The second of two regular-season games between the Celtics and the Warriors is best remembered for Steph Curry’s injury in the second quarter. Marcus Smart went for a loose ball, curled up at Curry’s feet and the resulting sprain threatened to derail the Warriors’ season.
That was not the case. Jordan Poole exploded to another level during the month Curry lost. Curry’s foot healed in time for the first game of the playoffs. He looked refreshed when he returned. The Warriors won enough along the stretch to cling to a local track advantage in the playoff series that would end up important. This clever game no longer has substantial relevance.
So, in a review to prepare for the next NBA Finals matchup, the 20 minutes that preceded Curry’s injury generated the most significant data. Curry came out with four minutes left in the second quarter, and the Warriors only had 25 points at the time. They finished 88th, their fourth lowest-scoring night of the season, the least productive part of it came when Curry was still on the ground and Boston kept making stops.
This series faces the two best defenders of the regular season in the league. This will be a challenge for both offenders. But this is a somewhat simplistic story. Boston’s defense has been broadly ahead of any other unit since the calendar turned around in 2022. Its score in the last four months of the regular season was 105.2, three points of sharpest efficiency. than the next closest. This leads to the playoffs. The Celtics have a cumulative rating of 105.1 during their elimination from the Nets, Bucks and Heat.
The Warriors’ defense faded after Draymond Green’s injury in January. He has recovered since his return. They have mixed schemes and held up well when it has mattered the most in the last six weeks, producing a decent but unspectacular defensive rating of 111.0 during their 12-4 in the West Crown. They are not closing teams, but they have faced excellent offensives and are slowing them down enough to run with victories at the other end.
The Warriors have the best offensive score of 116.1 in the league in the playoffs. That’s four efficiency points above its regular season standings. The curry is in a groove. Poole has arrived. Klay Thompson always has great nights in his back pocket. Andrew Wiggins has found his role. Green has increased his aggression lately. Looney is devouring offensive rebounds. Most of us have clicked on this end.
So this is where the chess game of this series begins: the Warriors attack on the Boston defense. Neither has faced close to the challenge in these playoffs presented by the opposing unit. Which of them can keep you successful despite a three-tier jump?
The biggest question for warriors: How do they get enough?
The Warriors felt so free against the Mavericks for their lack of edge protection. Maxi Kleber blocked six shots in five games, but no one was afraid of Kleber when he entered the lane. It was not a deterrent.
The Memphis defense gave the Warriors more trouble in those playoffs, and that’s partly because Jaren Jackson Jr. he hit 15 shots in six games and upset many more. Poole had trouble getting to the edge against the Grizzlies, especially when Steven Adams got into the picture next to Jackson. Green scored five or fewer points in the first five games of the series.
This is what makes Robert Williams (and the health of his knee) such an important factor in this series. Jackson was second in the league in blocks this season. Williams was fourth. The Boston season kicked off when they changed their defensive scheme and had Williams guard the non-shooters and wander for hunting shots.
In that Warriors dominance in March, Williams had four blocks in 23 minutes. Two of them arrived at Poole, whose stealthy and creative finish on the edge has become such a vital part of the Warriors’ attack. Just imagine these next two plays against the Mavericks. They would probably have culminated in a couple of Poole bands. But against Williams, these are two of the most impressive blocks on the weak side you’ll see.
That was before Williams broke his left knee meniscus in late March. He missed the end of the regular season and rushed to the playoffs. Williams is still clearly hampered. He has missed a few games and seems questionable before the start of the session almost every night. He came out early in Game 6 of the Miami Series and was limping in Game 7, he could only play 15 minutes.
Horford has had six sensational weeks. He had 14 rebounds and a couple of blocks in 44 minutes, they gave it their all to close Miami. His size and defensive brain give Boston a big second that can upset the Warriors better than anyone who employs Dallas. But Williams, when he’s healthy and bloated, is the disruptive force that could really affect the Warriors ’game plan in the back.
