With the low season approaching, the Athletic Raptors beat writer Eric Koreen and senior writer John Hollinger discussed the most important decisions the Raptors face this low season.
More Raptors out of season: first | commercial levels top-25 free agency big board | scene change trades | mail bag – first part, second part | draft goals at 33
Koreen: Hi, John. Thanks for taking the time. First, an unnecessarily aggressive rhetorical question: Did Precious Achiuwa make you eat your words about Kyle Lowry’s signing and trade deal last summer? Seriously, no need to answer. Raptors Internet fans keep their receipts.
Before we get to the issue of this low season, I wanted to get your general opinion on the 2021-22 Raptors season that ended about a month ago. What were your impressions of Project 6-8 and how has the way the playoffs unfolded altered your view of Masai Ujiri’s apparent strategy for building the Raptors roster?
Hollinger: Beautiful! Advanced statistics still question him, but last season he made a lot of progress and has obvious paths to improve. The deal looks better than last summer, no doubt.
As for the biggest issue of the Raptors season, it should be considered an alarming success on most levels. Fred VanVleet was part of the All-Star team, Scottie Barnes won the Rookie of the Year and Pascal Siakam was All-NBA. The Raptors won 48 games and took Philly to six in the first round. Entering the season, anyone would have caught it.
Project 6-8, as you say, seems to be where the league is headed, but the series against the Sixers also showed some of the limitations of this approach. Sometimes having a real center is really helpful.
The biggest question that remains is whether this iteration of the Raptors has any real equity in the championship and, if so, what should happen to push them there.
Koreen: With all due respect to the mid-level taxpayer exception draw (which I think might be more interesting than usual), I want to focus on the two most important decisions the Raptors have to make, which could produce together with his two best. players, at least for now. Both Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are eligible for the extension this offseason, although Siakam’s trading window does not begin until October.
Before I get into your specific situations, I wonder what you think of veteran extensions in general. Obviously, the longer a “bad” contract is, the worse it will be for a team, and the longer a “good” contract, the better for a team. Given the way agreements have gone for veterans recently, do you think you’re wrong to reach an agreement or, well, “keep it flexible?”
Hollinger: In the case of Toronto, I would probably choose to get a deal, especially with VanVleet, who can choose to go out and become a free agent in 2023. That’s because the Raptors are in what I call the ” bird rights trap “. where one player leaving the free agency cannot be easily replaced by another, because they have no room left to sign a comparable player. (Theoretically, Toronto could sign a big contract to replace VanVleet in 2023, but only if Gary Trent Jr. also walks in and the Raptors make no further pay additions now and then). Thus, withholding player rights is almost always the way to go.
With Siakam, the argument is a little darker due to his age, a higher initial contract and the fact that he has already signed until 2024.
Koreen: For the reason you just explained, VanVleet is the most interesting case for me. He’s the cultural touchstone of the franchise and Kyle Lowry’s natural heir, but he’s also shown signs of wear and tear as the seasons progress. Also, aside from the final nine games of the 2019 title, pretty big games, John! – His record in the playoffs has not been great.
You can opt for your player option for 2023-24 and sign a four-year extension, or opt-in and sign for three more years later. The first way would make you a little more money, but either way, you’re looking for a deal that starts around 20 percent of the limit. How do you see this from the perspective of the Raptors?
Hollinger: He is 28 years old and has just joined the All-Star team. Players like that are expensive. While the Raptors should be a little wary of shutting it down to their 30s, a rising limit should also remove some of the sting in recent years. In the big picture, if VanVleet becomes a free agent next summer, there’s a real chance that another thirsty team will offer him crazy money. Closing it with a totally reasonable salary of $ 25 million a year eliminates that possibility from the table. Toronto should be very willing to do that.
Koreen: Alternatively, if you’re VanVleet’s agent, what do you advise? And to what extent do the large number of teams that could have more than $ 25 million in a maximum space in 2023-24, at least from now on, influence things? We all know that VanVleet likes to bet on himself.
