Donald J. Trump had presented this year’s primaries as a time to gauge his power, supporting dozens of candidates as he sought to keep a mark on his party unlike any previous president.
But after the first phase of the primary season ended on Tuesday, a month in which a quarter of U.S. states voted, the verdict was clear: Mr. Trump’s aura of untouchability in Republican politics has been drilled.
In more than five years, from the time he became president in January 2017 to May 2022, Trump had only seen voters reject half a dozen of his options in Republican primaries. But by the end of the month, that figure had more than doubled, and its biggest defeat came on Tuesday when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp defeated a Trump-backed rival by more than 50 percentage points. Three other Trump recruits challenging Kemp’s allies also fell in defeat.
Growing losses have encouraged Mr. Trump within the party to an extent not seen since early 2016 and has increased the chances that, if he reappears in 2024, he will face serious competition.
“I think a non-Trump with an organized campaign would have a chance,” said Jack Kingston, a former Georgia congressman who advised Trump’s first presidential campaign.
Mr. Trump is still very popular with Republicans and has a $ 100 million political war chest far north. But there has been a less visible sign of slippage: the slashed digital fundraising machine of Mr. Trump has begun to slow down. An analysis by The New York Times shows that their average daily contributions online have been declining every month for the past seven months that federal data is available.
Mr. Trump has gone from raising an average of $ 324,633 a day in September 2021 at WinRed, the Republican donation processing portal, to $ 202,185 in March 2022, although he has increased his political activities and profile.
Those close to Mr. Trump, and even non-Republicans, warn that the importance of the primary losses in which he himself was not on the ballot is not misunderstood. Mr. Kemp, for example, took pains not to say a crossword on the former president to avoid alienating his loyal base.
“To be the man, you have to beat the man,” said Jim Hobart, a Republican pollster at Public Opinion Strategies. “And until Trump withdraws from election politics or is hit by a Republican at the polls, his strength remains.”
Rivals, including his own former vice president Mike Pence, are preparing for possible presidential nominations as he and others visit key states like Iowa and step up their own fundraising operations. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has amassed a $ 100 million re-election war chest and is the talk of many donors, activists and voters interested in the future of Trumpism without Trump.
“Donald Trump was four years old,” said Cole Muzio, president of the Georgia-based Frontline Policy Council, a Georgia-based conservative Christian group that voted twice for Mr. Trump, however, is now looking for someone more “futuristic.”
“DeSantis is great to see where the left is going and play on the field where they will be, instead of reacting to what happened a couple of years ago,” Mr. Muzio, echoing the frustration that Mr. Trump said. he remains obsessed with denying his 2020 election defeat.
After the Georgia primary
The races on May 24 were one of the most consistent so far in the middle cycle of 2022.
Mr. Muzio, whose organization hosts former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as headliner for the fall gala, spoke as he waited to hear from Mr. Pence this week in Kennesaw, Ga., At a rally for Mr. Kemp, all the names he included in the “deep bank” of the 2024 Alternative Party.
Mr. Trump remains the most coveted endorsement of his party and has pushed for some big winners. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas virtually cleared the gubernatorial camp with her support, and Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina defeated a past governor to win her party’s nomination in the Senate.
However, the difficult season of primary school has added to the personal anxieties of Mr. Trump on his position, after trying to model himself as the leader of the old school party in his post-presidency. He has told councilors he wants to declare his candidacy or possibly set up an exploratory commission this summer.
Most Trump advisers believe he should wait until after the midterm elections to announce a candidacy. However, the feeling among Republicans that Mr. Trump has lost his political stature is consolidating, even among some of his close associates.
Updated
May 26, 2022, 7:00 p.m. ET
Taylor Budowich, a Trump spokesman, said the “undeniable reality” is that Republicans trust Mr. Trump to “fuel Republican victories in 2022 and beyond.”
“President Trump’s political operation continues to dominate American politics, raising more money and generating more victories than any other political organization, except none,” Budowich said.
Some Republican strategists have pointed to the fact that many of Mr. Trump got about a third of the votes: big winners (JD Vance in Ohio), losers (Jody Hice in Georgia, Janice McGeachin in Idaho, and Charles Herbster in Nebraska) and those who went to a count (Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania).
One-third of the party is at once an unrivaled base of inflexible loyalists, but a cohort far from majority.
Notably, Mr. Trump’s overall revenue among all Republicans online has also declined. The main fundraising committee of Mr. Trump accounted for 19.7% of what was raised by Republican campaigns and committees on WinRed during the last four months of 2021, but only 14.1% of what was raised during the first three months of 2022. of this The decrease is the result of other candidates voting more this year.
However, only 10 times since July 2021 has Mr. Trump accounted for less than 10 percent of the money raised on WinRed in a single day, and nine of those cases occurred in March 2022, data for the last month was available.
Vocal opposition is no longer limited to anti-Trump forces within the party, but is also evident in the pro-Trump current. When a triumphant Mr. Kemp, whom Trump had targeted for refusing to continue his efforts to subvert the 2020 presidential election, arrived in Nashville on Thursday to speak at a meeting of the Association of Republican Governors, he received a standing ovation. .
“There’s this temptation to participate in the wish casting where,‘ This is the moment Trump escapes! ’” Said Charlie Sykes, a conservative anti-Trump commentator. moving to Georgia was important. He drew a bright red line and the voters just crossed it. “
Understand the 2022 midterm elections
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Why are these semesters so important? This year’s race could tip the balance of power in Congress to Republicans, hampering President Biden’s agenda for the second half of his term. They will also test the role of former President Donald J. Trump as creator of GOP kings. Here’s what you need to know:
What are the midterm elections? The middle legislatures take place two years after a presidential election, in the middle of a presidential term, hence the name. This year, there are many seats at stake, including the 435 seats in the House, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and 36 of the 50 governors.
What do the middle parts mean for Biden? With small majorities in Congress, Democrats have struggled to pass Mr. Biden’s agenda. Republican scrutiny of the House or Senate would make the legislative goals of the president almost impossible.
What are the races to see? Only a handful of seats will determine whether Democrats retain control of the House over Republicans, and a single state could change power in the Senate 50-50. Here are 10 races to see in the House and Senate, as well as several key governor contests.
When do the key races take place? The primary glove is already up and running. There will be a lot of races in May in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, and more races will take place during the summer. The primaries run until September before the November 8 general election.
Deepen. What is redistricting and how does it affect the midterm elections? How does the survey work? How do you register to vote? We have more answers to your urgent questions in the medium term here.
Sykes said the current GOP is still very much “Trump’s party,” though he saw a distinction being developed “between Trumpism and Donald Trump himself.” The critical question, he said, is whether Republican voters are in the mood to “give him the gold watch and move on.”
Mr. Pence, whom Trump publicly condemned when rioters swarmed the Capitol during the ballot certification of the 2020 Electoral College, has made trips to the early states. One of the favorites of evangelical voters, he wanted to highlight his support for ending abortion rights while the Supreme Court prepares for a possible decision to overturn the historic Roe v. Wade ruling.
Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, a Republican who has been a hawk on immigration and China since before the Trump presidency, has positioned himself as a possible heir to Trumpism. Mr. Cotton has also made a contrast with Mr. Trump from the right, vocally criticizing the First Step Act, a criminal justice reform bill that the former president signed as law, as liberal law.
Two former senior Trump administration officials, Mr. Pompeo and Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador, are backing up, traveling and building their political infrastructure. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina recently announced another trip to Iowa and has been investing heavily in its digital fundraising operation.
Mr. Scott has said this will be his last term in the Senate. But he continues …