FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES PHOTOGRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION
sara. October.
We have to admit that the FiveThirtyEight model didn’t see it coming: we gave the Celtics only 12 percent to return to the Preseason Finals, and the Warriors got an abysmal 0.5 percent. We could forgive our hesitation in Boston: the green team didn’t turn it on until mid-season, and we’ve been firmly on the Celtics train ever since.
But Golden State, well … our model hasn’t loved the Warriors all season: even after she started 18-2, we still gave them an 11 percent chance of reaching the final, and even and all now that they came out on top in the final. West, we still don’t give them much of a chance. So let’s start with this: we give the Warriors only a 20 percent chance of winning it all. Are you buying or selling the Warriors?
zatzman (Louis Zatzman, contributor to FiveThirtyEight): I’m buying the Warriors without hesitation at this price.
dubin (Jared Dubin, contributor to FiveThirtyEight): Definitely buying at 20 percent. They are the favorites of the betting market.
james.jackson (James L. Jackson, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I’m buying more Warriors than I’ve ever seen.
dre.waters (Andres Waters, FiveThirtyEight contributor): BUYER … but I should say I’m a Warriors fan. And I fully accept that bias.
sara.ziegler: So Dre is a fan, and I get it. But if you were to throw our model out the window (which I don’t recommend, LOL), what chance would you assign to the Warriors in this series?
dre.waters: Sorry, Sara, this model is out the window. 75 percent, minimum.
james.jackson: My personal metric system is a little rusty, but could it give Golden State a 60 to 70 percent chance of winning?
dre.waters: That’s what we like to hear James! Any other receiver?
james.jackson: Luckily, Dre is objectively biased!
dubin: As the person who wrote our season preview, I have to keep in mind that the model was especially low on the Warriors before the season for two reasons:
- He saw Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Gary Payton II as the only positive net players in the projected rotation. This turned out to be wrong, as at least according to RAPTOR, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Otto Porter and Jordan Poole were also positive during the regular season.
- He was greatly penalized by the presence of Klay Thompson in the rotation, by the way he handles long-term injuries. Klay ended up being very good, all things considered, even if he wasn’t the same player who was pre-ACL and Achilles’ Tears. (He didn’t play enough minutes to qualify for the RAPTOR standings, but he finished very close to neutral, rather than a clear negative. Given the way his shot doubles the opposing defenses, I’d say this makes its impact less.)
james.jackson: Klay will be very important this series. Golden State is 5-1 when it scores at least 20 points this postseason.
zatzman: I just found out why RAPTOR hates Klay so much! He has played so well individually, but his impact numbers have been rotten. Something is bad luck (opponents make very hard shots when playing defense, and Steph misses fairly easy shots when playing attack), but it’s not quite what it used to be. Still, the fact that the Warriors have been so dominant with the impact of Klay so muted is almost positive for them in the future, right? Its impact could easily be huge in this series, which RAPTOR does not expect.
sara.ziegler: Or maybe RAPTOR knows the truth about Klay …
(Or maybe not.)
dubin: I think one key is that the defenses don’t treat it as if its impact is silenced. They’re still freaked out because it’s KLAY THOMPSON. And with good reason, as this year he still hit almost 39 percent of his three.
james.jackson: The Warriors have played the second most minutes of clutch time this postseason (30) while shooting 50 percent in these situations. Boston is shooting just 37 percent when it’s late and close, so I’m curious as to who thrives within those margins.
zatzman: We hope the games are close when it’s too late ?!
sara.ziegler: No one told the rest of the playoff teams.
james.jackson: Both teams have played with their food this postseason, so I wouldn’t be surprised!
dubin: I’m very close to 50-50 in this series. That “playing with your food” aspect of both teams leaves me out. They both have these weird stretches where they are only directly giving the ball to the other team. And both defenses are excellent, which can cause this kind of stretch to opponents.
zatzman: I’m with you, Jared, probably more optimistic in Boston than everyone else here. His defense could take things out of Golden State that we haven’t seen this year yet.
dubin: None of these teams have played so far with one team like the other in the playoffs. The playoff series are very different bodies, so the way they have played so far has very little effect on how they will play in the final.
