House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., on Thursday.
Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press
President Biden has a habit of stirring up trouble when he goes to the press, and this week’s entry in the canon concerns a controversial visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi. It didn’t make the trip easy for anyone, least of all the Speaker of the House.
Ms Pelosi has not confirmed whether she will go to Taiwan next month, but news of the trip leaked earlier this week and we know she has invited other members of Congress to travel with her. China reacted with its usual fury to the news, and a reporter asked Mr. Biden on Wednesday what he thought. He responded that “the military” believes that Ms. Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan “is not a good idea right now.” He didn’t elaborate, so the dire implications were left hanging.
Naturally, Ms. Pelosi was asked about Mr. Biden’s comments at her weekly presser. “I think what the president is saying,” he replied, “is that maybe the military was afraid that our plane was going to be shot down or something like that by the Chinese. I don’t know exactly. I didn’t see it. I didn’t hear it. You tell me, and I’ve heard it anecdotally, but I haven’t heard it from the president.”
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All this follows a warning on Tuesday from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian that Ms Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan would “have a serious negative impact” on US-China relations and that the China would “take forceful and decisive measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” .”
Perhaps sensing US weakness after Mr Biden’s comment, on Thursday Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin escalated: “Should the US side insist on the visit, China will act firmly to respond decisively and take countermeasures. We mean what we say.”
Mrs. Pelosi’s trip would have symbolic significance, as she would be the first House Speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years. It would send a useful message of solidarity with island democracy. And now that both she and Mr. Biden have raised the possibility of a military threat, any decision to stay home would look like a retreat under Chinese pressure.
China would notice that its bullying threats were successful, and so would US allies in Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and others in the Asia-Pacific region who worry about the permanence of the US. The comeback would be felt most strongly in Taiwan, where the question of US support in the event of an invasion is existential. If China can prevent a senior US official from visiting Taiwan, how determined will America be in a shooting war?
China is likely to interdict Ms. Pelosi’s plane, which would amount to an act of war with escalating risks. But public chatter about the possibility raises the possibility that his visit will turn into a matter of saving face in China. This raises the risk that China may take some other action against the US or Taiwan in response.
Mrs. Pelosi almost has to make the trip now, and hopefully it will be uneventful. But perhaps the White House staff is on to something when they limit Mr. Biden to a teleprompter.
Magazine Editorial Report: Best and Worst of the Week by Kim Strassel, Mary O’Grady and Dan Henninger. Images: NASA, ESA, CSA and STScI/Getty Images/Reuters Composition: Mark Kelly
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It appeared in the July 23, 2022 print edition.