Voting has closed for two crucial by-elections, in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, the results of which could play a key role in Boris Johnson’s political future.
The defeat in the two seats previously held by the Conservatives could rekindle a challenge for the Prime Minister from disgruntled Conservative MPs, especially if the Liberal Democrats annul a more than 24,000 majority in Tiverton and Honiton.
The Devon seat, which has been occupied by conservatives in their various incarnations for more than a century, has been represented by Neil Parish since 2010. Parish resigned after admitting he had seen pornography in the Commons.
The turnout in the by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton was 52%, the local authority said. Turnout in the 2019 general election was just under 72%.
Results are expected from 4am on Friday, and Wakefield is likely to declare first, as the West Yorkshire constituency is more geographically concentrated.
That vote also came after the incumbent Conservative MP resigned in disgrace. Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after being convicted of sexually assaulting a teenager.
While Labor is widely expected to win in Wakefield, a constituency it held steadily until the 2019 election, a Conservative defeat in Tiverton and Honiton would send significant concern across the Conservative parliamentary party.
If the Lib Dems win, it is believed that this would be the largest numerical majority annulled in a by-election, although there have been larger percentage changes in other seats.
The turnout in the Wakefield by-election was 39.09%, Wakefield council said. There were 27,205 verified ballots cast out of a total of 69,601 voters. The turnout in the 2019 general election was 64.15%.
Both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives have described the Devon race as too close to the call. However, the sheer magnitude of the Lib Dems ’efforts on the ground (on Wednesday, party activists handed out more than 40,000 leaflets) could tip the result in their favor.
Johnson is in Rwanda for the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit, before traveling to the G7 and NATO summits in Germany and Spain, keeping him out of the country for the next week. Speaking to Kigali broadcasters, Johnsons said: “I will see the results with interest, but always full of optimism and dynamism, but most experienced political observers know that midterm by-elections are never necessarily easy to to no government “.
A double loss, especially if there is a noticeably significant shift back to Labor in Wakefield, could push conservative backbenchers to restart efforts to oust Johnson in his absence.
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After this month’s censorship vote, in which 41% of Conservative MPs voted against it, according to party rules, it is safe for a year. However, these rules may change.
The pressure on Johnson will be especially intense if the Wakefield result indicates that Labor under Keir Starmer are making significant forays into these “red wall” seats, adding to the pressure of the resurgent Liberal Democrats.
In December, the Lib Dems took another bastion of rural, Brexit-minded conservatives, and annulled a nearly 23,000 majority to win the North Shropshire by-election, after former incumbent Owen Paterson left his post. work for a pressure scandal.
This followed the Lib Dems’ victory last June in Chesham and Amersham, a suburban belt constituency in north-west London, which sparked concern among Conservative MPs that dozens of similar “blue wall” seats they could fall in the midst of Johnson’s widespread aversion to the more liberal. -Conservative voters thought.
The feeling that Johnson is no longer an electoral asset, along with the controversies over the Downing Street parties that broke the blockade, which sparked the initial vote of confidence, could see Conservative MPs turn decidedly against the Prime Minister, although a new challenge is previously considered unlikely. autumn.