I will be interested to see how many Looney and the Time Lord we have in this series. How often will both coaches be tempted to be small?
dre.waters: Time Lord is still a hilarious nickname, by the way.
james.jackson: Really, tbh.
dubin: Sometimes I like to call him the Time Lord, just to cheer me up a little.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
zatzman: In my opinion, Boston’s best chance is to change everything to the point of attack to try to deny the Golden State shot. Switching the pick and roll is the kind of high-volume defense that Steph and Poole have fought hardest, and Boston has been one of the best and most frequent users of the switch. Robert Williams doesn’t change as much as the other Boston greats, so the Time Lord could see his minutes reduced.
dre.waters: We know the Warriors love to be small: their five-man lineup of Curry, Poole, Thompson, Wiggins and Green has been the team’s second-best score in terms of net rating (+15.7 points) for every 100 possessions) this postseason. . So I could easily get to a point where we don’t see much of Looney. But Williams is a bigger question for me.
james.jackson: Al Horford’s ability to space the ground could make Williams’ shortened minutes easier to digest. Horford has 28 catch-and-shoot threes this postseason, third in the league and most of the team.
dubin: Williams looked like he could barely move in Game 7. The Warriors don’t do 100 pick and rolls per night, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them test their lateral mobility that way. (The Celtics would probably only change in advance to avoid this and start another tactical chess game that way.)
sara.ziegler: I’m fascinated by how these chess moves will be played. What are the specific confrontations that you have all eyes on?
james.jackson: Whoever is in charge of angering Steph in the finals often fascinates me. Steph vs. Marcus Smart could be my favorite showdown.
zatzman: Okay! Steph is arguably one of the best off-ball players of all time, and Smart is one of the only players fast enough to stay with him and strong enough to take him off his cuts.
james.jackson: I have no predictions of failure.
sara.ziegler: OMG, I can’t wait to see them face off.
dubin: Smart vs. Steph, 100 percent, and then what the Warriors do with Jaylen Brown. I imagine Klay will have the first crack, but maybe things will change a bit. And do they ever try something like Draymond to Jayson Tatum or Brown? Maybe Draymond to Smart to change Tatum-Smart’s pick and roll? I think this side of the ball is more interesting because it’s less straightforward.
zatzman: Draymond will watch everything, everywhere, all at once.
Sara.ziegler: Draymond al metavers.
james.jackson: Who wants to guess the Warriors player who has changed the net rating of Golden State in these playoffs the most?
zatzman: Andrew Wiggins! Extraordinary defender, and probably the Tatum-stop of this series.
james.jackson: That’s right, Louis! For 16.2 points for every 100 possessions!
It will also be interesting to see how the Boston greats attack Looney. Without James Wiseman, Looney has to keep things low for Golden State as he did during those playoffs, and the speed with which Boston puts him in serious trouble could shorten the Warriors’ margin of error.
dubin: “Sense Wiseman” jajajaja.
Does it still exist?
james.jackson: In our hearts and fantasy projections 2022-23!
dre.waters: Yeah Al that sounds pretty crap to me, Looks like BT aint for me either. But I’d be interested to see what Payton does if he plays significant minutes in this series. If he plays, I think they will let him try to protect Brown or Smart.
dubin: Oh, and the return of GPII could be huge, as it would give the Warriors another choice to the guards.
sara.ziegler: Jinx!
james.jackson: The Warriors also love to use GPII as an offensive screener. It reverses your attack very well, so it could be a fun layer!
dre.waters: He also made a few big baskets for the team this postseason.
Dubin: The Celtics do that too. Tatum-Smart and Tatum-Derrick White’s pick-and-roll combinations have been some of his best all year long (and especially the last round).
zatzman: With Payton and maybe even Porter and Andre Iguodala returning, the Warriors are very deep in the guard and wing and very shallow in the big spot. From James’ point of view, if Looney gets in trouble, it will matter a lot! Both teams make a lot of three, so if someone explodes on the edge, they will …