This is where the scattered nature of the finals could help the Celtics. The series doesn’t start until Thursday, and there are two days off between each game, except for games 3 and 4. Normally, this extra break would be beneficial for the veteran team, and will certainly help the older Warriors. . bodies. But it is the Celtics who may find these major breakdowns more important due to the maintenance required for Williams and Smart.
Smart missed the first game in the Miami series due to a sprained right foot and then severely sprained his right ankle in Game 3. He returned and fed to finish the series. He estimated it was between “65 and 70 percent” and “the whole right side” is hit.
You know he’ll do anything to get to the final track. Expect him out there in the first game, taking on most of the charge against Curry. He cleverly darts around the screens, deftly reads the movement off the ball, and sticks to Curry better than almost any modern defender. It’s a better version of Dillon Brooks. But how does it affect your mobility? Is he physically able to chase Curry non-stop for the next two weeks?
The Celtics can switch schemes against the Warriors for their versatility. Horford likes to sit on the fall cover, and that was very successful against Miami’s fall shooters. But it is usually a death sentence against Curry, Thompson and Poole. Horford and even Williams, if involved in the action of the screen, will have to protect themselves more strongly and recover or change.
Grant Williams could run as a center ball. Boston’s best lineup to change everything against the Warriors is probably Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Grant Williams. Tatum and Brown are equipped to protect almost anyone. If Horford has space issues and Robert Williams is hampered, this unit could do a driving test of the first series.
But the Warriors must first force these tough decisions for Ime Udoka by creating cracks in the Boston midfield wall. It will help if they turn around and increase the speed of the transition as much as possible, but they also need to find a way to score in the middle of the track much better than the Heat could do.
Kyle Lowry couldn’t beat anyone. Tyler Herro was injured. Bam Adebayo was not very aggressive. Most of Miami’s possessions had just passed to Jimmy Butler who was trying to make his way to a difficult double.
The Warriors will stretch the Celtics to a much greater degree and attack from various angles, especially when Curry, Thompson and Poole share the court together. Wiggins is also a key. When the Warriors beat the Celtics in Boston in November, Wiggins had 27 points. He hit five 3s. Wiggins was fantastic against the Mavericks in almost every way, but only made 30 percent of his 3, including a 0 for 7 night in Game 5.
The first part of the series will test Boston’s ability to plan the game quickly and become familiar with the Warriors’ one-move attack. The Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Mavericks read the pattern and actions better as the series deepened, but all those defensive breakdowns in the early series doomed them.
Even in that March win, the Celtics weren’t perfect against the Warriors. They had a handful of breakdowns in the first half that led to 3s open. The warriors continued to make bricks.
In December, it was worse. Take a look at this possession at the end of the fourth quarter. Curry misses the 3rd, but what matters is the confusion. Smart and Josh Richardson (no longer part of the team) do not communicate on the switch. Robert Williams does not react in time. Curry climbs to a wide open 3 at the top of the key during a moment in the game when Boston absolutely can’t afford that kind of look.
Take a look at the slow motion. It’s such a big breakdown that Green is looking for someone to examine and can’t even find a player to come out to Curry.
The Celtics’ biggest question: Can they limit business losses?
Tatum has made 77 appearances in 18 playoff games. That’s 18 more than the next closest player and, on average, is an average of 4.3. Brown is making three losses per game. These wings are very talented, but prone to error.
Look at the playoff divisions. In their 12 wins, the Celtics spun the ball 12.8 times per game. In his six defeats, he jumps to 16.3 per game. They are more vulnerable when they don’t have to work constantly against their midfield defense.
But this first requires opponents to hit the loose ball to get out in transition. The Warriors have just played against a Dallas team that protects the ball better than anyone, operating in a slow and risk-averse environment of Luka Dončić. Boston’s wings are more risky and loose with basketball.
The likely return of Gary Payton II early in the series could be massive. He should be able to switch between Tatum and Brown and give Wiggins, Tatum’s long-awaited defender, a break when needed. He is also one of the best ballhawks in the league. Payton averaged 2.8 NBA steals …