People who arrived at a polling station in Vaughan, Ontario, on June 2. Political observers say one of the key reasons for the low turnout is that neither party made a convincing case in the minds of many voters. Fred Lum / The Globe and Mail
Ontario voter turnout set a new record low in this week’s provincial election, showing that political scientists are relying on the lack of a wedge problem along with pandemic fatigue.
Only 43 percent of eligible voters voted in Thursday’s provincial election, a significant decrease from 56.7 percent in 2018. This week’s turnout has fallen well below the previous all-time low of 48.2 percent. established in 2011.
“It is not a good sign for our democracy. I don’t think anyone has to say that our democracy is healthy, “said John Beebe, founder of the Democratic Engagement Exchange at the Metropolitan University of Toronto.
The historic low turnout contrasts sharply with typical Ontarian voting habits. For the past 100 years, more than half of eligible voters, and up to three-quarters, have voted in provincial elections, with the exception of 2011.
By staying home at unprecedented levels, Ontarians dealt significant blows to the vote totals of the Conservative Progressives and the NPD.
Prime Minister Doug Ford’s PC party was re-elected with 83 seats for just under 1.9 million Ontarians, about 430,000 fewer votes than the party it received in the 2018 election.
The new Democrats won 31 seats with nearly 1.1 million votes, about 830,000 fewer than in 2018.
The Liberals won only eight seats, with 1.1 million votes, about the same total as in the previous election.
Political observers say one of the key reasons for the low turnout is that neither party made a convincing case in the minds of many voters.
Mike Moffatt, an assistant professor at Ivey Business School, said the campaign was dominated by small ads that were unlikely to spark strong sentiment, apart from the PC Party’s controversial plan to build Highway 413 in the western area. of Greater Toronto Area.
“I look especially at what the Liberals were offering, you know, the message was basically: Ford is ruining Ontario, so vote for us and we’ll give you 25 cents off your roast chicken,” he said.
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Mr. Beebe said factors contributing to low turnout include a lack of a dominant divisive issue, opposition party leaders who did not inspire voter turnout and pandemic fatigue.
“There was certainly no wedge problem or galvanizing leader,” he said.
Nelson Wiseman, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, is optimistic about the low turnout, saying it could indicate a level of satisfaction.
Professor Wiseman said Ontario voters have often been less likely to vote at the provincial than federal levels, and are also less likely to vote than residents in many other provinces. He attributed this to a tendency among Ontarians to see themselves from a Canadian rather than a provincial lens.
“Here you are at the heart of national power,” he said.
Across Canada, voter turnout has also fallen in some other provinces that have held elections since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in early 2020. Fewer voters voted in Newfoundland, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick. Nova Scotia had a moderately higher turnout last summer.
However, Ontario’s low voter turnout is not the lowest recorded by a province in recent years. In Alberta, only 40.6% of eligible voters voted in 2008.
Some other jurisdictions have adopted electoral strategies to encourage citizen participation, such as incentives, punishments, or both.
Voting in the Australian state and federal elections gradually became mandatory throughout the 20th century, with modest fines for non-compliance. But the country is also looking to make voting an event, with barbecue stalls offering so-called “sausages of democracy.”
While first-tier electoral systems tend to produce stable governments, often rewarding the support of minorities with majorities in the legislature, critics say they make it difficult for supporters of small parties to have a voice.
During the Ontario election campaign, the NDP and the Greens promised proportional representation. The Liberals pledged to switch to a preferential voting system that takes into account the second and third options if no candidate wins an absolute majority.
However, such electoral reform is unlikely in Ontario. Mr Ford, whose party won 41 per cent of the vote and will hold two-thirds of the seats in the legislature, closed any suggestions for change on Friday, saying the system would “continue to work”.
With a report by Dustin Cook
ONTARIO GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2018 VS. 2022
Number of votes
candidate won by
Number of votes
candidate won by
Note: 2022 data is June 3 at 8:22 AM (ET).
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE BALLOON AND THE MAIL,
SOURCE: ONTARIO ELECTIONS; CANADIAN PRESS
ONTARIO GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2018 VS. 2022
Number of votes
candidate won by
Number of votes
candidate won by
Note: 2022 data is June 3 at 8:22 AM (ET).
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE BALLOON AND THE MAIL,
SOURCE: ONTARIO ELECTIONS; CANADIAN PRESS
ONTARIO GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2018 VS. 2022
Number of votes
candidate won by
Note: 2022 data is June 3 at 8:22 AM (ET).
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE BALLOON AND THE MAIL, SOURCE: ONTARIO ELECTIONS; CANADIAN PRESS
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