This week, only Nadhim Zahawi has climbed a political roller coaster to compete with the one he ousted Boris Johnson from Downing Street. On Monday, he was the UK’s secretary of education, his first post in the cabinet. On Tuesday he had already been promoted to chancellor. On Wednesday, he was planning tax cuts alongside the prime minister. And on Thursday, he had played a central role in ending Johnson’s prime minister.
Raising the 55-year-old man to the second most powerful role in British politics is the latest step in a rapid rise that his allies hope can make him the first non-white British prime minister. But some senior conservatives think his quick turn against Johnson will be counterproductive.
Zahawi was born in Baghdad in 1967 into a Kurdish family who fled to Britain when he was only 9 years old. The future education secretary did not speak English when he arrived, which made his teachers initially fear that he was suffering from learning difficulties. He studied in both public and private schools, before graduating with a degree in chemical engineering from University College London.
After graduating, Zahawi devoted himself to business, though sometimes with conflicting results. One of his first less successful companies was a marketing company that distributed merchandise for Teletubbies ’children’s television program. He was also an aide to Lord Jeffrey Archer, the former Conservative MP and novelist, even during the latter’s unsuccessful candidacy for mayor of London.
Zahawi began his political career as a local councilor in London’s thriving Wandsworth district. Any national ambition he harbored went into the background while concentrating on the company. In 2000, he founded YouGov, one of the first survey companies to focus on online research. But other functions, such as earning £ 1.3 million as a Gulf Keystone Petroleum consultant, have raised eyebrows. Zahawi was reportedly investigated by the National Crime Agency this week, but no crime has been found.
In 2010, Zahawi was selected for the safe conservative seat of Stratford-upon-Avon. Unlike many ambitious Conservatives elected when the party returned to power under David Cameron, his ministerial career did not take off. A No. 10 official who worked with him says, “Obviously he had a lot of talent, but he didn’t catch David’s attention.”
Support for Brexit in the 2016 referendum, however, ensured that its position within the party increased. A series of junior ministerial appointments followed. But it was Johnson’s sponsorship that put Zahawi in the spotlight as vaccine minister at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. He was praised by MPs for his quiet performances in the media amid widespread fears of scarcity.
He also won the favor of Whitehall officials. A Mandarin who worked with him during the pandemic says his big focus on data was welcome. “As secretary of state, he was constantly asking himself,‘ What is the proof? What is the evidence? during the deployment of the vaccine, “the official recalls.” Many other ministers do things simply by instinct. “
Since his elevation to the cabinet as secretary of education last September, Zahawi has been nominated as a candidate to succeed Johnson. Like rivals such as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, she has been scamming with MPs for months and preparing for the prime minister’s departure.
He has also been doing a fitness kick thinking about the leadership career. “It’s running, literally,” one MP smiles. At work dinners he has started eating half rations.
Zahawi’s campaign will be launched early next week, focusing on three elements, according to officials involved: his “phenomenal” story; its business interior; and his track record in government. “Many of his rivals have no business experience before politics, others do not have the same level of delivery or government experience,” says one MP who supports him.
But it is his role in the fall of Johnson that can determine whether he reaches number 10. When Sunak resigned as chancellor on Tuesday, Zahawi was one of the few credible candidates for the job. Some of his followers were disappointed when he accepted. “We always knew he was a nice guy, but he has poor political judgment,” says one friend. But others thought he had little choice. “These places need to be filled. . . he will have tried to keep the show on the road ”.
The day after arriving at the Treasury, Zahawi was part of a delegation of ministers who told the prime minister to leave. In an open letter, he wrote that he had a “broken heart” because his 30-year-old friend had ignored his advice. “Prime Minister, you know in your heart what needs to be done, and leave now.” Johnson accepted hours later. “It was Nadhim’s language that ultimately caused Boris to cross the line,” says an ally of his role in the regicide.
Although his profile at Westminster has risen significantly in recent days, Zahawi’s reputation beyond the world of politics is limited. Ladbrokes of the betting brokers placed their odds of being the next prime minister as 12/1, behind five other contenders, including Sunak and Truss. Its challenge is to convince parliamentarians that it can create a national follow-up.
But among conservative activists, who will eventually choose the next party leader and prime minister, Zahawi is highly regarded. He is the second most popular figure in the party with a net approval rating of +66, just behind Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace, his likely rival in the lead. Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, says, “He has a track record of success in business and a track record of success in government in delivering the vaccine program.”
Goodman notes that the impending leadership race is “a lottery,” but adds that if it “gets in front of members it could do well.” That this happens depends first and foremost on the votes of Conservative MPs, who are already well acquainted with its history and government history. They will decide if Zahawi is able to help the party rebuild itself after the turmoil of the Johnson era.
sebastian.payne@ft.com