NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg probably did not intend to steal anyone’s thunder, but it was difficult for anyone at the G7 summit in Germany to ignore the man on Monday.
Affectionate, sometimes seemingly uncomfortable, the former Prime Minister of Norway has been a constant, usually unperturbed, presence on the international stage, especially during the years when Donald Trump was president of the United States.
Discreetly, he pulled the curtain on the early decisions of NATO leaders later this week in Madrid, Spain.
When it is said that 300,000 Western troops, drawn from 30 countries, will be put in a higher state of readiness; It’s fair to say that people sit back and notice, especially with the horrors of Ukraine on display and with Russia’s nuclear missiles last spring.
The announcement represents an increase of almost eight times the size of NATO’s response force, compared to the existing 40,000 soldiers, crew and sailors.
Separately, but in tandem, the Western military alliance plans to convert its eight battalion-sized combat groups that are already in Eastern Europe on the Russian border, including the one led by Canadians in Latvia, in full combat brigades, effectively doubling their size, depending on the contingent and its composition.
Stocks of additional military equipment will be scattered to preposition points in Europe and will be occupied by tens of thousands of reinforcements that would be applied to the eastern flank of the continent with Russia in the event of a crisis.
“Overall, this constitutes the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defense since the Cold War,” Stoltenberg said at NATO headquarters on Monday.
All of this will have profound implications, especially for Canada.
‘Canada has already taken a step forward’: Stoltenberg
Both Britain and Germany, which lead multinational battle groups in the other two Baltic states – Lithuania and Estonia – have already indicated that they intend to strengthen their presence in countries where they have troops.
Canada has remained silent.
Originally conceived as a reassuring presence for Eastern European allies nervous about Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the battle groups have been described a little worse as “travel cables”. for NATO; big enough to save time, but just that.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Baltic leaders have demanded something more substantive.
Canada and Spain had been the two largest troop contributors in Latvia for nearly five years, but after the total invasion of Ukraine, Denmark sent several hundred reinforcements to the country.
NATO first seeks these countries to further fill the ranks in Latvia and, in particular, Canada as a leader of the force.
See: Western military aid to Ukraine “is not enough”: NATO Secretary General:
Western military aid to Ukraine “is not enough”: the NATO Secretary General
“When I say they need more, they need more,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said of military aid shipments to Ukraine in an exclusive Canadian interview with Power & Politics. “The price of not supporting Ukraine will be much higher than the price you pay today supporting.”
Perhaps even more politically and institutionally worrying for Canada will be expectations about increased NATO response strength and the demand that troops remain in a higher state of readiness.
“To do that, we’ll have to invest more,” Stoltenberg said.
Last winter, Defense Minister Anita Anand indicated that 3,400 soldiers, sailors and crew were booked under the old NATO reinforcement plan.
Speaking to CBC News Network’s Power & Politics on Monday afternoon, Stoltenberg said there are expectations that Canada will have to meet.
“There will be specific targets for different countries, including Canada,” he said. “Now I can’t share with you the exact number of Canada, but what I can say is that Canada has already increased.”
Canadian Forces Recruitment Challenges
Canada sent modest reinforcements to Latvia, an artillery battery, last spring.
Last weekend, the Department of National Defense quietly announced that two of its coastal defense vessels, ships originally designed as minesweepers (HMCS Summerside and HMCS Kingston), were joining the deterrent mission of NATO in Europe, with the total number of Canadian Navy ships. in the region to four.
However, it is in demand that the troops remain in a higher state readiness, where the actual accumulation of cash will have to take place.
Being prepared means being trained and being trained costs money and there have to be troops, crew and sailors around to exercise and the Canadian military faces recruitment challenges.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg greets Canadian troops during a visit to Adazi military base in Kadaga, Latvia, in March. 8. (Roman Koksarov / The Associated Press)
The country’s top military commander, General Wayne Eyre, said at a defense conference last fall that the Canadian army’s recruitment efforts could take up to seven years to recover from the aftermath of both the crisis. sexual and pandemic misconduct.
Figures presented last fall showed that the full-time army had 7,500 fewer people than its required force, a huge gap in a regular force of about 70,000.
Filling the rows will be expensive and time consuming.
Last spring, Eyre said the military’s level of readiness was “one of the things that keeps me awake at night.”
The federal budget, introduced last spring, increases defense spending by $ 8 billion over five years.
Stephanie von Hlatky, an associate professor and defense policy expert at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said NATO forces were expected to expand in Eastern Europe, but wondered how they would react. nations when the accounts begin to arrive.
Political cohesion across the alliance, not just in Canada, will be an issue, he said.
“I believe people’s assessments of the situation when they say it will be a long war and that is why I identified political cohesion as the main challenge for NATO in the future,” von Hlaky said. “Because even though in the short term everyone has concentrated [around Ukraine and NATO’s response]in the long run, it is really unpredictable to see how this political unity will be maintained. “
This political unity will be put to the test even further as Canada faces increasing pressure to meet NATO’s benchmark target of spending two per cent of its gross domestic product on defense.
“I expect all allies, including Canada, to invest more and meet the two percent guideline,” Stoltenberg said.
At present, Canada spends 1.5 per cent of its GDP on defense and, even more, does not have a clear and stated plan to achieve the alliance’s goal.