Hollinger: Oh, that’s why I think this will probably last longer. Remember, VanVleet can always make an 11-hour extension before free agency next year if you opt for your contract in June and create an extension of that number. So from his point of view, the only reason to accept a deal now is the security of landing the bag. As you can see, this bag could be much bigger next summer, even if it doesn’t have a particularly good year, just because of the supply and demand situation in the free agent market within a year. .
Koreen: Our friend Danny Leroux just wrote about the extension or change scenarios that various teams face. How aggressively would you buy VanVleet for the league if the Raptors couldn’t come to an agreement with him? How do you see its commercial value right now?
Hollinger: Kyle Lowry was the last example of the Raptors getting some value from the free agents who came out. If the Raptors had any clues that Fred would walk after the year, then yes, I think they should buy and determine their commercial value. I think I could get two first-round picks from a team, or one more prospect, if they knew I would sign with them again next summer.
That said, if the Raptors think he’s trying to get a bigger bag, but aren’t particularly concerned about it as a flight risk, they may feel more comfortable playing it. I think this is the most likely scenario. In this case, I think Toronto’s position should be more in line with keeping its ears open without being especially forced to take action unless someone rejects them with a crazy offer.
Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. (Douglas P. DeFelice / Getty Images)
Koreen: For me, the Siakam case is less interesting. As of Oct. 1, the Raptors can offer Siakam a three-year extension worth nearly $ 129 million. Unlike VanVleet, Siakam has no player options for 2023-24. It’s coming off a fantastic season, but that was after a poor game, though explained. We’ve seen how possible slow play extension conversations can sour relationships between team players. Is there any merit in trying to get Siakam’s signature in an extension a little below its maximum, or are you starting these conversations?
Hollinger: Any extension with Siakam will start at $ 40 million a year and won’t start until its 30-year season, making it a pretty risky deal from a Toronto perspective, even if an increasing limit can protect them from the worst. of that.
That being said, I think there’s a bit of an argument for taking care of him right now, which is that you’d rather sign him with a five-year contract when he’s 28 than do the same when he’s 30. The Siakam deal it will remain negotiable even after signing it, unless a hasty fall begins almost immediately.
My main argument against doing so is Scottie Barnes. It will be in a maximum deal (if not a supermax) from 2024-25, which means the Raptors have to think hard about who else they want to pay a lot of money to. They may decide that paying everything Siakam, VanVleet, Trent and OG Anunoby makes sense to them, but this is a very expensive quintet, and it still has no center. Historically, the Raptors will spend a bit on tax for the right team, but they won’t enroll in what the Clippers and Warriors are doing with nine-figure tax bills.
As a result, I think flexibility becomes the key word here. Toronto still has two years to extend the Siakam deal and would have the advantage even if it came to unrestricted free agency in 2024. I would play this one more year before I commit if I were in the main office of the Siakam. Raptors.
Koreen: With so few “sexy” teams having the most space this summer, and so many of the best free agents being so polarized, I feel like the non-contributing mid-level exception could be a more significant spending tool than usual this low season. , especially for teams looking to compete. A few questions:
- Do you think Chris Boucher or Thaddeus Young will run the full MLE?
- Do you have favorite goals that could be in that range?
- If you were the Raptors and had to consider possible extensions / increases for some or all of VanVleet, Siakam, Trent, Anunoby and Achiuwa in the coming seasons, how reluctant would be to give several years in this deal by any agent free, whether in-house or out-of-organization?
Hollinger: Let’s deal with them one by one.
For starters, I think Boucher is more likely to be interested in this price point than Young just because of the age difference, especially in a multi-year deal. The Raptors are well below the tax line that could theoretically sign both MLE size agreements with their limited bird rights and still have enough to use their own MLE, so they are in a good place. to preserve each. Of course, I don’t see either of them achieving more than the MLE.
I am going to…