trust her before that date.
Who freaked out? On Monday he saw former Attorney General Jeremy Wright exaggerate, citing “lasting damage” to the Tory Party by Partygate … young Elliot Colburn blamed reports that Downing Street staff were rude to cleaners. Brexiteer Andrew Bridgen filed the fourth censure. letter to a Conservative leader of his career, probably a party record (with John Stevens).
It’s not entirely official … but Johnson’s enemy, Tom Tugendhat, gave us a look and a wink, saying, “I’ve made my position clear to those who they need “. Johnson for asking for a vote of confidence in himself … and Dan Poulter, who said Johnson’s public statements about Partygate “lacked credibility.” Larkin’s spreadsheet has more quotes.
Yes / When: Esther Webber and Annabelle Dickson of POLITICO capture the mood among Conservative MPs in their piece this morning. “Things seem to be moving a little faster than I thought,” a former minister said. “I spent Saturday doing local events and I was shocked by the overwhelming view that it looks like the prime minister should resign.” Another MP who generally supports Johnson said about the prospect of a censure vote: “I feel this is a case of ‘when’ no ‘yes’ and only getting closer.” A third MP, a former cabinet minister who has not yet sent a letter, said he would do so when Parliament returns.
Is there a pattern? There has been talk that a steady pace of lyrics has been orchestrated by supporters of hopeful leadership Jeremy Hunt and May’s vengeful allies. Looking at the names of those who have been made public since Gray, it’s not hard to see why – it’s true that most of them are part of the group of conservative “docks” of One Nation or have other similar connections. However, it cannot be said to be just a faction plot or a leadership campaign. Bridgen’s decision shows that the number 10 now has a real battle to stop the flow of letters from multiple fronts and faces the plausible scenario in which the 54th threshold is affected “by accident” instead of an effort orchestrated over the next month. As Paul Goodman of Conservative Home told the Sun today: “The danger to the Prime Minister seems to be a drip, drip, drip, from ALL the wings of the party, rather than an organized coup by a faction.”
Battle of the Spreadsheets: Joe Armitage, the UK’s leading political analyst at Global Counsel, has his own spreadsheet which is a fascinating indicator of who might be next to send letters. He lists the 39 Conservative MPs most at risk of losing their seats to the Liberal Democrats in the next election, finding that nine have already sent letters of censure, and many more are hesitant publicly. By contrast, Armitage finds that the 60 Conservative MPs most at risk for Labor are generally much more loyal to Johnson. This essential analysis is compelling and suggests that Johnson’s main threat currently comes from Conservative MPs facing Lib Dem, although that could change soon if the Conservatives lose Wakefield on June 23rd. spreadsheets.
What will number 10 do about it? Johnson returned to the negative ratings and at the bottom of the ConHome Cabinet league table yesterday, and Harry Cole of the Sun has details of how the Prime Minister’s team plans to stop the rot. He reports that the Prime Minister will make a joint speech with Chancellor Rishi Sunak on the economy focusing on cutting regulation. “The focus of growth will be to break the EU’s Solvency II bureaucracy in the insurance market, to allow freed companies to invest up to £ 20 billion in infrastructure. While they are technical, ministers expect that can be a big “big bang” for investing in the city, ”Cole writes.
And there’s more: Playbook hears that the number 10 thinks winning over the “Waitrose Woman” is critical to his strategy of keeping Johnson afloat. This is the legendary middle class female voter who may not have been a Brexit fan or opted for the populist appeal of Johnson’s red wall, she definitely doesn’t kindly see Partygate and normally could vote Tory, but now she’s considering the Lib Dems.
Uncomfortable: The leader of Sunak’s local Conservative council in North Yorkshire, Carl Les, has called for Johnson to resign. “I’m very disappointed that the strong majority we had in North Yorkshire has been reduced to a working-class majority, but only, and much of the comments we were making at the door were about the impact of Partygate,” he was quoted as saying. said by Helen Pidd and Josh Halliday of the Guardian.
What if we get to 54? All the excitement of the cards and the flows has made some wise hands of the Lobby offer a note of caution. In his Sun analysis article to be read this morning, Harry Cole writes: “The magic number for Boris is 180 in a vote of confidence. That’s 50 percent plus one of his 359 Conservative MPs. A victory would put the issue of leadership in bed for a year, and probably until after the next election, and the Prime Minister is in a stronger position than he seems, mainly because he has distributed many jobs to parliamentarians. Cabinet members, minor ministers and transport members associated with the government’s TV cameras are overlooked and overlooked, many loyal players remain, meaning the odds of victory are in favor of the number 10 “.
One … one hundred and eighty! Pippa Crerar of The Mirror agrees that math is “still in her favor” when it comes to a vote of confidence, though she notes that “it’s surprising how many Conservative MPs don’t publicly support it, yet they haven’t fired him yet. ” And Kitty Donaldson of Bloomberg, who is well connected to the Conservative Party hierarchy, says, “I understand we’re not in a critical mass yet. Senior Conservatives seem relaxed because the numbers aren’t there.”
How will the number 10 play any votes? Ben Riley-Smith and Dominic Penna of the Telegraph say all Conservative MPs will be contacted by whips in a pressure campaign if the threshold is reached. Seb Payne of the FT quotes an ally of Johnson’s: “Boris’ argument is simple: he has never lost a national election … he won London twice, the EU referee and the 2019 elections. for someone who has no record of winning an election? “
When will we know? Probably not this week, as 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady is unlikely to want to interrupt the platinum jubilee. Next week could be very busy in British politics. Alternatively, the hype could be met again and we may have to wait until after the June by-elections to do it all over again.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
PARLIAMENT: Not sitting.
BACK TO THE REAL WORLD: Most newspapers today are splattering the farce at British airports, as airline bosses are criticized for cuts that cause long delays for holiday families for half a term. ministers run the risk of receiving more public outrage. . The Times is leading the government by blaming the airlines for the situation. The Mirror happily predicts a “summer of chaos” with queues at the airport for hours apparently to continue for months. The Express calls it “butchery.” The subway says that “families sleep on the floors of the airport and queue for up to eight hours.”
FUEL DUTY: The Mail calls on ministers to further reduce fuel taxes to “save us from the £ 100 fuel tank”. Veteran Labor Assistant Damian McBride responds: “Just to put this headline in historical context, the headline sprinkled on The Sun the day after Gordon Brown’s March 2000 budget was ‘£ 50 to fill a Mondeo.’ of course, that became the summer of fuel protests. ”
LAST WAR IN WHITEHALL: The rapid flow of the civil service will be canceled for a year by virtue of forced controversial plans despite the opposition of the Secretary of Leveling Up …